Flooding in Ohio, April 24 to 25, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1013 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level system crosses to our south tonight and continues to
spread bands of showers into the region. Southern system may
graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold front Friday
night or Saturday. High Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1010 PM Tuesday...

Only minor changes made to better reflect current obs and
trends.

As of 215 PM Tuesday...

The slow moving upper level low continues to edge closer to the
region. This system will cross to our south later tonight,
spreading bands of rain showers across the area through
tomorrow...with greatest rain chances tomorrow expected in the
mountains. Although the unsettled weather with mostly cloudy
skies will persist through the period, temperatures will at
least be close to normal, as highs should climb into the low 60s
by tomorrow afternoon in the Lowlands and 50s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM Tuesday...

Light rain showers taper off from West to East Wednesday night
with the aforementioned upper low exiting toward New England.
Weak high pressure then builds from the West offering a brief
reprieve for early Thursday. Then, the next upper trough comes
through with yet another southern stream system impacting the
area.

Models today agree on a low pressure system to track up the
Smokeys and higher elevations of the Piedmont region Thursday
night through early Friday bringing rain showers. Confidence in
this system's track is somewhat low based on uncertain and
variable model trends... former model runs have trended this
system further West, though today they're more on board for a
more impactful track for this area. Overall, light rain showers
not unlike the current (Tuesday) conditions are expected with
some moderate rates possible given moisture around 1" PWAT.
Current middle-of-the-road model blends indicate up to 0.4" of
rainfall along the Eastern mountains should the system track
this way.

The southern stream system exits toward the NE Friday afternoon,
then a cold front or two attached to a digging northern trough
passes through Friday night. Models disagree on the amount of
moisture with this frontal complex, however impacts would be
minimal regardless.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure will build in through the weekend followed
by a building upper level ridge providing dry weather with
seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the weekend and
into the nest work week. Robust, broad high pressure has the
potential to create calm, clear nights - especially Monday and
Tuesday mornings - so have opted to go on the lower end of minT
guidance, further decreasing low spots prone to radiational
cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

Upper level low to our south providing mixed bag of stratus and
showers across the forecast area, resulting in IFR to MVFR
across the west and VFR across the east. Expect ceilings to drop
late this evening with MVFR to IFR at all TAF sites. LAMP
guidance is very insistent on fog formation tonight, and with
T/Td spreads already very close think it is on to something
despite the continued cloud cover. Conditions will be slow to
improve on Wednesday as the upper level low is slow to move
away.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not form overnight -- or could
develop as more low stratus instead. Timing of category changes
may vary through tomorrow.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 04/25/18
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible into Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC
NEAR TERM...MZ/MPK
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...MZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
219 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-250630-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
219 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.