Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Pennsylvania, November 14 to 16, 2018

Name: Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Pennsylvania, November 14 to 16, 2018
Start: 2018-11-14T14:47
End: 2018-11-16T04:29
Location: Pennsylvania

November 14 to 16, 2018 · NWS PBZ · 17 events in 17 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 16 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 17

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.

Cold surface temperatures were already in place across the region at least 24 hours leading up to this event. Surface high pressure allowed high temperatures to only reach near freezing while low temperatures bottomed out in the mid-20s. A closed upper level low formed just north of Texas on November 14th and tracked northeast. An abundant amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico traveled with the system into the northeast United States. Freezing rain eventually transitioned to snow when northwest flow began on the backside of the surface low. Four to seven inches of snow was measured north of I-80 and in the higher elevations, meanwhile 1 to 3 inches of snow happened elsewhere.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 14, 12:41 PM EST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 14, 12:41 PM EST, 2 hours 6 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1241 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry but cold conditions will occur Wednesday with high
pressure. Low pressure will bring a wintry mix of precipitation
by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8am update...made minor tweaks to hourly temperatures and sky
grids. The rest of the forecast package is on track.

Previous discussion...
Light snow showers north of I-80 will dissipate later this
morning as increasing high pressure and subsequent subsidence
dry out the boundary layer. A plume of high cirrus plus residual
stratocu from cool NW flow will limit cooling overnight from
previous forecasts...though morning lows will be below freezing
areawide. The lack of significant cloud clearing plus the cold
start will result in high temperatures struggling to reach the
upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All eyes will be on the storm system moving through the
Tennessee Valley into the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday night into Thursday. Two areas of sfc low pressure
will develop in response to the upper level low, the weaker one
over central Kentucky and the stronger one off the Atlantic
coast. They will slowly track northeast well ahead of the
upper level low pressure, which will finally reach the area
late Thursday night before swiftly exiting into the northeast
Friday.

Models are in general agreement on the timing and evolution of
precipitation areas. Precip will reach our southern zones mid-
Thursday morning and spread northward through the day. It will
be reinvigorated late Thursday night into Friday morning with
the passage of the upper level low to our south. As the low
exits, dry air and subsidence will begin, though NW flow will
allow for lake enhanced snow showers throughout the day.

The biggest uncertainty is the temperature profile both at the
sfc and aloft, which will greatly dictate precip type. Latest
model guidance and soundings show a slug of above freezing
850mb temps moving northward ahead of the upper level low at the
onset of the event, putting the onus on sfc temps to remain
at/below freezing to create any wintry mix. Sleet/freezing rain
is anticipated at the onset of this event, but these temps plus
daytime heating will change precip to rain for most areas and
limit wintry accumulations during the daytime. Though looking
much less likely...there remains a very small risk for a
prolonged freezing rain and/or sleet event if sfc temps are
slow to warm above freezing due to reinforcing cold air from the
east. Will keep watch in effect and hold off advisory issuance
for daytime crew who will get final look at model changes ahead
of event start time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally dry and cool weather is expected the rest of the
period as we enter a prolonged period of dry NW flow. A cold
frontal passage Sun could create some precipitation chances,
though the GFS/ECMWF disagree on the amount of lift and
available moisture. Used a blend of these two models for PoPs
during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some occasional MVFR cigs are possible this afternoon under high
overcast skies. Afterwards, all sites will remain VFR until
after sunrise Wednesday when precipitation will move in from
the southwest. By afternoon, all sites should have IFR or low
MVFR cigs. Although a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and
rain is expected, the primary precipitation type at this time
appears to be snow.

Outlook...
Widespread precipitation will come to an end on Friday.
Occasional disturbances will keep a chance of showers in the
forecast through the weekend, primarily north of Pittsburgh.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
     for MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
     for WVZ512>514.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 14, 12:03 PM EST, 2 hours 44 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1203 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511-151715-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-Muskingum-
Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-
Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-
Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-
Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
1203 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and northern panhandle
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Snow is expected to begin late tonight and will peak in intensity
toward rush hour early Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is expected Thursday
into Friday. A winter weather advisory may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-WVZ512>514-151715-
Garrett-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1203 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland and northern
West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Kramar

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

11 winter weather, 6 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Weather, Allegheny

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Allegheny forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 40.469, -79.981 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The NWS Pittsburgh office has light icing in parking lot; cars glazed over. Another NWS Employee measured 0.01 inches of freezing rain at their home in Lawrenceville,PA. The Pittsburgh International Airport measured a trace. Other reported areas impacted by glazed ice from the public: McCandless Township, McKeesport, Bethel Park, Brentwood, Crafton, Avalon, West Mifflin, Dormont, Forest Grove. 16,000 customers were without power across the county. Source: https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2018/11/16/winter-storm-power-outages-thousands-affected/.

Winter Weather, Greene

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Greene forecast zone
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 39.854, -80.223 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

In Waynesburg, there was ice glazing on vehicles reported by the Emergency Manager.

Winter Weather, Washington

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Washington forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 40.189, -80.248 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Traces of ice from freezing rain were observed at Burgettstown, the city of Washington, McMurray, Cecil, and Charleroi.

Winter Weather, Fayette

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Fayette forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 39.920, -79.647 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A trace of freezing rain was reported by the public (via social media) in the following areas: Uniontown, Vanderbilt, and Fairchance.

Winter Weather, Beaver

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Beaver forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 40.682, -80.349 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Public reports of freezing rain across Beaver county; reports made early to late morning on November 15th. Freezing rain switched over over to snow; 2 inches of snow reported in Knob at 10am November 16th. 3,000 customers were also without power. Source: https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2018/11/16/winter-storm-power-outages-thousands-affected/.

Winter Weather, Butler

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Butler forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 40.912, -79.913 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Freezing rain started the morning of November 15th and eventually turned over to snow. By November 16th 2 to 3 inches of snow was reported. Power outages and large tree limbs were down across the county. 56,000 West Penn customers were without power. 16,000 Duquesne Light customers were also without power. Source: https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2018/11/16/winter-storm-power-outages-thousands-affected/.

Winter Weather, Armstrong

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Armstrong forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 40.812, -79.464 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Freezing rain was reported the morning of November 15th across the county. Freezing rain changed to sleet then to snow. 1-3 inches of snow accumulated on top of the ice. 5,000 customers were without power across the county. Source: https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2018/11/16/winter-storm-power-outages-thousands-affected/.

Winter Weather, Lawrence

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Lawrence forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 40.991, -80.334 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Freezing rain started the morning of November 15th. An estimate of 0.2 inches of ice was reported by the public in Mayville. Freezing rain switched over to snow; 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulated on top of the ice the morning of November 16th.

Winter Weather, Mercer

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Mercer forecast zone
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 41.302, -80.258 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Freezing rain started the morning of November 15th. Eventually 2-4 inches of snow accumulated the morning of November 16th.

Winter Weather, Venango

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Venango forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.401, -79.758 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A quarter inch of ice has accumulated from freezing rain by the afternoon of November 15th. Freezing rain eventually switched over to snow. 2-3 inches of snow accumulated by the morning of November 16th.

Winter Weather, Westmoreland

When: November 14, 2:47 PM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Westmoreland forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 40.311, -79.467 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

One to three inches of snow accumulated across the county. A glazing of freezing rain accumulated the morning of November 15th.

Winter Storm, Clarion

When: November 15, 3:27 AM EST to November 16, 4:29 AM EST
Where: Clarion forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 41.192, -79.421 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A combination of ice and snow accumulated November 15 into the 16th. A quarter inch of ice was measured by the Department of Transportation in Shippenville. 4 to 6 inches of snow was measured across the county--higher amounts north of I-80.

Winter Storm, Forest

When: November 15, 3:27 AM EST to November 16, 4:29 AM EST
Where: Forest forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 41.513, -79.236 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A combination of ice and snow accumulated November 15 and 16th. Areas of the county measured 4 to 6 inches of snow. A quarter of an inch of freezing rain was measured in Marienville by the Department of Transportation.

Winter Storm, Jefferson

When: November 15, 3:27 AM EST to November 16, 4:29 AM EST
Where: Jefferson forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 41.128, -78.999 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A combination of snow (up to 4 inches), sleet (1 inch), and ice (up to 0.25 inches) accumulated in a 24 hour period.

Winter Storm, Fayette Ridges

When: November 15, 11:07 AM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Fayette Ridges forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 39.920, -79.647 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Up to 0.25 inches of ice was measured across the ridges of Fayette County. A trained spotter in Point Breeze reported ice on trees was bringing down limbs in the late afternoon. Freezing rain eventually switched over to sleet. Other areas that reported ice: Indian Head, Ohioplye, Mill Run, and Normalville.

Winter Storm, Indiana

When: November 15, 11:07 AM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Indiana forecast zone
Reported by: Public

A quarter of an inch of ice accumulated the evening of November 15th. Two to three inches of snow was measured across the county the morning of November 16th.

Winter Storm, Westmoreland Ridges

When: November 15, 11:07 AM EST to November 16, 1:00 AM EST
Where: Westmoreland Ridges forecast zone
Reported by: Post Office
Coordinates: 40.311, -79.467 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Three to five inches of snow fell across the ridges in 24 hours. A quarter of an inch of ice also accumulated in regions the evening of November 15th.

What these are

Winter Weather: Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.
Winter Storm: A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2018 Every state in 2018 This day in weather history Warnings in Pennsylvania, November 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 794367, 794368, 794369, 794370, 794398, 794399, 794400, 794401, 794403, 794410, 794422, 794411, 794412, 794439, 794371, 794416, 794419.