A frontal boundary, combined with a series of outflow boundaries, provided the necessary lift in an unstable and sheared environment to allow for strong to locally severe thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A frontal boundary, combined with a series of outflow boundaries, provided the necessary lift in an unstable and sheared environment to allow for strong to locally severe thunderstorms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 13, 10:51 AM EST, 2 hours 54 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1151 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1149 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 A cold front will sweep across the area today, with showers and thunderstorms impacting mainly northeastern Indiana into northwestern Ohio. A risk of damaging winds does exist with the strongest storms, with any threat for severe weather existing by 8 pm EDT. High temperatures today will rise into the low to mid 80s with the warmest temperatures east of Interstate 69. Lows tonight will drop back into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Convective potential/severe threat today will continue to be the primary short term concern. A retreating warm front from west central Lower Michigan into northwest Ohio continues to be a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms early this morning. Locally pooled moisture with this retreating warm front is allowing 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPEs to be realized. Should see continued eastward progression of this isolated storm risk over the next few hours as the warm front continues to retreat to the northeast out of local area. Primary area of ongoing convection remains across northern Illinois/Lake Michigan/southeast Wisconsin. This area of showers and thunderstorms has been aided in its longevity by increasing upper level support with upstream large scale upper level trough beginning to lift out of the northern Plains, along with good moisture pooling via pre-frontal trough type feature. Current indications would suggest best chance of additional storms with this complex across southwest Lower Michigan into far NW Indiana over the next several hours. Should gradually see a continued weakening trend, but outflows emanating from this convection could aid in additional scattered/shower storm development across western portions of the area into the mid morning hours. A 90-100 knot upper jet streak, sampled in last evenings RAOB data from KMPX will continue to wrap around upper low this morning, with some additional deepening of sfc low pressure across northern Minnesota/southwest Ontario today. Better pooled moisture with narrow pre-frontal trough will enter northwest Indiana after daybreak and spread eastward across the I-69 corridor this afternoon. This pooled moisture axis should give rise to moderate instability axis with MLCAPES on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg immediately preceding the associated cold front, although still some uncertainty as to exact instability magnitudes given uncertainty in sky cover from upstream convective remnants. Guidance continues to depict increasing 500-300 Q-vector convergence signal overspreading the area by early afternoon in association with the stronger upper trough, with best signal for this forcing across Lower Michigan/extreme northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio. Local area also should become increasingly positioned in more favorable right entrance region of the aforementioned upper jet streak by early afternoon. Given all of the above, expecting a fairly early initiation or re-intensification of convection again toward midday or early afternoon. Timing of above features would favor initiation west of I-69 corridor in the 16Z-18Z timeframe, overspreading areas along and east of I-69 corridor from 19Z-21Z. Deep layer shear profiles appear to be maximized across the north in response to a 50 knot 500 mb upper jet streak, but still respectable deep layer shear of 25 to 35 knots across the south. Low level flow profiles will veer fairly quickly later this morning, but unidirectional speed shear should have enough magnitude for some threat of supercell structures, particularly across the north-northeast where SPC has placed portions of forecast in a slight risk for severe storms. Mid level lapse rates do not appear to be particularly steep, but magnitude of instability could support some marginally severe hail threat. Wind still appears to be the greatest threat this afternoon however. 0-3km/0-6 km shear profiles appear to be more southwest today, with potentially a decent component of these shear vectors parallel to the boundary. This setup could support a fairly quick congealing of initial potential discrete convection during the mid afternoon hours, posing at least the possibility of increasing organized wind threat along and east of the I-69 corridor. Time window of severe should be relatively short in duration, roughly from 17Z-23Z. Weather to quiet down tonight as front clears the area, with cooler and less humid conditions building into the area. Saturday should feature mostly sunny conditions with highs near seasonable levels. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Flow deamplification for latter part of the weekend will allow for progressive short wave pattern across northern CONUS. One such wave should reach western Great Lakes late Saturday night/early Sunday with strengthening advective forcing across southern Great Lakes. Low level air mass will be initially quite dry, but could be enough elevated instability due to strong advection for isolated shower/storm threat during this period across the north. Upper ridging should amplify across central CONUS early next week which should keep richer low level moisture across the MS Valley. This pattern may not allow level thermal ridge to fully build into the area, so have kept primarily a dry forecast going with seasonable to above normal temperatures going. Very little confidence in precip forecast post-Wednesday with large spread in deterministic/ensemble solutions and large run to run volatility among individual models regarding progression of next significant eastern Pacific wave. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1145 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Main TAF focus will be KFWA where convection is expected to develop near the site and move east. Confidence on impacts to the site remain low, warranting no more than the VCTS for the moment. If anything occurs, it should only be for a 30 to maybe 60 minute period. Winds will eventually shift to the west behind the front with VFR conditions prevailing. Threat for convection is almost zero at KSBN with any potential being right at the start of the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. && SYNOPSIS...Marsili SHORT TERM...Marsili LONG TERM...Marsili AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Northern Indiana 517 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 INZ003-012-013-020-MIZ077-140930- La Porte-Starke-Pulaski-White-Berrien- 517 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 /417 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected later this morning through early afternoon. A few storms may produce gusty winds to 40 mph and brief heavy rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. An isolated thunderstorm is possible Saturday night into Sunday across far northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan. Severe weather is not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. INZ004>006-008-014>017-022>027-032>034-MIZ078-079-140930- St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko- Whitley-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford- Jay-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI- 517 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late this morning through the mid to late afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with isolated damaging winds and brief heavy rainfall as the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon. INZ007-009-018-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-140930- Steuben-De Kalb-Allen IN-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH- Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH- 517 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and northwest Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early evening. Some of the storms this afternoon into early evening could be strong to severe with the primary threats of isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts and brief heavy rain. Isolated large hail is also possible, but appears to be a secondary threat. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon. LMZ043-046-140930- New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI- 517 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning. There is a potential that a few of the storms may produce wind gusts in excess 30 knots and pose locally hazardous conditions for small craft. Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected this afternoon into this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. An isolated thunderstorm is possible late Saturday night into Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1205 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0438 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW NORTH MANCHESTER 41.00N 85.80W
09/12/2019 WABASH IN PUBLIC
PHOTOS SUBMITTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF TREE
SNAPPED AT BASE AND CORN BLOW DOWN ON STATE
ROAD 114 WEST OF NORTH MANCHESTER. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
CMThe Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:47 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management officials reported a few utility poles were blown down in a few locations across the county.
Emergency management officials reported the whole upper section of a two foot diameter tree was broken.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 852146, 852147.