High Wind in Montana, November 2, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
927 AM MDT Fri Nov 2 2018

.UPDATE...

A fairly strong shortwave trough continues to progress east toward
the northern Rockies this morning with mild and moist Pacific air
streaming ahead across the Northern Rockies and MT. Temperatures
this morning are already in the 50s across western portions of the
forecast area and max temperatures today were nudged up a few
degrees in these areas. Cool low level airmass remains in place
across NE portions of North-central MT where some overrunning
rain also persists but should decrease somewhat this afternoon as
the lee-side surface trough begins to move off to the east,
allowing westerly winds and mild air to overspread areas further
east. Winds are already gusting strongly along the immediate rocky
Mtn front region and on track to further increase as well as
expand to the east as the lee-side trough pulls away from the east
slopes and wave aloft brings some extra mixing this afternoon. No
changes to current set of High Wind Highlights. A more unstable
airmass this afternoon along with the incoming shortwave will
bring an increase in the coverage of showery precipitation across
all areas. Snow levels remain relatively high through much of
today before falling this evening. Hoenisch

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will continue to build over the area this morning,
with a set of upper level waves tracking over the area from the
North and West today. Precipitation over the forecast area will
briefly diminish early this morning, only to pick back up again
later this morning through early Saturday morning. Very windy and
mild conditions are expected today with strong winds across
portions of North Central Montana. A cold front moves through the
region this evening bringing colder temperatures along with a
possible period of rain and snow at lower elevations tonight. A
cool and unsettled weather pattern persists through much of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1140Z.

Widespread VFR conditions continue to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR
conditions early this morning, as moist northwesterly flow persists
over the region. Some terminals have seen a mix of rain and snow
overnight last night and into early this morning already, with
temperatures dipping closer to the freezing mark. By late this
morning, most areas will see improvements in ceiling and visibility,
but strong and gusty westerly winds will develop along the east
slopes of the Continental Divide and over the plains of
central/north-central Montana. Some terminals may experience LLWS
as the front passes through this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 540 AM MDT Fri Nov 2 2018/
Mild and windy conditions are expected today with somewhat
stronger winds aloft depicted by recent Models across a larger
portions of North-central MT. Strong winds are possible as far
south as southern Lewis and Clark county and as far east as Judith
Basin County. The low pressure system moves southeastward from
the east slopes of the US/Canadian Rockies to eastern Montana this
evening, dragging a cold front behind which sweeps SE across
North-central MT this evening. Models have come into better
agreement with the upslope NW/N flow following the front this
evening, which would result greater precipitation chances,
especially for areas along and adjacent to the north-slopes of the
Little Belt Mtns. Models are currently indicating 4 to 7 inches
of accumulating snowfall over the King's Hill area.

The system exits the region Saturday morning for drier conditions
across the region. Active weather continues through much of next
week as a series Pacific systems move quickly E/SE across the
region. Latest model guidance indicates the next system arrives on
Sunday. Model consensus degrades significantly next week with
regard to the timing and amplitude of these additional systems.

-TPepe

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  29  48  36 /  30  70  20  30
CTB  58  26  48  32 /  70  60   0  30
HLN  59  35  48  35 /  30  50   0  30
BZN  58  33  45  30 /  50  50  40  40
WEY  43  24  39  25 /  80  40  10  50
DLN  57  31  44  30 /  30  20   0  20
HVR  53  26  47  31 / 100  50   0  20
LWT  55  26  45  30 /  50  80  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Judith Basin.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon Eastern
Glacier...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT
Saturday Cascade...Meagher.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
753 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK  48.36N 113.11W
11/02/2018  M87 MPH          GLACIER            MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DCRM8, DEEP CREEK RAWS.

&&

BH