A cold front overtook a preceding outflow boundary and pre-frontal surface trough that was in place across central NC. Convection along the southward moving cold front organized into a QLCS as it intercepted the axis of strong diabatic heating and instability south of the front.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A cold front overtook a preceding outflow boundary and pre-frontal surface trough that was in place across central NC. Convection along the southward moving cold front organized into a QLCS as it intercepted the axis of strong diabatic heating and instability south of the front. Along with swaths of wind damage, two weak, short-lived tornadoes developed along the line.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 23, 5:45 AM EST, 5 hours 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east across North Carolina today, stalling near the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. In the front's wake, high pressure will bring cooler and less humid air through the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM Tuesday... A few minor tweaks to match up with in-situ observations this morning. Majority of the overnight convection continues to migrate north, leaving a few outflow boundaries of interest, including a primary one draped NW to SE from roughly Roanoke Rapids, through Raleigh, ending near Wadesboro. CAMs continue to hint at this boundary as being the primary focus for pre-frontal convection late this morning/mid afternoon ahead of the primary forcing. Previously valid discussion... An unseasonably dynamic positively tilted upper trough, clearly visible with mid and upper-level WV imagery, continues to progress southeastward across the corn belt states and Ohio River valley. At the surface, an associated cold front is situated SW to NE across the spine of the central Appalachian Mountains, with a series of weakening outflow pre-frontal bands of convection protruding into the foothills and western Piedmont of the middle Atlantic states. Locally, convection continues, especially along and west of the I-85 and north of US-64. While the convection remains below severe limits, it is dropping anywhere from a quarter to a half-inch of precipitation, which could help "prime" portions of the NW Piedmont which will also likely see the first development of additional rounds of precipitation as the front progresses east of the Blue Ridge later on this morning. The ongoing convection is progged to retreat northward with time pre- dawn Tuesday, allowing for a brief reprieve from the higher rainfall rates across the Triad region as rush-hour begins. This reprieve won't last long, however, as the primary FROPA is expected to slide east of the Appalachians between 12z - 18z, marching southeast across the state before exiting off the Carolina Coast by 12z/8am Wednesday. This boundary, along with its associated pre-frontal trough and residual outflow boundaries from overnight convection will provide epicenter for widespread thunderstorm development across the CWA on Tuesday. Best coverage of showers and storms will occur across the Triad region between 12z - 18z, the Triangle between 18z - 22z, and the I-95 Corridor between 20z Tuesday - 02z Wednesday. An at least isolated flooding risk persists across the entire forecast area, while a severe thunderstorm risk exists primarily along and east of US-1 (Both of which are outlined in more detail below). A pretty drastic temperature gradient is likely this afternoon, with temperatures remaining steady across the Triad region all day (mid 70s) thanks to abundant cloud cover and nearby showers, with some heating likely being allowed across the Coastal Plain (topping out near 90 degrees). Overnight lows will dip into the lower 60s (northwest) to near 70 (southeast). Severe threat: With plenty of nearby upper-level support, the possibility of at least isolated severe thunderstorms will exist on Tuesday, especially along and east of US-1. In this area, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (2 of 5) of Severe Thunderstorms. The biggest forecasting question and possible limiting factor remains the availability of instability, with a rather robust mid to upper-level cloud layer continuing to spread eastward with time on Tuesday morning, limiting daytime heating processes. Even so, at least modest mixed layer instability (1500 - 2000 J/KG) should be prevalent, especially across the eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain counties. Also, some indications of increasing effective bulk shear values (30 to 35kts parallel to the surface boundary) is evident, especially in the mid to late afternoon hours as the upper-level support strengthens and the LLJ kicks in. This could work to enhance the damaging wind gust potential Tuesday evening, especially south and east of the Triangle Region, say roughly Fayetteville to Rocky Mount. Another source of uncertainty will be the impacts from any pre-frontal convection that develops out ahead of the primary line, which could work to stabilize the atmosphere ahead to the primary FROPA, and/or drop additional outflow boundaries that could locally enhance helicity during storm interaction, resulting in a very low-end tornado threat during the peak intensity of the event. Flooding threat: A very moist airmass, characterized by PW values between 1.75 to 2.25 inches, will remain in place out ahead of the FROPA. This will lead to additional area-average rainfall accumulations ranging from 1.25 to 2.0 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WPC has outlined our entire area in at least a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of Excessive Rainfall, with those along and east of US-1 in a Slight Risk (2 of 5), quoting primarily high rainfall rates of 2" or greater in the strongest storms. Luckily, antecedent conditions across most of the region (with the possible exception of the NW Piedmont) remains relatively dry, likely limiting the flooding threat primarily to urban centers, or localized areas that see repetitive rounds of thunderstorms. Thus, have chosen to hold off on any Flash Flood Watch products at this time. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... The unseasonably strong upper trough over the Eastern US will bring a welcome break from the persistent heat and high humidity that has dominated in recent weeks. The upper trough will pick up TD#3 late tonight and Wednesday keep it east and offshore. At the surface, a ~1022 mb cell of high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will strengthen as it builds east into the region. The resultant northerly low-level flow will support below normal temps to close for mid the late week period. Highs in the lower to mid 80s along with ultra comfortable dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. Lows in the 60s with some upper 50s in the typically cooler locations across the NC Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 645 AM Tuesday... Eastern US trough will weaken through the weekend with subtropical ridging attempting to build west across the Deep South. Within the lingering weakness over the SE US, the GFS is most excited in lifting a couple of upper level disturbances north along the SE US Coast, which could bring a chance of some light precip chances to the far SE zones. But for now, will leave the forecast dry. Central NC looks to remain under the influence of weak sfc high so expect gradual dry conditions with gradual moderation to seasonable temps and humidity levels. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 AM Tuesday... Pre-dominantly VFR conditions remain in place across the central NC terminals this morning, with the exception of some intermittent MVFR CIGs. In general, a brief period of improving conditions this morning will be quickly overtaken by increasing Thunderstorm development by mid afternoon continuing into the overnight hours. Timing for best coverage remains 12z/8am - 18z/2pm at KINT/KGSO, 16z/12pm - 22z/6pm at KRDU, and 20z/4pm - 00z/8pm at KFAY/KRWI. With said showers and storms expect wind gusts, bouncing CIGs, and briefly lowering VSBYs potentially into the IFR/LIFR range. The front will have pretty good pace to it, clearing east of the terminals by dusk tonight. Some MVFR/IFR Fog/Stratus possible tonight, but should be increasingly more intermittent in time with a CAA regime becoming dominant. Outlook: High pressure will build across the middle Atlantic states and provide for mainly dry, VFR conditions through the rest of the week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...JJM SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...JJM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 440 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-240845- Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe- Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett- Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 440 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop and strengthen while moving southeastward across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms will be possible, primarily across the central Piedmont and Coastal Plain, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall which could lead to Flooding. Secondary severe risks consist of small hail and an isolated tornado in the strongest of storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. NCZ007-021>023-038-039-240845- Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph- 440 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Pockets of heavy shower and Thunderstorms will continue off and on through the mid afternoon hours. A few storms could become strong, capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall which could lead to urban and small stream flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1126 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0920 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S WARRENTON 36.39N 78.16W
07/22/2019 WARREN NC 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ON A VEHICLE ON S MAIN ST IN
WARRENTON.
&&
JFDSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1135 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019
NCZ008-025-040-041-076-231630-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
1135 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019
...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
GRANVILLE...NORTHERN LEE...WESTERN WAKE...EASTERN CHATHAM AND
SOUTHERN DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...
At 1132 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of showers and
thunderstorms along a line extending from Durham to near Sanford,
moving northeast at 40 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Sanford, Creedmoor, Wake Forest, Rdu
International, Apex, Holly Springs and Morrisville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and will
lead to hazardous travel conditions and localized flooding,
particularly in urban areas around the Triangle.
Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.
&&
LAT...LON 3616 7856 3596 7853 3563 7877 3558 7891
3555 7895 3540 7929 3585 7904 3587 7901
3607 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1532Z 228DEG 33KT 3599 7892 3553 7919
22PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1156 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0920 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S WARRENTON 36.39N 78.16W
07/22/2019 WARREN NC 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ON A VEHICLE ON S MAIN ST IN
WARRENTON.
0842 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E CREEDMOOR 36.13N 78.60W
07/22/2019 GRANVILLE NC 911 CALL CENTER
POWERLINES DOWN IN ROADWAY.
0840 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE CREEDMOOR 36.14N 78.61W
07/22/2019 GRANVILLE NC 911 CALL CENTER
POWERLINES DOWN OVER ROADWAY NC HWY 56.
0740 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W TUNGSTEN 36.52N 78.53W
07/22/2019 GRANVILLE NC 911 CALL CENTER
POWER LINES WERE REPORTED DOWN AT 9211 US
HIGHWAY 15 NORTH, NORTH OF BULLOCK.
0705 PM TSTM WND DMG PFAFFTOWN 36.15N 80.31W
07/22/2019 FORSYTH NC UTILITY COMPANY
TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON POWER LINES
ALONG REYNOLDA ROAD NEAR VALLEY ROAD.
0700 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W SURL 36.31N 78.97W
07/22/2019 PERSON NC 911 CALL CENTER
MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES WERE REPORTED
DOWN IN THE TIMBERLAKE AREA.
0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE CARR 36.15N 79.19W
07/22/2019 ORANGE NC TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED TREE DOWN IN YARD.
0627 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE DOBBINS HEIGHTS 34.89N 79.60W
07/22/2019 RICHMOND NC EMERGENCY MNGR
FEW TREES DOWN IN THE AREA.
0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE RANDLEMAN 35.80N 79.78W
07/22/2019 RANDOLPH NC 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN IN RANDLEMAN, NC.
0533 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N COATS CROSSROADS 35.61N 78.57W
07/22/2019 JOHNSTON NC 911 CALL CENTER
LARGE TREE LIMB FELL INTO POWERLINES, AND
CAUSED DAMAGE TO POWER POLE.
&&The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 139 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:08 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 2 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees blown down along a wind swath, including downed trees near the intersection of Boones Cave and Old Pasture Roads; NC Highway 8 and Jersey Church Road; and Hogan Bowers Road.
A few trees blown down along a wind swath, including downed trees near the intersection of Lawndale Drive and Wingate Street; and Burnetts Chapel Road and Drake Road.
One tree down at Main Street Extension and Vista Health Park Road.
Several trees blown down along a wind swath, including downed trees on South Carbonton Road, near the intersection of Highway 211 and Love Grove Church Road, and the intersection of Summer Hill Church Road and Murdocksville Road.
Several trees blown down along a wind swath, including downed trees on Badders Road, U.S. Highway 1, and Lower Moncure Road.
Downed tree on power-lines at Highway 55 near W. Holly Springs Road.
A brief tornado touched down in the community of Willow Springs. The damage consisted of a combination of snapped and uprooted trees, minor siding damage to one home, and numerous fences blown down. Damage indicators suggested wind speeds of 75 to 85 mph.
A brief tornado touched down in the Cleveland area, near the intersection of Cornwallis Road and Justin Drive and lifted near the intersection of Goldfield Drive and Justin Drive. Damage observed included minor shingle on several homes, numerous softwood trees snapped, and lawn furniture tossed a substantial distance. Damage indicators were consistent consistent with maximum wind speeds of 85 to 90 mph.
Several trees blown down along a wind swath, including downed trees near the intersection of Saint Marys Church Road and Mobley Road; and Church Street in Saratoga.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2019Every state in 2019This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for North Carolina, 2019Warnings in North Carolina, July 2019
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 846353, 846355, 846356, 846358, 846359, 846360, 846373, 846376, 846361.