What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 1:42 PM EST, 51 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 25, 1:42 PM EST, 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms will impact the area again this afternoon
and evening with damaging winds possible. A weak cold front will
drop through the forecast area tonight, bringing more seasonable
temperatures Tuesday. A passing trough will increase chances for
showers and storms Wednesday, with hot weather returning to end the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Monday. Round of thunderstorms, some possibly severe,
is just beginning this afternoon across the CWA. SBCAPE is good
with afternoon heating, though MLCAPE is more moderate. Windshear
is moderate as well, and activity is being assisted by propagation
of upstream system. Per CAMs, thunder is anticipated to continue
through the evening, with activity becoming focused more to the east
after 7pm and ending after 10pm. Upper flow is weak and westerly,
but a shortwave has developed in association with MCS propagating
into the area. As system passes by this evening, surface trough
moves further off shore and surface ridge becomes established with
high pressure building-up east of the Appalachians in a warm-season
wedge set-up. Sagging frontal boundary becomes a wedge front
Tuesday morning, bringing somewhat cooler air with low overcast
across the region. Despite cooler and cloudy conditions on Tuesday
due to wedge, enough instability developes in the afternoon for some
thunderstorms, though with less coverage and intensity than ones
today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 pm Monday: Cyclonic mid/upper tropospheric flow will
quickly return to the forecast area early in the short term, before
the upper trough axis shifts to the East Coast late in the period.
Surface boundary will be sliding south and west across the area at
the start of the period, with short term model guidance depicting
strong low level convergence along the boundary, along with not-too-
shabby warm sector instability (and it is a June front, so
instability extends for at least a couple of hundred miles to the
"cool" side of the boundary). Meanwhile, with strong instability
still likely to develop Tue pm across the TN Valley, clusters of
convection will have plenty of opportunity to end up in our forecast
area through at least the first half or so of the period.
Slow-moving back door fronts this time of year are red flags for
potential flash flooding, as they provide ample opportunity for
training and/or anchored cells, and in fact the latest runs of the
GFS and NAM are signaling this potential in producing blobs of heavy
rainfall across the southern half of the area Tue evening.
Surface boundary will wash out and the air mass modify rather
quickly by mid-week, with strong instability likely developing
across the area Wed afternoon/evening, as the trough axis and
attendant front/surface trough are progressing across the TN Valley
and southern Appalachians. Another round of at least scattered
convection is therefore expected during this time, supporting 40-60
pops across the area. Increasing height gradient associated with
approaching trough will yield modest deep-layer shear, which should
be sufficient to allow some degree of convective organization posing
an enhanced threat of locally damaging winds. Increasing
anticyclonic flow aloft, along with lower theta-E area spilling into
the area should allow for a significant draw down in convective
activity Thu afternoon, although small chances for terrain-
influenced diurnal convection will still exist. Temps will be near
normal to begin the period, but return to several degrees above
climo by Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday: Mid level high pressure will be centered
over the eastern states for the extended period leading to continued
hot conditions with mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. The hottest day of this period looks to be Friday
when the mid level high is closest overhead. The combination of the
actual temperature and the humidity will lead to peak heat indices
near 105 in the Piedmont region. As the high moves off to the
northeast of the area Saturday through next Monday, it will be
slightly less hot with peak heat indices 100 to 105 outside the
mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Thunderstorms with outflows approaching
severe limits are expected all areas this afternoon through the
evening as a complex of storms currently across KY/TN/AL/GA
propagates southeastward. Weak front currently oriented northwest-
southeast across CLT may help provide additional focus at times, but
front is diffuse, and severe storms are possible all areas. Thunder
moves west to east across the area, exiting after 2 or 3Z. Gradual
southwest movement of front will continue to veer winds at KCLT,
though weakness of pressure gradient will keep winds light to
variable many locations. Main trough associated with front moves
east, allowing a cold-air-damming surface high to bring
northeasterly winds and low-overcast into the area by early Tuesday
morning at KCLT, and other locations later. Some light rain/drizzle
is expected behind the wedge front; and by Tuesday afternoon, models
develop some CAPE again, despite CAD conditions, giving some chance
for thunderstorms.
Outlook: Through midweek, a slow-moving or stalled front will
enhance coverage of SHRA/TSRA, mostly in the afternoon/evening.
Patchy morning fog and/or low stratus may increase as well in
mountain valleys and/or locations with wet ground.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% Med 63% High 85%
KGSP High 100% High 85% Med 63% High 80%
KAVL High 100% High 90% Med 63% High 85%
KHKY High 100% High 99% Low 56% Med 77%
KGMU High 100% High 100% Med 61% High 84%
KAND High 100% High 100% Med 69% High 92%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...WJMHazardous weather outlook, Jun 25, 12:09 PM EST, 2 hours 24 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-072-
501>510-261715-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Cabarrus-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and western North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, and
large hail will also be possible. Dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning and brief heavy rain can be expected as well.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070-071-082-SCZ001>014-019-261715-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
109 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, and
large hail will also be possible. Dangerous cloud-to-ground
lightning and brief heavy rain can be expected as well.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Excessive heat possible.
..Thursday...Excessive heat possible.
..Friday...Excessive heat possible.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 25, 1:45 PM EST, 48 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
245 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
NCZ048-049-051-052-251915-
Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Swain NC-Madison NC-
245 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON...NORTHEASTERN SWAIN...
NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD AND NORTHWESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...
At 245 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 13 miles north of Marshall to 5 miles southeast
of Gatlinburg, and moving east at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Hot Springs, Smoky Mountains-Big Creek, Smoky Mountains-Cataloochee,
Smoky Mountains-Newfound Gap, Ramseytown, Waterville, Max Patch,
Faust, Allenstand and Walnut.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.
LAT...LON 3603 8259 3597 8261 3595 8257 3603 8244
3602 8228 3566 8303 3565 8336 3567 8334
3566 8330 3572 8325 3573 8319 3576 8316
3579 8308 3578 8299 3588 8290 3593 8292
3595 8287 3593 8281 3600 8278 3605 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 267DEG 25KT 3599 8270 3568 8340
LANESpecial weather statement, Jun 25, 2:15 PM EST, 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
315 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
NCZ048>050-053-251945-
Buncombe NC-Yancey NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
315 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MADISON...NORTHWESTERN
MITCHELL...NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE AND NORTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL
345 PM EDT...
At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 10 miles south of Erwin to 7 miles southwest of
Marshall, and moving east at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Burnsville, Marshall, Weaverville, Mars Hill, Ramseytown, Green
Mountain, Swiss, Faust, Walnut and Wolf Ridge.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.
LAT...LON 3606 8213 3568 8248 3574 8287 3597 8261
3596 8260 3595 8256 3601 8246 3608 8241
3612 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 280DEG 21KT 3600 8247 3570 8275
LANELocal storm report, Jun 25, 2:20 PM EST, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0317 PM HAIL LEICESTER 35.65N 82.69W
06/25/2018 E0.25 INCH BUNCOMBE NC PUBLIC
PEA SIZE HAIL AND STRONG SUB-SEVERE WINDS.
&&
KRENTZLocal storm report, Jun 25, 2:23 PM EST, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0250 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW BOILING SPRINGS 35.00N 82.00W
06/25/2018 SPARTANBURG SC PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ON TURNING
LEAF CIRCLE
&&Local storm report, Jun 25, 2:28 PM EST, 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW WELLFORD 34.95N 82.11W
06/25/2018 SPARTANBURG SC SOCIAL MEDIA
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON A WOODEN FENCE
IN THE WELLFORD AREA.
&&Special weather statement, Jun 25, 2:28 PM EST, 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
SCZ009-014-252030-
York SC-Chester SC-
328 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CHESTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of York, or near Mcconnells, moving east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, York, Fort Mill, Newport, Lesslie, Mcconnells, Catawba,
Lowrys and Edgemoor.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
Upstate South Carolina.
LAT...LON 3484 8137 3498 8124 3504 8090 3501 8091
3499 8089 3488 8088 3487 8088 3484 8087
3483 8090 3482 8090 3479 8088 3475 8088
3471 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 283DEG 16KT 3488 8118
WJMNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 769036, 769302, 769303, 769310, 769306, 769304, 769311, 769339, 769320, 769322, 769324, 769332, 769333, 769335, 769336, 769337.