Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, September 11, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
257 PM CDT Tue Sep 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Sep 11 2018

Gusty southerly winds continue into late afternoon, some briefly to
40 mph in the Red River Valley. Winds are expected to gradually
diminish towards sunset before subsiding and shifting out of the
northwest towards morning as a cold front moves through. This cold
front is currently making its way into the western CWA sparking some
showers near the international border between the Devils Lake Basin
and Turtle Mountains. A notable shortwave trough visible on water
vapor is making its way into the region from central North Dakota
which will initiate thunderstorms along the cold front. Clusters of
thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly north of US 2 where the
cap is expected to erode coincident with better forcing. CAMs
continue to indicate this occuring around Devils Lake into the
northern Red River Valley between 5-6 PM. These storms move east
across the northern Valley into northwest Minnesota until
dissipating around 10 PM. A few storms could be severe with hail and
gusty winds to 60 mph due to moderate instability that has formed
juxtaposed with wind shear of 30-40 kt.

The cold front makes it as far southeast as west-central Minnesota
before stalling then returning northward as a warm front into
Wednesday. This will initiate additional showers and thunderstorms
early Wednesday morning the next wave moves through southwest flow
aloft. After a brief lull in rain chances, thunderstorms build along
and north of the warm front extending southwest/northeast across the
CWA. Given very steep mid level lapse rates and strong shear
expected, some stronger storms could produce hail and gusty winds,
although storms will be elevated on the cooler side of the warm
front. The very strong lapse rates come with a stout cap that should
prevent convection on the warm side of the front. This will also
allow temperatures to reach into the mid 80s as clouds retreat
northward, whereas north of the front highs struggle to reach into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Sep 11 2018

Impacts for the extended time frame continue to revolve around
precip chances in the active 500mb southwest flow aloft. With the
upper air pattern providing upper support or lift with embedded
speed maxes periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will persist
through the rest of the week and into the weekend until a pattern
change occurs. That appears to occur with a cold frontal passage
early next week though model guidance remains widely spread when the
drier, cooler and more stable air finally filters into the northern
plains. Until then will see the potential for wide ranging temps
across the area with the south seeing afternoon highs in the 70s and
80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. The north will have more daytime
clouds and lower temps with a few intrusions of dry air allowing for
lows to drop into the 40s in the Devils Lake basin. With the cool
down early next week highs will be in the 50s and 60s by Tuesday and
lows in the 30s and 40s for the entire region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Sep 11 2018

VFR with gusty winds continue through the afternoon at all sites,
save DVL, GFK, and TVF as VCTS will be possible between 22-04Z. A
cold front will move through the region this evening shifting
stout winds out of the S/SSE to NW. Winds then slacken and shift
out of the N/NNE towards early morning as the front pushes further
into Minnesota.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CJ
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...CJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
455 PM CDT Tue Sep 11 2018

MNZ001-002-004>009-013>016-NDZ008-016-026>030-054-122200-
West Polk-Norman-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-Pembina-Eastern Walsh County-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Western Walsh County-
455 PM CDT Tue Sep 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible early this evening.
One inch hail and wind gusts up to 60 miles per hour are the main
hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There will be periods of thunderstorms throughout, but the next
chance for thunderstorms capable of producing quarter sized hail
and winds up to 60 mph is Wednesday evening, mainly north of
highway 200.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

MNZ003-017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006-007-014-015-024-038-039-049-
052-053-122200-
Clay-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-
East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-
Towner-Cavalier-Benson-Ramsey-Eddy-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-
Richland-
455 PM CDT Tue Sep 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There will be periods of thunderstorms throughout, but the next
chance for thunderstorms capable of producing quarter sized hail
and winds up to 60 mph is Wednesday evening, mainly north of
highway 200.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.