An area of rainfall with embedded thunderstorms brought a swath of 1 to 3 inches from the eastern Catskills through the Capital District and into southern Vermont.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
An area of rainfall with embedded thunderstorms brought a swath of 1 to 3 inches from the eastern Catskills through the Capital District and into southern Vermont.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 6:08 AM EST, 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 708 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... With a humid air mass in place, showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with some storms producing heavy downpours and gusty winds. It will remain warm and muggy through the rest of the week, with additional chances for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall again for Thursday through Saturday. Chances for rainfall will diminish later in the weekend, although temperatures will continue to be very warm for Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 625 AM EDT...The upper level pattern has been rather stagnant over the past few days, with a trough located to the west over the Mississippi Valley and Midwest and a strong ridge offshore the Carolinas. With this setup in place, our region has been dominated by a south to southwest flow at all levels, transporting plenty of moisture into the region out of the Gulf of Mexico. After several days of this, PWAT values have risen across the region, with values now around 2.00 inches and dewpoints in the 60s. At the surface, an area of low pressure is located over Lake Erie and is headed northeast across Ontario. Surface high pressure has been located over New England for the past few days, but is finally starting to depart off to the east in response to the approaching low pressure area. Meanwhile, a stalled front draped across the mid-Atlantic is finally lifting northward as a warm front. With some large-scale forcing finally in place over the area, we will start to see some showers across our area this morning. MRMS imagery already shows some showers across northeastern PA and the southern tier of New York and these will be headed northeast towards the area over the next few hours. Still no lightning noted with these showers just yet. 3km HRRR/NAM shows some disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms making a run at our area between the mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Although these showers should be moving quickly, high PWAT values and high freezing levels (around 15 kft) will allow for efficient rainfall processes and locally heavy downpours. Behind this initial batch of showers, some additional showers and thunderstorms are possible for late in the day into tonight as well, as activity over western/central New York drifts eastward towards our area. There may be a little more thunder with this later activity as there should be more instability by that time as well. In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, there is also a conditional threat for some strong to severe t-storms today. As the warm front lift northward, low level helicity will be increasing, with 0-1 SRH values of 100-200 m2/s2. Deep layer shear also looks decent thanks to the strengthening mid-level flow, with 0-6 km shear values expected to reach 30-40 kts. The amount of instability is still somewhat in question, as plenty of cloud cover may limit the exact potential for instability. However, high surface dewpoints may help CAPE values to reach 1000-2000 J/kg today, especially for southern areas. There are a few limiting factors today for severe weather, especially poor mid level lapse rates due to the warm profile aloft and a lack of sufficient height falls. SPC has much of the area in a Slight Risk for severe t-storms with locally gusty winds being the main threat. Also, cannot rule out a brief spin-up tornado, mainly for along the warm front, thanks to localized elevated helicity values along with the moist low-levels and expected low LCL heights. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Little change in the upper level pattern is expected through the entire short term period, as the strong offshore ridge will remain in place and the trough will stay put across the Great Lakes/Midwest, keeping the southwest flow in place across the Northeast. Subtle upper level disturbances will be sliding across the eastern side of the upper level trough, allowing for additional showers and thunderstorms each day, especially when fueled by daytime heating. Widespread showers and t-storms look to occur for both Thursday and Friday, with guidance suggesting Friday possibility having somewhat high coverage due a little better forcing aloft. Locally heavy downpours will be a threat for each day, as PWAT values remain elevated. The threat for flash flooding may increase by later in the week, as the ground may start to become more saturated each day due to rainfall. Although it won't be widespread, still can't rule out a locally strong storm, as precip loading may lead to gusty winds in a few isolated storms each day. Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy each day. Daytime temps look warmest for Thursday, with highs well into the 80s. Highs on Friday may remain in the upper 70s to low 80s for most spots. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s and it will remain rather sticky through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... One system exits Saturday with lingering isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms ending. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s but upper 70s higher terrain. Flat upper ridging builds back into our region Sunday through Tuesday with warmer weather and just an isolated thunderstorm possible by Monday and scattered thunderstorms Tuesday as upper energy from the Great lakes and southern Canada approaches. There could be some prefrontal surface trough convergence Monday but especially Tuesday. The timing of the upper energy and associated cold front is uncertain based on the spread seen in sources of guidance/ensembles. Still, the approaching upper energy, the pre frontal surface trough and the instability that should be in place suggests at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms Tuesday. Based on the expected high temperatures Sunday through Tuesday and the relatively high dew points, there could be some heat indices at or above the mid 90s. So, some heat headlines are possible the beginning of next week. Highs Sunday through Tuesday in the upper 80s to around 90 but lower 80s higher terrain, with heat indices potentially in or above the mid 90s, especially in the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The leading edge of some showers and rain is approaching KPOU and the ceiling there has lowered to MVFR levels. Including VCSH with MVFR conditions at KPOU this morning due to the rain that will track through that area. The lower clouds have reached KPSF and indicating MVFR ceilings there as showers and rain approach KPSF through the morning. The rain and lower clouds will arrive at KALB and KGFL through the morning and midday. Through the afternoon, showers will be come more widespread along a weak warm front over the region and MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be predominant at all TAF sites. Daytime heating will support afternoon and evening thunderstorms and have gone PROB30 for threat of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and IFR conditions late this afternoon and evening. Have timed the PROB30 groups to span the most likely hour or two for thunderstorms, which will likely need adjusting as development of thunderstorms is monitored through the day. The threat continuing the shower threat through tonight since once thunderstorms exit and weaken, some scattered showers could still be over the area with MVFR and borderline IFR conditions. Light southerly to calm winds through mid morning with a southerly flow at 10 knots or less later this morning through this afternoon. Strongest winds expected at KALB. South winds diminish to 6 Kt or less this evening and continue tonight. Winds could be gusty to 35 Kt in thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Outlook... Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and muggy weather is expected for the remainder of the week. Each day through Saturday will feature a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. RH values will remain elevated due to the clouds and rainfall, with values generally over 60%. Winds will generally be from a south to southwest direction at 10 mph or less. && .HYDROLOGY... A humid and active weather pattern will be in place for today through Saturday. A deep southerly flow out of the subtropics will keep humid air in place, with PWAT values around two inches. Showers and thunderstorms are likely each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Although there should be enough flow in place to keep storms moving, locally heavy downpours are possible. This may lead to flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas due to heavy rainfall within a short period of time. Flash flooding may be a threat (especially by late in the week) if showers and thunderstorms track over repeated locations, which is possible due to the persistent flow in place. Although some rises are expected on larger rivers, heavy rainfall won't be widespread enough to cause any flooding of larger, main-stem rivers. However, brief flooding of smaller streams and creeks is possible this week. Dry weather should finally return for Sunday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 442 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-021100- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire- Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer- Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren- Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene- Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster- Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren- Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- 442 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central New York, eastern New York and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. There is a chance of thunderstorms today into tonight, with a slight risk for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening across the majority of the region. The main threat with any storms will be gusty winds. An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out. In addition, any shower or thunderstorm is capable of producing heavy downpours, which may cause flooding of low lying, urban or poor drainage areas. There is a marginal risk for flash flooding for most of the area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a chance of thunderstorms again on Thursday and Friday. The main threat will be for locally heavy downpours and there is a marginal risk for flash flooding on Thursday and a slight risk for Friday. Some of the storms could also produce gusty winds. There is a chance for thunderstorms as well on Saturday and Tuesday. Heat indices may reach the mid-90s for portions of the Hudson Valley Sunday and Monday. If confidence increases in reaching these values, a Heat Advisory may be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Total 24 hour rainfall reports ranged from 1.7 inches to 1.91 inches in Greene county.
Total 24 hour rainfall reports ranged from 0.6 inches to 3.14 inches in Ulster county.
Total 24 hour rainfall reports ranged from 0.90 inches to 1.62 inches across Columbia county.
Total 24 hour rainfall reports ranged from 0.90 inches to 1.62 inches across Columbia county.
Total 24 hour rainfall reports ranged from less than half an inch of rain to 1.91 inches across Rensselaer county.
Total 24 hour rainfall reports ranged from 0.74 inches to 1.92 inches across Greene county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, August 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 779526, 779527, 779528, 779529, 779532, 779533.