S. led to above normal temperatures during the middle part of September.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PSR wrote it up.
High pressure over the western U.S. led to above normal temperatures during the middle part of September. Three direct heat fatalities were reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 13, 4:34 PM MST, 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 434 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2019 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Conditions will continue to moisten through Saturday with chances for strong to severe thunderstorms increasing markedly across south-central Arizona. The threat for storms will continue Sunday, but will mainly be relegated to eastern Arizona. A low pressure system moving into the Great Basin early next week will allow for mostly slight chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday before drier and somewhat cooler air overspreads the Desert Southwest. && .DISCUSSION... Western extension of the southern CONUS ridge remains sprawled across the Desert Southwest. In the lower levels, conditions are exceptionally dry with dewpoints in the 30s, though with the ridge axis lifting northward, low-level mixing ratios will increase steadily to around 10 g/kg through tomorrow. Latest runs of the HRRR indicate that isolated showers will remain relegated to southeastern Arizona this afternoon. Biggest weather impact will instead be the above normal temperatures, however highs will fall well short of daily records. Focus will shift to an increased threat of monsoon hazards Saturday as the models suggest ingredients will come together to produce strong to severe storms across portions of the area. Latest streamline analysis depicts an upper low near the northern Baja Peninsula, which will drift eastward into northern Sonora, yielding widespread jet-forced ascent across eastern Arizona. Convection will ensue across southeastern Arizona, which the models suggest will induce an organized inverted trough/vort max across eastern Arizona. This will consequently increase the easterly component to the steering flow off the higher terrain. Local/regional CAMS indicate that additional storms in the lower deserts are expected to initiate, given the abundant MUCAPE > 1000 J/kg. Although model soundings indicate inhibition (due to a mid-level warm layer) will be present to some degree, it is expected to erode during the afternoon and should be overcome by any downslope-propagating outflow boundary. Latest HREF > 40 dbz paintball and max surface winds suggest the most intense cells Saturday will be capable of producing strong to severe winds, microbursts and frequent lightning. Although PWATs are not projected to be off the chart by any means, heavy rain and subsequent flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly across the urban areas of the Valley. Forecast PoPS were increased above the latest NBM guidance and are some of the highest we've seen so far this Monsoon season. SPC has also placed much of the forecast area into a Marginal Risk for severe storms, however this could be upgraded as the situation evolves. A more distinct low pressure system (as depicted in both the operational GFS and ECMWF) will likely emerge across eastern Arizona Sunday, again resulting in favorable conditions for thunderstorms. However, the southwesterly flow will generally focus activity across eastern Arizona, though there will be a discernible risk of flash flooding across portions of the Gila County, where PWATS remain anomalously high. Further west in the lower deserts, rain coverage will likely not be quite as widespread, given the environment will be more subsident behind the departing low pressure system. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... The track of the Pacific trough for early next week now looks to be even farther north with the low center tracking across northern Nevada into southern Idaho. We will still fall under cyclonic flow aloft early next week and there should be enough lingering low level moisture for some showers and thunderstorms mainly on Monday and mostly over the high terrain north and east of Phoenix. Slight chance PoPs are still in for the south-central Arizona lower deserts, but it seems likely most of the activity will be over the more favored upslope foothills areas just north and east of Phoenix. Drying aloft will increase into Tuesday, ending rain chances across the lower deserts, but there may still be some isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms over the eastern Arizona high terrain. Temperatures will lower back to near normal readings beginning Sunday with highs sticking around the century mark across the deserts through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2345Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Dry, tranquil conditions expected at the terminals this evening with thunderstorms mostly remaining across southeast Arizona. As a result of this activity, a weak southeasterly outflow may reach the terminals after 04Z but speeds should remain light. Westerly winds will transition later tonight to the southeast. Going into Saturday afternoon, winds look to maintain a southeasterly component with no typical diurnal switch to the west during the afternoon. Tomorrow afternoon/evening looks to be an active period where south-central Arizona will experience increasing thunderstorm activity. The main threats with these storms will be strong, gusty winds along with lightning. Maintained VCTS in the TAF after 23Z at KIWA and 00Z at KPHX, with gusts up to 30 kt possible. Areas of blowing dust may also affect area terminals, with visibilities perhaps down to 5 SM at KIWA. Otherwise, FEW- SCT mid and high level clouds are expected through late tomorrow afternoon with bases generally remaining aoa 10 kft, before thicker cloud cover with bases down to 8 kft possible with increased thunderstorm activity. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No significant aviation concerns expected through the period as light winds and VFR conditions prevail. Wind speeds through the next 24 hours look to remain below 8 kts becoming light and variable at times. Otherwise, FEW-SCT high clouds will be possible through the TAF period. Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday through Friday: A series of low pressure systems will move through the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin next week. Conditions will remain sufficiently moist ahead of the first system for a chance of showers, mainly north and east of Phoenix Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, these storm systems will reinforce the westerly flow, which will result in a gradual drying trend and near normal temperatures. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && DISCUSSION...Hirsch PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman AVIATION...Rogers/Smith FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heat. Local standard time, as filed.
Two direct fatalities were reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender and circumstances unavailable.
One direct fatality was reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender and circumstances unavailable.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat, Central Phoenix | 2019-09-13 | Unknown | Direct | ||
| Heat, Central Phoenix | 2019-09-13 | Unknown | Direct | ||
| Heat, Central Phoenix | 2019-09-14 | Unknown | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 931263, 931264.