High Wind in North Carolina, March 2, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
320 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across our region from the Mississippi Valley
today as strong low pressure moves east from the Long Island area.
Windy conditions will gradually diminish going into the weekend as
the center of the high pressure gets closer to our area. The next
cold front arrives on Tuesday bringing cooler weather in mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Very gusty/advisory+ level winds remain confined to the mountains
this morning. However, increasing mixing by late morning will allow
very gusty winds to expand to much of the foothills and Piedmont,
while the surface pressure gradient will remain strong between
1030-ish mb high centered across the upper Mississippi Valley, and
surface low bombing off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Coast. Frequent
wind gusts are expected in the 40 to 50 mph range across the mtn
valleys (50-65 mph across the high peaks and ridge tops) and in the
35 to 45 mph range along the I-40 corridor and I-77 corridor east of
the mtns. While these ranges technically do not meet High Wind
(mtns) and Wind Advisory (Piedmont/foothills) criteria we feel that
the duration of the strong winds along with high soil moisture
content due to the recent wet weather will result in sufficient
impacts in terms of downed trees and power lines to warrant the
headlines. The only areas where I am skeptical of the current
products is across the valleys of southwest NC, where sheltering
effects from the surrounding prominent mountain chains often make it
difficult for strong winds to surface (e.g., AWOSs at Franklin and
near Cullowhee are only reporting 19 kt gusts currently, while gusts
in the 35-45 kts range are occurring at the more exposed and/or
channeling-friendly sites at KAVL and KTNB). Nevertheless, we will
allow the event to unfold a bit more before entertaining any
thoughts of downgrading products.

Otherwise, once the scattered/isolated rain/snow showers taper off
and moisture begins retreating near the TN border later this
morning, the near term will be clear/mostly clear and seasonably
cool. Max temps today will average several degrees below climo
across the high terrain, while downslope flow/compressional heating
will offset the cold advection enough to bring max temps pretty
close to climo across the Piedmont/foothills. Mins tonight are
expected to be a bit cooler than normal in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EST Friday: Starting 12Z Saturday with strong low
pressure well off the mid Atlantic coast and strong Canadian high
pressure over the Mississippi Valley continuing to have a fairly
tight pressure gradient over our eastern forecast zones. Wind will
gradually diminish late Saturday and especially on Sunday as the
center of the high gets closer in a position over the Great Lakes.
Moisture will be rather low and RH values are forecast to be in the
low to mid 20s for a few hours Saturday afternoon and again Sunday
from midday through the afternoon. Breezy conditions in the
mountains and eastern piedmont Saturday afternoon could present
burning concerns in grassy areas where the fuel moisture dries more
rapidly. Sunday would be less of a concern in fire weather with the
lighter wind combined with low RH.

By Monday morning we will be under the influence of the surface high
pressure and the transitioning upper ridge. The next cold front will
be crossing the Mississippi Valley by 12Z Monday morning and
certainly no precip in our forecast at that time. Temperatures a few
degrees below normal Saturday then warming a little on Sunday
especially over the western zones while still cooler I-77 corridor.
Some cloudiness will be increasing from the west by early
Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Fri: Shortwave ridging over the Southeast will come to
an end late Monday as a deep upper trough, and partially occluded
sfc cyclone, move into the Mississippi Valley. A cold front will
encroach on the area Monday night, with PoPs peaking during the
day Tuesday and cold air advection setting up Tuesday night. Most
model guidance depicts sfc temps remaining above normal throughout
the CWFA on the warm side of this system, so we will advertise all
rain until NW flow begins to set up early Wednesday. As the closed
upper low slowly migrates across the eastern states in nearly the
entire remainder of the forecast period, this setup will continue,
as will a persistent rain/snow chance near the Tennessee border. The
GFS and EC are similar in how they evolve the pattern, but the
EC is considerably drier aloft, albeit somewhat colder. The most
impressive part of the event looks to be Wednesday night, when
wraparound moisture saturates the upslope layer well above the
-10C level, and snow chances therefore peak. As a conservative
first guess based on blended QPF, this looks like an advisory
event for the mtns at best.

Downsloping will keep temps above climo in the Piedmont through
Wednesday, though the mountains will fall below climo Tuesday
and remain there through the rest of the period. Thursday may
be a very chilly and breezy day across the area, with highs not
breaking out of the 40s in the mountains.

Very cold mid to upper level temps will be present atop the region
late in the period, beneath the upper low. In conjunction with
the relatively warm sfc temps continuing in the Piedmont, it is no
surprise the GFS develops a small amount of instability Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons. With high LCLs, wet-bulb profiles imply
a few snow flurries could be observed even where temperatures are
near 50F. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Gusty (at most sites anyway) NW winds are
ushering cooler and much drier air into the area early this morning,
and the winds will be the only concern over the next 24 hours. Gusts
will primarily be confined to the NC sites before sunrise, with
around 20 kts gusts likely at KHKY/KCLT and around 30 kts at KAVL.
The NW winds will then begin to increase after sunrise, likely
reaching their peak (25-30 kts gusts across the Piedmont/foothills,
35-40 kts at KAVL) during late morning/early afternoon, gradually
subsiding through the afternoon and evening.

Outlook: Windy conditions will continue to diminish into early
Saturday. Dry/VFR conditions will then persist into early next week
before precip and restrictions chances increase again Monday night
and Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Wind Warning until noon EST Saturday for GAZ010-017.
NC...High Wind Warning until noon EST Saturday for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight
     for NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...High Wind Warning until noon EST Saturday for SCZ001>003.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight
     for SCZ006>009-012>014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
344 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-030845-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
344 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountainous areas of
North Carolina, South Carolina, and far northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...High winds likely. Please refer to the High Wind
Warning.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ006>009-012>014-030845-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-
York-Laurens-Chester-
344 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
eastern upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004-005-010-011-019-030845-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Anderson-Abbeville-Greenwood-
344 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of northeast Georgia
and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 S WOODLAWN            35.77N 82.04W
03/02/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS A TREE DOWN ON A HOME ON HUDGINS WAY. OTHER

            TREES DOWN IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

LANE