NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 9:58 AM EST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 25, 9:58 AM EST, 3 hours 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1058 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return again today with
warm and humid conditions preceding an upper level disturbance. A
weak cold front will drop through the forecast area tonight,
bringing more seasonable temperatures Tuesday. A passing trough
will increase chances for showers and storms Wednesday, with hot
weather returning to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11am EDT Monday: Temperatures running nearly exactly as
observations, so will not adjust them for this update. Adjusted
POPs to account for indications from latest high-res model guidance.
Current quiet conditions expected to give way to thunderstorms early
this afternoon with good coverage to all areas. latest CAMs have
MCS over KY/TN continuing eastward and affecting western parts of
the CWA by 17Z, with widespread coverage through 3Z, after which
activity may decline for awhile. Some of the models suggest 2 waves
of thunder. The first is more diurnally driven after 17Z, followed
by a second round as remnants of MCS reach the area after 21Z. The
practical effect is that these 2 rounds will merge to some extent,
and an extended period of thunderstorms is anticipated. Main threat
will be severe wind gusts, per the SPC day1 SLIGHT risk outlook.
Otherwise...an ill-defined backdoor cold front stretches across
the eastern US, sitting just north of the area attm. A midlevel
shortwave trough is analyzed near the confluence of the Mississippi
and Ohio rivers. The front will sag south today, bringing
northeasterly winds and some relief in the heat and humidity to the
northern NC Foothills/Piedmont. That said, all areas still look to
destabilize today, with peak SBCAPE values likely exceeding 1000
J/kg throughout the FA (and over 2000 J south of the boundary). The
front itself may provide a source of convective initiation, but
that shortwave is timed to move east of the mountains during the
late afternoon and early evening. Meso models generally depict
some flavor of organized convection entering the area with it,
but even if that proves to be wrong, a new round of storms is
expected to form in situ. These could easily organize into a new
MCS given 0-6km shear up to 40 kt, enhanced by winds having turned
NE on the cool side of the front. This could result in a swath of
wind damage. DCAPE is likely to exceed 1000 J/kg on the warm side
(southern half of the area), so any discrete cells that form will
be especially capable of severe downbursts there. Max temps will
be a category or so above climo from the I-85 corridor south,
with near-normal temps to the north. Heat index will peak around
100 in the warmest spots of the lower Piedmont.
Precip chances persist tonight, with some convection possibly
continuing near the backdoor front, which should continue to
push south. Stratiform precip may also develop with the front,
though this looks less likely than usual because of the depth of
the northerly flow, i.e., the warm upglide is missing. Mins will
be a few degrees above climo.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday: We have a brief but significant pattern
change in place for Tuesday in the wake of today's convection, with
surface high over New England and the Mid Atlantic ridging down the
Eastern Seaboard at least briefly under confluent flow aloft. Upper
ridge stretching from the Deep South to the Great Lakes is bracketed
by lows over the Upper Midwest and the Canadian Maritimes, and the
surface front working south across the area tonight will allow for a
brief wedge of cooler air to settle across the area on Tuesday. The
surface high will transition quickly offshore with just a residual
cool pool up against the Appalachians late Tuesday, as the Midwest
upper low forces the upper ridge of the East Coast. But for the day
on Tuesday, with the (brief) damming, cloud cover, and low-level
northeasterly flow, temperatures will be held below seasonal normals
especially across the NW NC Piedmont, but even into portions of the
Upstate. The front should settle across the Upstate such that the
Upper Savannah Valley should still see those warmer temps closer to
normal. Showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected across
the damming area, with more "typical" summertime convection possible
across the Upper Savannah. Surface instability will be extremely
limited across the NC Piedmont and most of the Upstate just due to
the capping inversion atop the cool dome, and SPC Day2 outlook of
General Thunder works, though could certainly argue that the Upper
Savannah areas, with better surface buoyancy, could see at least an
isolated severe storm or two.
The cooler afternoon highs are short-lived and limited to only
Tuesday as the Midwest upper low crosses into the Great Lakes into
midweek. The associated surface front will be lagging back into the
Ohio Valley, but with the Southeast back in the warm sector and with
the support and lift from the upper trough passing overhead,
convection should increase again on Wednesday to above diurnal
levels. Could argue for categorical pops across the mountains but
for now have capped them at likely, with high chances elsewhere. The
upper trough will push toward the coast Wednesday night and the
attendant front will, as is often the case, sort of skip over the
mountains and set up again over the Piedmont, hanging up as our
typical summertime Piedmont trough as we push into the extended.
Highs on Wednesday will be pretty close to normal values as low-
level WAA picks up again with southwesterly low-level flow. Will be
interesting to see what happens with the remnant energy from today's
MCS, as the ECMWF progs this to re-intensify over the ocean, though
it should lift out and not be of any concern to us.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Monday: As we push into the extended, the upper
trough will move off the East Coast and upper ridging will build in
again across the Southern Plains and Mid-South, then traverse east
toward the MS Valley for Friday, with the ridge axis setting up over
the Appalachians for the Saturday and the East Coast Sunday. As one
might surmise, increasing thicknesses will result in increasing
heat, with a rinse-and-repeat trend through the period. Convection
will be more of a typical diurnal pattern, favoring the mountains
with the addition of orographic lift to the increasing convective
instability. Some concern remains with how much dewpoint mixing we
might see in the afternoons, and current grids do have some areas
reaching the 105 degree heat index threshold in the afternoons,
mainly in the Upper Savannah Valley.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds will turn northerly over western NC as
a backdoor cold front settles south, but this boundary will stall
and is not expected to flip winds in the Upstate until tonight. At
peak mixing it is possible some of the NC sites could experience
brief S winds, also. Low VFR cumulus should break out by late
morning as instability develops. A shortwave trough should move
into the area near peak heating, which should produce numerous
SHRA/TSRA over the region, especially over western NC. Conditions
will be favorable for storms to produce downbursts, and upscale
organization into a squall line is possible. If a squall line forms,
a swath of wind damage may accompany it. Based on meso model output,
KHKY/KCLT are at particular risk for such in the early evening
hours. Expect worsening flight conditions tonight as the boundary
settles further south and a moist N to NE low-level flow produces
widespread low stratus over the area. Fog may develop wherever
heavy rain falls this afternoon and evening, as well. Improvement
should occur by mid-morning Tue.
Outlook: Through midweek, a slow-moving or stalled front will
enhance coverage of SHRA/TSRA, mostly in the afternoon/evening.
Patchy morning fog and/or low stratus may increase as well in
mountain valleys and/or locations with wet ground.
Confidence Table...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 86% Med 74%
KGSP High 100% High 100% Med 71% Med 75%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 95% High 88%
KHKY High 100% High 100% Med 60% High 80%
KGMU High 100% High 100% Med 71% Med 72%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% Med 69%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...Wimberley/WJM
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...WimberleySpecial weather statement, Jun 25, 1:17 PM EST, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
217 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
NCZ051-052-059-251845-
Haywood NC-Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-
217 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...
NORTHEASTERN SWAIN AND NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
EDT...
At 217 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Newport, or near Smoky Mountains-Big Creek, moving
east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Cherokee, Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky Mountains-Cataloochee,
Smoky Mountains-Big Creek, Smoky Mountains-Oconaluftee, Smoky
Mountains-Clingmans Dome, Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain, B.R.
Parkway-Smoky Mountains To Balsam Gap, Smoky Mountains-Deep Creek and
Waterville.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.
LAT...LON 3557 8349 3561 8345 3562 8340 3567 8334
3566 8330 3569 8326 3572 8325 3572 8320
3576 8316 3577 8311 3579 8308 3578 8299
3576 8295 3574 8295 3575 8292 3573 8291
3545 8330 3556 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 281DEG 16KT 3572 8316
Carroll