High Wind in Montana, November 4, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1030 AM MST Sun Nov 4 2018

Updated Aviation Discussion

.UPDATE...

Main update this morning was to increase winds over western
portions of north-central MT, where favorable atmospheric
conditions are in place for downslope/mtn wave wind enhancement
through about mid-day. This has resulted in wind gusts 45-55mph
from Great Falls to Cut Bank this morning with higher gusts along
the immediate east slopes. Main swath of precipitation across the
plains and valleys continues to shift east this morning/afternoon
with the initial surge of Pacific moisture. Additional
disturbances moving through moist WNW flow aloft will continue to
bring showers through this afternoon with snow continuing across
the mtns. Still on track for several inches of additional
accumulation today across the Little Belts and Mtns of southern
Gallatin county where a winter weather advisory continues. Other
mountain areas across SW and north-central MT will see snow with
accumulation generally less than an inch over Mtn Passes with some
higher amounts at the highest elevations. Hoenisch

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist Pacific cold front will move through the region today.
Expect lower elevation rain and mountain snow to affect much of
the region today. Windy conditions are also expected, especially
along the front range of the Rockies and the adjacent Plains.
Colder temperatures will move into the region for Monday through
Wednesday, with periods of light snow possible through the first
half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1800Z.
Gusty west winds will continue or develop at most TAF sites through
this afternoon. Frontal boundary and surface wind shift to NW moves
S into the KCTB and KHVR areas this evening, continuing south to
KGTF and KLWT by Monday morning with diminishing winds in all areas
tonight. Showery precipitation will continue in the vicinity of most
TAF sites with widespread precipitation mainly over the Mtns.
Generally VFR conditions with some local MVFR at times at TAF sites,
though widespread IFR and Mtn obscuration will persist over the
Mtns. Hoenisch

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 445 AM MST Sun Nov 4 2018/
Today thru Tonight...Ample Pacific moisture continues to move
eastward ahead of a Pacific cold front. Snow will continue at
higher elevations, with generally rain expected at lower
elevations today. The winter weather highlights for today/this
evening look on track, no adjustments at this time. Colder air
moves into the region tonight, changing any rain to snow by Monday
morning. Additionally, expect windy conditions today, especially
over the western portions of North Central MT.

Monday thru Tuesday...Scattered snow showers will move through
the region, as a northwesterly flow aloft develops over the area.
Temperatures will trend colder each day.

Tuesday night thru Wednesday night...The first significant cold
front of the season will move southward into the region. Light
snow is possible along the cold front, but little to no snow is
expected in the Havre/Harlem area and for areas southwest of
Dillon, near the MT/ID border. There is the potential for 1 to 3
inches of snowfall at lower elevations and a 3 to 6 inch snowfall
possible in the mountains. Winter weather highlights might be need
for portions of the region for this event. Overnight lows could
fall into the single digits by Thursday morning in some areas.

Thursday thru Sunday...Expect slowly moderating temperatures, but
still temperatures will average close to 10 degrees below normal
next weekend. Scattered snow showers are possible in the
northwesterly flow aloft. Of note, the EC model tries to develop
an upper level ridge by next weekend, resulting in warmer/drier
conditions. Thus for now I leaned more towards a blend for next
weekend. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  29  38  22 /  40  30  40  40
CTB  50  24  35  17 /  20  30  30  30
HLN  50  33  44  27 /  30  30  40  40
BZN  49  30  42  25 /  90  40  50  50
WEY  37  22  35  17 /  90  50  50  40
DLN  47  28  41  23 /  30  20  30  30
HVR  52  24  38  16 /  90  50  20  10
LWT  48  28  37  19 / 100  60  50  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening Cascade...
Meagher.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening Gallatin.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
808 AM MST SUN NOV 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.36N 113.11W
11/04/2018  M78 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DCRM8, DEEP CREEK RAWS.

0622 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/04/2018  M56 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTBRN, TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE
            MDT.

0750 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK           48.60N 112.38W
11/04/2018  M52 MPH          GLACIER            MT   ASOS

            ASOS STATION CTB, CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0645 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM              47.98N 112.61W
11/04/2018  M49 MPH          TETON              MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DELMT, DELLWO - 13 W BYNUM.

0644 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 15 WNW WOLF CREEK       47.09N 112.37W
11/04/2018  M45 MPH          LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTROG, ROGERS PASS MT200
            MDT.

0651 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS       47.47N 111.38W
11/04/2018  M45 MPH          CASCADE            MT   ASOS

            ASOS STATION GTF, GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1144 AM MST SUN NOV 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 14 W BYNUM              47.98N 112.61W
11/04/2018  M61 MPH          TETON              MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DELMT, DELLWO - 13 W BYNUM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MST SUN NOV 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE BROWNING           48.54N 112.98W
11/04/2018  M50 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTBWG, BROWNING MDT.

&&