Late in the afternoon of the 24th, isolated thunderstorms developed across the southern South Plains near a cold front/dryline triple point. S.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Late in the afternoon of the 24th, isolated thunderstorms developed across the southern South Plains near a cold front/dryline triple point. One of these thunderstorms became severe with hail to the size of quarters between Lorenzo (Crosby County) and Idalou (Lubbock County) along U.S. Highway 62/82.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 24, 5:53 PM CST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 653 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .AVIATION... Nearby strong to severe thunderstorm just east-southeast of KLBB at the start of this TAF. Solutions agree that activity will pull gradually east of KLBB but we retained a VCTS at KLBB for a few more hours. Cumulus field near KCDS and KPVW doesn't appear bubbling much and solutions keep convection away for much of the evening anyway, so removed VCTS for the evening at these sites. Cold front also moving southward and we timed arrival close to the latest HRRR trends - a little quicker than the previous set - and also upped wind speeds. Low cloud deck and increasing showers coverage later tonight also timed a little more closely to HRRR trends though this will likely need adjustment by if not earlier than the next TAF issuance. Mostly MVFR seems favored but deck may drop near 1000 feet briefly later tonight at both KLBB and KPVW. So, forecast will try to remain fluid to this quickly changing environment and we will adjust to the confident trends we see during the evening. RMcQueen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/ DISCUSSION... Dynamic weather remains on tap through the night with the potential for a low end severe event early this evening, gusty post-frontal winds, and a more widespread precipitation overnight. The forecast area remains just downstream from a low amplitude upper level ridge that is centered over New Mexico while further north from the Great Salt Lake to South Dakota lies an upper level trough with a closed low at its eastern end near the South Dakota/Nebraska line. During the next 24 hours or so the upper ridge will squeezed westward by the upper trough toward a higher amplitude ridge that will form over the Great Basin toward southern California. The upper trough/low will rotate to the south-southeast across the central Plains on Wednesday exiting toward the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow evening while upstream another trough takes shape over the Dakotas. In the very near term the focus remains on thunderstorm potential with the possibility of some isolated severe. Surface analysis and radar imagery clearly showing a low near Brownfield with north winds to the west and northwest of Lubbock, hot and dry southwest winds to the southwest of the low and more backed and humid flow to the east and northeast of the low. The expected convective temperature of 88F seems to be working out well with elevated radar echoes developing with cumulus congestus southwest of Lubbock. CAM's have been consistent with developing this convection into thunderstorms as they move into better low level moisture vicinity Tahoka to Post then progressing it in a general eastward direction with potential for a northeasterly directed storm split and potential for supercell development southern Rolling Plains as indicated by progged Supercell Composite values in excess of 4 from SPC analysis pages. Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible particularly early in with the high-based echoes, transitioning to more of a hail threat as storms hit better moisture. However, of note is that for now surface moisture is under-performing relative to the model progs by a few degrees Fahrenheit. This will have some ramifications on CAPE, but mixed level values should still exceed 1000 J/kg in this area of concern. About the time the thunder winds down (02-04Z) a strong cold front that is located across the northern Texas Panhandle mid- afternoon will push quickly through the forecast area with 20-30 mph expected. There is a good chance of slightly higher wind speeds along the NM state line correlated with strongest progged post-frontal pressure rises. Will issue a Wind Advisory for most of the night there. The third issue of the night is additional precipitation potential. The upper trough/low to our north will move southward bringing its own mid level moisture with. Model progs support robust isentropic lift over the frontal surface in advance of the upper trough. This will lead to increasing showers across the forecast area, still favoring the eastern half of the forecast area, but also the possibility of extending toward eastern New Mexico. Of interest is the amount of elevated instability progged to develop after 06z with some indications of CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg supporting the idea of additional thunder late tonight. Isentropic lift and mid level moisture will move quickly eastward after sunrise Wednesday with precip ending from NW to SE followed by clearing in a similar direction later in the morning. Beyond Wednesday things do not look nearly as dynamic. The next upper trough mentioned above will drive a cold front into the region Thursday afternoon or evening, but the window for any meaningful low level moisture return looks negligible and have pulled precip mention. Heading into the weekend the upper trough across the eastern CONUS is replaced by ridging with increased cyclonic flow across the western CONUS, the Pacific NW initially, building southward Monday. This pattern will bring the potential for diurnally-driven dryline type convection possibly as early as Saturday but with a bit better confidence Saturday through Tuesday. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ021-027-033-039. && 99/99/05
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 347 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018 TXZ021>044-252100- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale- Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King- Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 347 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Texas and the Panhandle of Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of surface low pressure will spread eastward from areas to the south of Lubbock toward the Rolling Plains. These thunderstorms will initially have the potential for wind gusts to 65 mph, and will add the potential for hail to the size of golfballs as they move into better low level moisture across and adjacent to the southern Rolling Plains. The greatest risk of severe weather will be south of a Lubbock to Paducah line. Gusty north to northeast winds will develop behind a cold front tonight. The strongest winds are expected near the New Mexico state line from Friona and Bovina southward to Plains and Denver City. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from 8 PM to 5 AM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Thunderstorm chances, and the risk of severe weather, may increase Sunday into Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 22 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:12 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Hail up to the size of quarters was reported at a gasoline station along U.S. Highway 62/82 between Lorenzo and Idalou. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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