75 inches of rain over parts of the Museum Fire scar which produced flash flooding. The flow of water, ash, and mud went about three miles down the Spruce Wash drainage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A thunderstorm produced an estimated 0.75 inches of rain over parts of the Museum Fire scar which produced flash flooding. The flow of water, ash, and mud went about three miles down the Spruce Wash drainage. It did not make it to Linda Vista Drive.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 3:33 PM MST, 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 333 PM MST Tue Jul 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will continue to bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to northern Arizona. The most widespread coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be on Wednesday and Thursday. There will be a slight downturn in the chances for precipitation from Friday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... REMAINDER OF TODAY...Thunderstorms and showers that began to form today around noon are now beginning to move off of the higher terrain. The area of strongest convection is currently along the Mogollon Rim, but will continue to move towards the west and northwest with the mean flow. Chances of thunderstorms have been retained in the forecast through the overnight hours for most of northern Arizona as gust fronts and evening convection will continue to initiate new thunderstorms yet today. WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...Precipitable water values of around or slightly higher than an inch will persist into Wednesday. These will likely be the highest precipitable water values of the week within our east to southeasterly wind pattern. The center of the high pressure currently located near the Four Corners will begin to drift towards southern California on Thursday. Remaining moisture from the southeasterly flow will continue to bring chances of precipitation across much of the County Warning Area. FRIDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK...The drifting ridge axis will produce a changing wind pattern for northern Arizona in this period. Winds will shift from south / southeasterly to become more westerly and result in a slight decrease in available moisture. The slight decrease in moisture will be help to limit chances of precipitation in western and northern portions of the County Warning Area. The current forecast represented this decrease in precipitation well. Longer range guidance continues to suggest the ridge axis will be centered over southern Nevada and California throughout the weekend. The ridge axis will begin to shift eastward again on Monday and result in an another uptick in moisture for northern Arizona in the early part of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Showers and thunderstorms across northern Arizona will begin to decrease after 03Z. Wind gusts in excess of 30 kts in the vicinity of storms are possible. Winds around 10 kts away from storms will decrease to become light and variable overnight. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase again after 18Z Wed. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Deep monsoonal moisture will persist across northern Arizona on Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorms could produce strong outflow winds, wetting rains, and flash flooding over sensitive areas/fire scars. Thursday through Saturday...This will be a continued active weather pattern with the best chances for precipitation near the White Mountains. Daytime temperatures will be near average for the end of July. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...NL AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER...NL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:30 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Black water (ash) and debris flowed over North Primrose Circle and down Spruce Wash to between East Park Way and East Linda Vista Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 838608.