High Wind in California, March 19, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
256 PM PDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific storm system will move into and across the region
tonight through Thursday. Brief high pressure will build over the
area Friday before another weaker storm system moves across the
region Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The next storm is at the door step of California as the initial
higher cloud cover invaded the region. While the storm’s
surface frontal band and associated precipitation were still well
off-shore this afternoon, current timing has the onset of
precipitation overspreading the region later this evening. In the
meanwhile, satellite based precipitation hourly rates were
estimated at widespread a tenth of an inch with isolated quarter
of an inch. Vandenberg Doppler radar is starting to pick up on the
leading edge where hourly rain rates were still below a tenth of
an inch. Therefore, support is high that precipitation will
overspread Central California overnight for a possible wetting
rain and additional snow for the higher terrain above 7000 feet.
In addition, enough sunshine penetrated the cloud cover to warm
the region as temperatures reached well into the 70s this
afternoon. Furthermore, the cold air advancing on Central
California will interact with the warm surface to generate strong
gusty winds tonight. Will maintain the wind advisory to windy
condition tonight. Additionally, the unsettled conditions in the
next 24 hour may also produce afternoon Thunderstorms for Central
California.

Models continue to show high confidence in the passage of the
negatively tilted trough during the overnight and Wednesday time
frame. While having the potential of drawing in significant
moisture, the tilted trough will pick up what it can before making
landfall. Satellite precip-water imagery is showing a plume of
three-quarter to almost one inch values extending toward
California. Hopefully, the frontal band will tap into the moisture
plume for a good wetting of the ground across Central California.
In addition to the precipitation, the negatively tilted trough
will help the increase instability across Central California on
Wednesday. Models show the best instability over Central
California during the Wednesday afternoon time-frame. While
thunder cannot be ruled out during the morning, Cape values reach
their max values during the late afternoon when deep moisture has
overtaken the district. Therefore, the best chances of Convective
activity will be confined to the afternoon hours.

Thursday may remain unsettled as the associated upper low from
Wednesday’s disturbance drops into the Desert Southwest. At
worst, lingering showers over the mountains will diminish by
Thursday night as weak ridge enters the region. Afterward, models
have some confidence in introducing yet another storm on Saturday
before drying occurs early next week. The district will not be out
of the woods as longer range models show another disturbance for
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Wind gusts exceeding 35KT possible near the Tehachapi Mountain
passes and along the west side of the San Joaquin Valley thru 07Z
Wed. Increasing areas of mountain obscuring IFR in the Southern
Sierra Nevada after 03Z Wed and in the Tehachapi Mountains after 09Z
Wed. Local MVFR conditions in low clouds and showers in the San
Joaquin Valley and southern Sierra foothills after 18Z Wed. Isolated
thunderstorms possible after 18Z Wed. Otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail elsewhere across the Central CA Interior the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ089-091-095.

&&

public...Molina
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...Molina

weather.gov/hanford