A pre-frontal squall line of storms produced strong wind gusts over a very moist, moderately unstable atmosphere.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A pre-frontal squall line of storms produced strong wind gusts over a very moist, moderately unstable atmosphere.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 22, 12:45 PM EST, 0 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 145 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Wednesday] Storms, showers, and strong winds will continue to move across the forecast area from out of the SE this afternoon. Convection expected to finish passing through Jacksonville-adjacent airfields by 21Z, with reduced wind speeds and clearing skies overnight as high pressure settles in over the forecast area, making for VFR conditions through Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION [907 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Warm front has moved north of the area into central Georgia early this morning. Showers to the west ahead of a cold front will move into westerly zones early this morning. Showers and thunderstorms will increase early this afternoon as the cold front approaches from the west. The airmass will destabilize with forecast CAPEs reaching the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Moderate vertical wind shear from the I-10 corridor northward across se Ga may result in isolated strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon. A few storms may produce strong wind gusts. The front will push se of the area early this evening ending the shower activity and bringing cooler and less humid air to the region. Temperatures ahead of the cold front will be above normal today with highs mostly reaching the mid/upper 80s. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s over interior se Ga to the lower 60s over se zones of ne Fl. .SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday night]... With the front south of the area Wed and sfc high pressure dominating just north of the area and northerly flow, dry and cool conditions are expected. Highs Wed expected to be mostly in the 70s. Wed night, sfc high pressure will quickly move northeastward causing low level flow trajectories to become easterly overnight, bringing an uptick in low level moisture/stratocumulus clouds. With weak isentropic lift and convergence, isolated light showers will be possible around Flagler county and the srn marine waters. Chilly overnight lows for inland southeast GA around 50, but increased clouds and dew-points further to the south will result in lows more in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Thursday...sfc high pressure continues to push off to the northeast of the area into the wrn Atlantic resulting in due easterly flow through about 1-2 kft. Isentropic ascent above a relatively cool boundary layer will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies during the day. Deeper moisture and better lift will produce chance of showers/areas of rain for the srn counties, with slight rain chances to just south of the I-10 corridor. Max temps will probably be held to the 70s over southeast GA, with upper 70s and around 80 across northeast FL. Thursday night...we see continued return flow aloft as a deep trough of low pressure digs into the srn U.S., while the sfc ridge that extended into SC and GA lifts northeast. Strong low level convergence will develop over the western Gulf coast associated with a strong cold front. Our area will more or less remain in the modified cool airmass north of a diffuse warm front located roughly over north central FL. Thus, we can continue to expect some overrunning clouds, some low chances for rain/showers, and an outside chance of a thunderstorm over the marine zones. Will raise min temps a bit from previous fcst with lows in the 60s to around 70. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]... Warm front may try to lift north across the area as the aforementioned cold front moves eastward. Chances of showers and possible isolated t-storms are forecast as the warm front lifts north. Fri night, cold front is forecast to approach the area from the west, with warm sly flow ahead of the boundary and will likely bump up min temps further. Will continue chance showers and isolated t-storms. For the rest of the long term, model solutions continue to be varied with the GFS pushing the front into the forecast area then stalling it while the ECMWF model shows widely different upper air pattern and results in the front staying well west of the area through late Sunday. The preference may be for the ECMWF solution at this time but must stress the low confidence given the different solutions both from the ECMWF and the GFS ensemble. In any event, will maintain at least a low chance of rain during the period and keep a consensus blend of max/min temps, mainly at or above normal. .MARINE... Southwest winds at 10-15 knots in the warm sector today with seas 2-4 ft and main weather impacts will be potential for strong to severe storms pushing into the coastal waters this afternoon and early evening with the cold frontal passage. Winds behind the front expected to be at least N-NW 15-20 knots with seas 3-6 ft and expecting SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) headlines but will be monitoring next model suite for possible increase to Small Craft Advisory flags for the offshore waters. .FIRE WEATHER... Min Rh values expected to drop to the upper 20s to lower 30s for inland areas Wed aftn but red flag warning criteria will not be met. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 49 72 51 75 63 / 0 0 0 10 20 SSI 58 72 63 77 71 / 0 0 0 10 20 JAX 56 75 62 80 70 / 10 0 0 20 20 SGJ 62 75 67 79 73 / 20 0 10 20 30 GNV 57 76 61 82 69 / 10 0 10 20 10 OCF 59 78 63 84 70 / 10 0 10 30 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
100 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019
FLZ020-021-035-122-222-GAZ162-163-221745-
Southern Columbia FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-Northern Columbia FL-
Gilchrist FL-Clinch GA-Echols GA-
100 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GILCHRIST...WESTERN
COLUMBIA...SUWANNEE...HAMILTON...SOUTHEASTERN ECHOLS AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLINCH COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...
* At 100 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
Suwannee River State Park to 10 miles northeast of Steinhatchee.
Movement was east at 35 mph.
* Winds in excess of 40 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
storms.
* Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Live Oak, Jasper, White Springs, Fargo, Ichetucknee
Spring, Suwannee River State Park, Suwannee Springs, Columbia and
Fort White.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3035 8321 3039 8317 3042 8320 3045 8320
3072 8255 2983 8266 2977 8294 2980 8292
2981 8293 2983 8289 2988 8287 2990 8290
2989 8292 2996 8293 2996 8295 2999 8296
3008 8307 3011 8312 3009 8319 3012 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 249DEG 32KT 3039 8320 2978 8327
HESSThe Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:42 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down onto a power line. The time of damage was based on radar. Cost of damage estimated for inclusion in Storm Data.
A power line was blown down on Vickie Powers road. The cost of damage was estimated for inclusion of the event in Storm Data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, October 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 857396, 857397.