High Wind in California, January 8, 2019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
328 AM PST Tue Jan 8 2019

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather across the San Joaquin Valley today with strong,
gusty winds in the Grapevine area through about noon. A chance of
showers in the valley tonight and tomorrow, and snow showers in
the Sierra Nevada. Dry weather returns for Thursday and Friday,
and then a chance for precipitation starting on Saturday lasting
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently a Wind Advisory is out for the Grapevine area, as
southerly winds have been gusting as high as 70 mph this morning.
The Wind Advisory is valid through 20z today. Otherwise, we are
sitting under a relatively warm air mass as max temperatures
yesterday were several degrees above average across the CWA. Hi
temps today might be slightly lower with the incoming storm system
providing height falls and cloudy skies. This storm system will
produce low-intensity precipitation starting tonight, going
through early Thursday morning. The northern portion of the CWA in
the San Joaquin Valley could see storm totals near 1/4" to 1/2" of
rain for the event, while the valley portion of Kern County may see
less than 1/10" of rain. Snow levels are forecast to be around 7,000
feet -- areas that see snow can expect 2-4" of new snow, with local
areas seeing up to 6-8" of new snow.

Starting Thursday morning, model progs are showing the development
of shortwave ridging, which could indicate a chance for morning
fog for areas that clear out, but confidence is low this far out.
This brief ridge will provide us a break from the precipitation
across the district for Thursday and Friday, and will provide us
with above average daytime highs (especially on Friday) in the
low 60's. Friday night and Saturday, another storm system will
bring chances of precipitation. As it moves onshore the focus for
the best chance of precip is currently more towards the southern
portion of the CWA, however the confidence of exact location of
the precipitation for this event remains low. By Sunday, another
system will swing down from the Gulf of Alaska and could provide
us with another chance for precipitation through Monday, but as of
this writing, there is significant disagreement on the timing and
location between the slower/southerly ECMWF and the
faster/northerly GEFS.

After Monday, coarser-resolution models are indicating the
unsettled weather pattern will continue at least through the mid
week. CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation guidance is still
indicating an above average chance of precipitation compared to
climatology for this time frame, so odds are probably in the favor
of us receiving additional precipitation for at least next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty winds up to 30 kts at KBFL through 16z. MVFR conditions after
06z Wednesday due to light rain. Mountain obscuration possible in
the light rain also after 06z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until noon PST today CAZ095.

&&

public...Bollenbacher
avn/fw...Dudley
synopsis...Bollenbacher

weather.gov/hanford