Heavy Rain in Florida, August 2, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1000 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN A FEW
LOCATIONS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
Several sfc boundaries in the local area today, one over the
northern zones that helped trigger numerous showers and a few storms
early this morning over coastal GA. Additional weak troughs were
along the coast and also over from central FL northeastward into the
FL waters. Numerous showers and a few storms continues over the
marine zones...pushing northward in deep layer flow from the south
at about 5-10 kt. The JAX 12z sounding today is more typical of a
tropical airmass with PWAT of 2.2 inches and lapse rates that are
more moist adiabatic. The 500 mb temp has also warmed quite a bit
compared to the last couple of days and was measured at -5.4C. The
CAP from the sounding is weak and should enable fairly rapid
development of showers and storms today and have not made much
change to the high rain chances today with likely chances around 60
percent over inland southeast GA to 70-90 percent over northeast FL
and coast GA. Given deep layer winds are nearly parallel to sea
breeze boundaries and high PWAT air and 250 mb south winds of near
30-50 kt providing good divergence aloft, locally heavy rainfall
rates/amounts (3 inches) are anticipated with minor flooding
possible in some locations along coastal counties and isolated parts
of inland northeast FL. Highs today only in the 80s to near 90 given
the increased clouds and precip. Rainfall chances diminish tonight
but coastal areas could see chances of precip staying elevated
through sunrise on Saturday as ern zones are where deepest moisture
and low level forcing will remain in play.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly cloudy skies with multiple cloud layers today with MVFR cigs
at times even outside of convection. Numerous to occasionally
widespread showers and storms are expected through the day with
conditions down to IFR in the stronger cells. Rain chances will
decrease in coverage across TAF sites during the evening, but MVFR
cigs may continue.

&&

.MARINE...Tropical wave will move across the waters next 24 hours
with numerous to widespread showers and t-storms through the period.
Winds will be easterly to southeasterly through Saturday. As wave
moves northeast of waters, with high pressure building south of
waters, winds will become more southwesterly across the waters
Sunday into early next week. Current forecast on track with little
change.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk today for dangerous rip currents
due to onshore flow and small easterly swells.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  72  88  72 /  60  30  60  30
SSI  82  75  86  75 /  90  70  60  30
JAX  84  74  89  74 /  90  50  60  30
SGJ  82  74  87  74 /  90  50  60  30
GNV  84  72  89  72 /  80  50  60  30
OCF  83  73  89  73 /  90  40  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Shashy/McGinnis