Strong Wind in Florida, November 5, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
543 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019

.Aviation (12z TAF)...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period with a
few sprinkles possible at the East Coast sites. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible for KAPF and across the
interior this afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 310 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019/

Short Term (Today and Tonight)...
The stationary front that has been parked across the Lake region
over the last few days will push northward as a warm front today,
allowing surface high pressure to push further into the area. This
combined with some high cloud cover limiting some of the heating today
should keep most of the activity to showers, although a
thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out in areas of better heating.
Although the cloud cover may limit heating *some*, well-above
average temperatures are still forecast this afternoon with highs
ranging from the mid 80s along the East Coast to near 90 across
Southwest Florida. Naples probably has the best shot at a record
high today, but any of the sites could have a run at a record if
there's enough clearing during the early afternoon.

Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will break down
middle of this week allowing for a cold front to move southward
into South Florida late this week. This will allow for the some
drier air to work into the region from the north late this week
into next weekend. However, the steering flow will be more from
the northeast direction late this week into this weekend allowing
for some fast moving showers to affect the east coast metro areas
and the adjacent coastal waters.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, except
mid to upper 80s east coast metro areas ahead of the front with lows
in the 70s, except around 70 near Lake Okeechobee. The highs will
then cool down a little bit behind the front to more near normal
conditions for this time of year in the lower to mid 80s. The lows
will also cool down to 60s, except around 70 over the east coast
metro areas due to onshore wind flow.

Another cold front is forecast by the long range models to move
through South Florida early next week bringing in more cooler
weather to the area. Will continue to monitor this cold front
throughout the week into the weekend to see how cooler it could be
behind the second cold front for early next week.

Marine...
Fairly persistent E to SE winds could bring brief periods of SCEC
conditions to the Atlantic over the next few days. Marine
conditions should deteriorate heading into the weekend as a cold
front pushes through the region with breezy northerly to
northeasterly winds and building seas in its wake.

Beach Forecast...
A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for the northern
portions of Palm Beach County today due to lingering NE swell.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  86  76  86  76 /  30  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  86  78  86  77 /  20  20  20  20
Miami            86  76  87  77 /  20  10  20  10
Naples           88  73  89  73 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Marine...32/MM
Aviation...32/MM
Beach Forecast...32/MM

Short Term...32/MM
Long Term...54/BNB

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
313 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
052015-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
313 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2019

...High Risk of Rip Currents for Northern Palm Beach County...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for northern Palm
Beach County and a moderate risk of rip currents for the remainder
of the east coast beaches.

Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida
today. The primary hazards with any stronger storms that develop are
lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Deteriorating marine and beach conditions are expected heading into
the weekend as a cold front pushes through the area.

There will be a slight chance for thunderstorms over portions of
South Florida through the week. The main concern will be lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated. However, spotters should still
report any significant weather to the National Weather Service Miami
office.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.