Drought in Florida, April 24 to 30, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
334 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY: Slow moving upper level low that has been driving our weather
the past few days continues to gradually meander northeastwards
across the TN and OH valleys this morning. Satellite derived PWATs
trace out the path of its associated surface front quite well, with
a sharp demarcation between the 1.6-1.7" values across south and
eastern Florida and the 0.5-1" values across the Panhandle and
northeastern Gulf.

Timing is consistent between models in bringing the front into South
Florida just after midday. Before then, expect most land areas to
remain fairly dry, other than a rouge shower or two, with most
activity over the waters.

Several factors come together in addition to the front's arrival for
another fairly active afternoon across South Florida. Temperatures
aloft remain cool, around -9 to -10C, contributing to steep lapse
rates as surface temperatures will climb back into the mid to
upper 80s and low 90s. We are expected to remain in the moist
sector through this afternoon, with values well above normal.
80-90kt upper level jet and vort max are expected to dip far
enough south to give upper level support to any development.
Potential for weak Atlantic seabreeze development will also aide
surface convergence.

Best coverage should favor Lake Okeechobee and the east coast,
following the best surface convergence, through the afternoon and
early evening hours. Lightning and heavy rain remain the biggest
threats, though strong wind gusts, hail, and potential for
waterspouts/landspouts can't be ruled out given the environment.

TONIGHT: Upper level low is expected to weaken and merge into the
larger trough overnight, bringing its accompanying surface low up
the east coast. As the main axis of the upper trough moves east of
the state, it should drive the surface front south of the area,
leaving only a few lingering showers across the local Atlantic
waters by daybreak Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A few days of dry weather are expected
behind the front for midweek. No appreciable change in highs
temperatures are expected, with values continuing in the mid to
upper 80s both days. Lower humidities will allow cooler overnight
lows ranging from the upper 50s over the interior and mid to upper
60s along the coasts.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: Larger east coast trough is expected to
continue to dominate the pattern into the extended. Several
shortwaves are expected to rotate around its base through the
Northern Gulf coast/Deep South, potentially driving the development
of another weak surface low and some manner of front that slides
down the FL peninsula this weekend.

Over South Florida, we look to see a gradual increase in moisture
from south to north as the old frontal boundary drifts back into the
region. Expect the threat for showers to return to the forecast,
potentially lingering through most of the weekend depending on the
exact evolution of the features further to our north. Daytime highs
look to remain the same, with overnight lows gradually warming back
into the 60s and low 70s.

&&

MARINE...Moderate south-southwest winds today as a frontal boundary
makes its way through the region, veering west-northwest by daybreak
behind the boundary. Expect west-northwest winds around 10kts to
linger into the upcoming weekend. Speeds will be light enough to
generally allow the Atlantic seabreeze to develop near the coast
each afternoon, bringing winds out of the south-southeast.

Showers and storms will be numerous again this afternoon, especially
across Lake Okeechobee and the local Atlantic. Drier conditions are
expected through midweek, with a few showers returning to the
forecast by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Winds will remain south/southwest through the
remainder of the night at around 5 knots, before becoming
southwest and increasing to around 10 knots. VCSH for the east
coast taf sites starting 13/14Z, then VCTS after 18Z for the
remainder of the afternoon. KAPF will see VCSH for the afternoon
hours today. At this time the ceiling and vis will remain in VFR
conditions, but could fall down into MVFR or even IFR conditions
with any shower or thunderstorm moving over the taf site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  88  66  84  67 /  70  30   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  89  70  86  69 /  70  30  10   0
Miami            89  70  85  69 /  70  20  10   0
Naples           84  67  81  64 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...88/ALM
MARINE...88/ALM
AVIATION...54/BNB

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
407 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
250100-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
407 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR/EAST COAST AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS INTERIOR/EAST COAST AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
west coast of South Florida increasing to likely coverage over the
east coast metro areas this afternoon into early this evening.
A few of the thunderstorms could even become strong over the
interior and east coast metro areas with the primary impacts being
hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning strikes.

Wind: The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up
to 50 mph.

Hail: The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail up to
nickel size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters
are encouraged to report high wind, hail and flooding to the National
Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Baxter