The state resided to the northeast of a tightening surface low that was tracking northward into eastern Nebraska. As a result, surface winds were sustained out of the east and at times gusting into the 40 to 50 plus mph range.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
The state resided to the northeast of a tightening surface low that was tracking northward into eastern Nebraska. As a result, surface winds were sustained out of the east and at times gusting into the 40 to 50 plus mph range. While many locations were able to handle the gusty conditions, a few pockets of the state did experience damage with wind gusts possibly reaching severe criteria due to collapsing showers and/or ability to mix down stronger winds aloft.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 11:28 AM CST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1228 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019 ...Updated for 18z Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Today through Monday/ Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019 The primary themes through this period will initially be windy, wet, and cool conditions later today into this evening. This will be followed by a continued active pattern to varied degrees through the holiday weekend, along with a return to more seasonal warmth and humidity. At onset the weather is fairly inactive with the large OK/KS/MO MCS precluding much in the way of warm/theta-e advection and precip this far north. This will change into midday however as both thermodynamic and kinematic forcing mature and lift into Iowa as the upper system begins ejecting out of the Rockies. Generally weak convective is expected to lift out of KS on the nose of the forcing lobe and dry slot with a period of at least moderate rains. Overall the severe potential is low due to limited instability, especially through midday, however there is some conditional elevated hail threat due to the strong effective shear as some token MUCAPE eventually materializes. It is again conditional, but the latest RAP runs also suggest a small window for surface based convection and severe potential south by afternoon or early evening with 1000-1500 j/kg, nil cap and very strong 0-6km shear. The potential is certainly not great, but if something can develop in this parameter space all modes of severe weather, include a brief, isolated tornado, would be possible. Regarding winds today, have expanded the current Wind Advisory farther south and east as easterly sustained winds are expected to reach or exceed 30 mph for several hours as the surface low lifts into NE. HREF 4hr max wind probabilities also suggest winds during the precip later today could exceed criteria so although the threat is technically convective rather than synoptic the sensible weather perception will be the same and coincident. The east winds and clouds will keep temps cool today as well with little rebound. In fact projected highs will only be a few degrees off record low maxes for today. Have opted to not issue any flood headlines as of yet. One and three hour precip amounts should remain below flash flood guidance, the precip should be fairly progressive, and even the accentuated HREF localized probability matched mean 24hr QPF only shows small swaths of 1.5-2 inch potential. The wind and precip potential will diminish later tonight leading to break Wednesday with temps returning to seasonal values. The persistent SW flow aloft will re-develop a frontal boundary to our south later in the day however which will eventually bring some weak convection potential south. By Thursday the next iteration of the western CONUS trough will cycle through the Rockies inducing a surge of warm/theta-e advection and warm front development into IA. The synoptic forcing and return of 1500 or so j/kg MUCAPEs and sufficient effective shear will bring at least some severe potential along with at least moderate rains. The 00z GFS QPF is more aggressive than the ECMWF, but the 00z NAEFS and 12z ECMWF ensemble both peg extremely high climatological percentiles for specific humidity, precipitable water and integrated moisture transport so this will be a window to monitor for potential heavy rain and flooding into Friday as it reaches southeast sections. Some deterministic runs suggest precipitable waters may approach two inches with extreme warm cloud depths. The weather for the Memorial Day weekend is a little more nebulous. Weak upper level ridging into the central Plains will alter our pattern and persistent SW flow aloft with overall weaker flow through the lower troposphere and ill-defined surface boundaries. There will be chances for showers and storms off and on, but confidence in details is low as the GFS and ECMWF have the boundary back and forth between IA and MO, which will of course also be altered by mesoscale outflow boundaries. Although the surface flow will be weaker, the upper ridge will not be sufficient to push the stronger flow aloft far enough north. This will keep adequate deep shear in place for at least some severe weather potential with any convection. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon/ Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019 Widespread MVFR and spots of IFR conditions will prevail as showers spread northward and slightly eastward this afternoon. Best chance for thunder will be over the southern terminals so have VCTS mention in those locations this afternoon. Strong and gusty winds from the east will continue into the evening and while the official 18z TAFs do not mention, there is the potential for brief strong wind gusts to 45 to 50 knots as showers/storms pass and even a bit after the rain ends later this afternoon into mid- evening. IFR conditions will become more common overnight, but as the showers end the ceilings will improve into VFR after midnight into tomorrow morning. Winds will not be as strong, but will remain breezy and veer to the southwest by the end of the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007- 015>017-023>028-033>039-049-050. && DISCUSSION...Small AVIATION...Ansorge
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Des Moines IA 436 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-049-050-221100- Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo- Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun- Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama- 436 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northern and central Iowa. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight Strong east winds are expected this afternoon and evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the area. A few thunderstorms may produce gusty winds as well, along with moderate rainfall. Minor flooding will also continue along the West Fork Des Moines River near Estherville for an extended period. Please refer to the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for further details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Intermittent thunderstorm chances are in the forecast Thursday Night into the weekend. There some potential for heavy rain late Thursday, and other severe weather, heavy rain and flooding potential will be better determined in the coming days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters may be needed off and on through the Memorial day weekend, especially around Thursday Night. IAZ044>048-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-221100- Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk- Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams- Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne- Appanoose-Davis- 436 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and southern Iowa. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight A few thunderstorms with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rains are possible today and early this evening. A few severe storms are also possible far south as well. The severe potential is low overall, but a brief storm with a tornado, large hail or damaging wind are all possible if something did occur. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Intermittent thunderstorm chances are in the forecast starting Wednesday Night and lasting off and on into the weekend. There is some potential for heavy rain late Thursday, and other severe weather, heavy rain and flooding potential will be better determined in the coming days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters may be needed off and on through the Memorial day weekend, especially around Thursday Night. Small
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1233 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019 IAZ044>046-057-058-070-071-081-082-092-093-212100- Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Cass-Adair-Adams-Union- Taylor-Ringgold- Including the cities of Denison, Carroll, Jefferson, Audubon, Exira, Guthrie Center, Panora, Bayard, Casey, Atlantic, Greenfield, Stuart, Adair, Fontanelle, Corning, Creston, Bedford, Lenox, New Market, and Mount Ayr 1233 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019 ...Brief, Strong Wind Gusts Early This Afternoon As Rain Ends... Midday surface observations over southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas have shown a brief period of gusty winds. Wind gusts of 40 to as high as 50 mph could be possible as the rain dissipates and ends through early to mid-afternoon. These strong wind gusts may have little to no rain or thunder and may begin to arrive as early as 1pm along a Denison to Atlantic to Bedford line and continue to move northeastward. Ansorge
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trained spotter reported non-thunderstorm wind damage that included three inch tree limbs down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, May 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 822235.