High Wind in California, May 21 to 22, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
412 AM PDT Tue May 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled and cooler than normal weather pattern
will persist over the central California interior through
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Our reprieve from wet weather, as short-lived
as it's been, is about ready to come to an end. As of this
writing another cold front is approaching from the north.
The front will move southward through the central California
interior this morning accompanied by some showers in many
locations. In its wake, winds will become gusty this afternoon
and evening in the San Joaquin Valley and in the Kern county
mountains and desert. A wind advisory is in effect for the
Kern county mountains and desert for this afternoon and
evening. In the normally windy locations below the passes,
winds could gust to 60 mph or higher later today.

Aside from the wind, the atmosphere will become unstable this
afternoon as another cold core low now over the Pacific
Northwest settles southward into California. Unfortunately
that means there is a renewed threat of isolated thunderstorms
with hail, briefly heavy rain and gusty winds over our CWA
this afternoon into early this evening. Showers associated with
this storm system will be most numerous over the eastern third
of the San Joaquin Valley as well as the foothills and higher
elevations of the Sierra. This storm system appears to be limited
on moisture, so the amount of precipitation it brings into the
central California interior will be considerably less than the
storm system that moved through here last weekend. Nonetheless,
it's going to bring a return of wintry weather to elevations
above 5500 feet during the next 24 hours. Snow accumulations
from this storm will range from just an inch or two in the Kern
county mountains, up to 5 inches in the Tulare county mountains
to as much as 8 to 12 inches over the highest elevations of
Yosemite National Park. Hikers and campers over the high Sierra
should be prepared for snow and unseasonably cold temperatures
today and tonight. Even in the lower elevations such as the San
Joaquin Valley, high temperatures today will remain below 70
degrees. That's a good 15 degrees below normal for this time of
year.

Otherwise, the storm will bring a scattering of showers to the
district tonight as the center of this low pressure system moves
directly over central California. Although this storm system
slowly exits into the southeastern part of the state Wednesday,
showers will probably linger over the mountains and desert through
at least Wednesday evening. Keep in mind that this storm will not
be in any hurry to move very far away from us later this week.
A building ridge of high pressure over the southeastern part of
the country could force this low pressure system to retrograde
back into California later in the week which in turn could bring
showers back into much of the central California interior
Thursday, especially over the mountains and desert.

If we get another respite from wet weather this week, it might be
on Friday. The models forecast a dry northwest flow aloft over
central California by then, much like the pattern we were in
yesterday.  It's now looking like Memorial Day weekend could trend
cooler and unsettled again as yet another Gulf of Alaska low tracks
southward down the California coast. If so, showers (and possibly
thunderstorms) will become a daily part of our weather pattern
Saturday through Memorial Day, especially over the mountains.
Otherwise, temperatures during the next 7 days will average cooler
than normal. Friday and next Tuesday look as if they'll be our
warmest days with thermometer readings possibly topping the 80
degree mark in the San Joaquin Valley, but that's still a good
4 to 7 degrees below normal.  If it's any consolation, high
temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley could easily be over 100
degrees this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions are possible at MER, MCE, and FAT from around 15z
today until about 03z Wednesday. MVFR conditions are conceivable at
VIS and BFL after 18z today. Prevailing MVFR conditions, with
increasing areas of mountain obscuring IFR conditions, along the
west slopes and higher elevations of the Southern Sierra Nevada
through the next 24 hours. Strong, gusty westerly winds through and
below Kern County mountain passes and in the Kern County desert from
about 19z today until around 07z Wednesday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR THE CAZ192.

Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight PDT tonight CAZ195>199.

&&

public...Durfee
avn/fw...BS
synopsis...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford