Damaging Winds in Ohio, September 13, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front will move across the region
overnight.  High pressure will briefly build over the Ohio Valley on
Saturday.  Another weaker cold front will move through the forecast
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A strong cold front will move across the forecast area
this evening.  Storms were developing this afternoon ahead of the
front in eastern Indiana.  The short term models show the
thunderstorm development increasing through the late afternoon with
a line of thunderstorms forming and moving across the area this
evening. SPC has much of the northern sections of Ohio in a
Slight Risk Outlook category for tonight. Temperatures have once
again exceeded expectations reaching around 90 in many
locations. Dew points have crawled into the lower 70s. The
atmosphere is prime for a downburst wind event this evening. A
threat of isolated tornadoes remains but wind will be the
primary threat. The short term models show the greatest threat
of severe weather in northwest Ohio. The short term models
decrease the intensity of the storms over the eastern section of
the forecast area later this evening. Storms will push east of
after midnight. High pressure will build over the region on
Saturday. Non-thunderstorm wind is also a concern for NW PA. A
south to southeast downslope wind is likely this evening. Model
soundings indicate 40-50knots within a 1kft of the surface 00Z-
06Z time frame. I will continue the wind advisory for NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures warm on Sunday as southerly flow develops with a wave
of low pressure sliding east across the Central Great Lakes. The
airmass will be dry through the daytime hours with some passing mid-
level cloud cover. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will extend
south towards Lake Erie Sunday night with a few showers brushing
northeast Ohio into Monday morning as a cold front settles south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large area of high pressure will set up across Quebec and the
eastern Great Lakes through much of next week. Temperatures will
drop back on Tuesday into the mid 70s across NW Pennsylvania closest
to the cold pocket of air over New York. Inland areas will remain a
little warmer with temperatures holding closer to 80. Temperatures
will trend warmer a couple degrees each day with warm advection
increasing on Thursday as southerly flow kicks in and the ridge
builds aloft. Above normal temperatures expected through the
extended.&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A cold front will move across the forecast area this evening.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with this
frontal passage. Cumulus 4-5kt starting to develop in advance of
this front should remain scattered. MVFR ceilings and vsbys are
expected with showers and thunderstorms as the front moves
through the region. Timing of the storms will likely be 20Z-00Z
for western TAF locations and after 00Z for eastern TAF
locations. A gusty south wind will continue this afternoon with
higher gusts in the eastern TAF locations (ERI and YNG). Winds
will shift to a southwest flow after the frontal passage.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers Sunday afternoon into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds of 10-20 knots expected on Lake Erie this evening ahead
of a cold front that will sweep east. The exception to this is east
of Conneaut where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect with southerly
winds forecast to increase into the 20-30 knot range. A broken line
of thunderstorms will accompany the front and some may be strong
with severe winds to 50 knots or large hail. Winds shift around to
the west behind the front at 15-20 knots and will maintain choppy
conditions on the east end of the lake through Saturday.

High pressure builds in across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with
winds decreasing and backing to southwest towards evening. A weak
area of low pressure will slide east across the central Great Lakes
Sunday night, pulling a weak cold front south across Lake Erie on
Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ148-149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Garnet
NEAR TERM...Garnet
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Garnet
MARINE...KEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
303 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

LEZ142>144-162>164-OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028-141915-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Wyandot-Crawford-
303 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LEZ061-145>149-165>169-OHZ010>014-020>023-029>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ003-141915-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lorain-Cuyahoga-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Richland-
Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Crawford-
303 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, mainly across northern Ohio. Damaging winds are the primary
threat, with an isolated tornado threat possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PAZ001-002-141915-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
303 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
408 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

OHZ003-132100-
Lucas-
408 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LUCAS COUNTY...

At 408 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Swanton, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Toledo, Swanton, Oregon, Sylvania, Waterville, Northwood, Whitehouse,
Holland, Maumee, Ottawa Hills, Berkey and Neapolis.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northwestern Ohio.

LAT...LON 4171 8388 4172 8385 4173 8356 4162 8346
      4161 8347 4162 8357 4157 8362 4155 8368
      4152 8371 4145 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 236DEG 30KT 4155 8394

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