Rip Current in California, August 1, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
222 PM PDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain in control through late
this week maintaining above seasonal temperatures over the
interior. Cool onshore flow and a stable and persistent marine
layer will maintain cooler conditions along the coast. Slightly
cooler temperatures appears possible for inland areas over the
weekend, however this will be a short-lived cool down as
temperatures are forecast to increase once again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 2:20 PM PDT Wednesday...Latest observations
show very little change from 24 hours ago. Most locations are
running within 1 or 2 degrees of yesterday's highs. Other then
visible smoke and haze, skies are fairly clear with only a few
areas of low clouds clinging to coastal areas from Bodega Bay to
Point Sur. A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the
Western U.S. while an upper level trough sits off the Pacific
Northwest coast. As this trough gradually lifts to the north and
east the ridge will flatten slightly allowing a few degrees of
cooling over the interior. The 1200-1500 ft marine layer will
continue to keep moderately cool temperatures along the coast.

By the weekend a more robust trough will approach the Pacific
Northwest deepening the marine layer and strengthening the onshore
flow across our area. This shift in the pattern will lead to
slightly cooler temperatures inland as cool marine air is able to
penetrate farther inland. The coast will only see minor
fluctuations.

Models continue to show a shift in the forecast solution for next
week. Models no longer depict the significant cool down we were
anticipating. The trough mentioned above was initially progged to
slide south and east along the coast introducing a cooler airmass
to the region. However, the newest model runs show the low
cutting off over the Eastern Pacific and remaining off the coast
allowing high pressure to remain in place and maintaining
seasonable warm temperatures across the forecast area. We are
still far enough out and will continue to update the forecast as
the solution comes into focus.

Air quality will remain low as a result of the numerous fires
burning across the region. The highest smoke concentrations over
our area remains over portions of Sonoma and Napa Counties.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:55 AM PDT Wednesday...For 18z tafs. Persistent
conditions holding with marine stratus mixing out between 16-18Z
except along the immediate coast. VFR should prevail at all TAF
sites thru the afternoon with stratus beginning to push inland to
coastal taf sites by 02Z THU (ie KMRY) but not arriving at SF
Shoreline taf sits until closer to 08-10Z. Expect a repeat of
last night for tonight, with another round of patchy dense fog
VLIFR cigs up to borderline IFR/MVFR cigs for sites on the
periphery of the marine layer (KSJC). Breezy onshore winds near
the coast with gusty winds up to 30 kt through coastal gaps (ie
near KSFO) by the afternoon to early evening. Some lingering smoke
could reduce visbys for northern/eastern most sites KAPC KLVK
KSTS.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR thru at least 06Z. Breezy afternoon winds
15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt by the late afternoon. IFR cigs
gradually fill in by 11Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR except along the immediate coast.
Breezy onshore winds this afternoon. Marine stratus returns as
early as 02Z and persists thru mid to late morning Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...as of 8:33 AM PDT Wednesday...Breezy to gusty northwest
winds today and through the coming days. The strongest winds are
expected north of Pigeon Point and along the Big Sur coast south
of Point Sur. Gusty winds will generate steep wind waves creating
hazardous sea conditions, particularly for smaller vessels.
Generally light swells will continue through the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 9 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: CW
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP

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