A cold front crossed central Pennsylvania during the evening hours of November 2, 2018, generating a narrow cold frontal rainband across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. A storm survey was performed for wind damage that was associated with a wet microburst just north of Stewartstown in York County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
A cold front crossed central Pennsylvania during the evening hours of November 2, 2018, generating a narrow cold frontal rainband across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. A storm survey was performed for wind damage that was associated with a wet microburst just north of Stewartstown in York County. Wind damage was also observed when this line crossed Lampeter and Strasburg in Lancaster County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 6:15 PM EST, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 715 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure will move rapidly through the region this evening with brisk and cooler conditions expected on Saturday on the back side of the departing storm. A brief period of fair weather will occur on Sunday followed by a new frontal system by Election Day. Cooler and drier weather will follow for the second part of Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A strong jet streak is enticing a frontal surface wave and a burgeoning area of rain that is racing NE over the region this evening. A quick interpolation has the back edge of the steady rain moving into Somerset County soon. The rain will be ending in the Altoona and State College areas between about 8 and 9PM. Rain will taper to showers over the Susq Valley between about 10 and midnight. HRRR shows QPF on the order of 1-2" over the SE from about Adams County up through Schuylkill and eastward. This area will need to be monitored for short-term mainly nuisance flooding issues this evening. Concern remains that a stray stronger shower could bring down some of the howling winds aloft, but convective instability is meager at best. Latest RAP meso anal shows no CAPE and anemic lapse rates. However dynamics are vigorous associated with a 170+ upper jet streak. GFS progs show 500 absolute vorticity on the equatorward side of the jet to be strongly negative, suggestive of an inertially unstable airmass and possibly the potential for slantwise convection. One feature to watch will be the upper low pivoting across the area in the 06-12Z Saturday window. Model consensus has trended a bit wetter during this time and temperatures will be cold enough to support rain/wet snow mix over north-central PA. Surface and road temps remain too warm for accumulation but a coating on the grass is not out of the question in the highest elevations >2000ft. West-northwest winds will direct cooler air into central PA by Saturday morning with upslope rain/snow showers lingering over the Laurel Highlands and northwest Alleghenies. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Expect a drying trend through the day on Saturday with clearing skies into Saturday night. After a few relatively mild days, it will feel noticeably colder with a brisk/gusty wind adding to the chill. Gusts in the 30-35 mph range are expected and could blow around unsecured property. Highs will vary from around 40F in the northwest mtns to the low 50s in the southeast. 24-hr maxT change will be -10 to -20 degrees colder than yesterday. Gusty winds will gradually subside by late in the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Not a lot of change for this period. Mainly did edge temperatures up a little in some periods. The other change was to go with a dry fcst after Wednesday. Anyway, skies should clear into Saturday night with temps bottoming out very close to minT climo. Expect max temps to moderate a bit on Sunday with clouds increasing by late in the day. The early part of next week looks to be rather unsettled. Monday looks rainy, damp and cool. A deep storm is forecast to move through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, sending a strong cold front through central PA for Election Day. Heavy rain is possible along with a band of low-topped convection. Gusty winds and cooler air will follow in the wake of this system for Wednesday into Thursday. Pattern favors a low lifting northeast late Tuesday, like last night. The combination of west to northwest flow at low levels and west to southwest flow at mid lvls, not good for seeing lake effect late Wednesday into Thursday, thus I did cut most of the lake effect showers out. Went with a dry fcst for Friday into next Saturday, largely based on the 00Z EC, current pattern, and superblend, which shows a pattern similar to Wednesday and Thursday. Some hints that southern branch of the jet could phase in better, but many days out, so will go with a dry fcst for now. Should current pattern hold, then one would see a cool down every few days, followed by a warm up and some showers between systems, with nothing real cold. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure lifting up the east coast will bring a period of rain to the southeast half of Pa this evening. The heaviest rain with tempo ifr vsbys will occur in vicinity of KMDT/KLNS until about 03Z. Latest models indicate the rain will push east of the forecast area by around 03Z. Behind the storm, upslope flow will yield borderline ifr/low mvfr cigs along the spine of the Appalachians from KBFD south through KJST tonight. The drying effect of downsloping flow should yield progressively better conditions further east, with borderline high mvfr/vfr cigs at KUNV/KAOO and predominantly vfr conditions east of there. A gusty west-northwest wind will develop Saturday morning in the wake of departing storm system. Bukfit soundings indicate gusts between late morning and late afternoon could range between 30-35kts over northwest Pa and 35-40kts over the southeast half of the state. Lingering low cigs over the western high elevation terminals should lift to primarily vfr conditions during the afternoon. .Outlook... Sun...No sig wx expected. Mon-Tue...Periods of rain/low cigs/LLWS likely. Wed...Low cigs/showers psbl western 1/3. Gusty winds. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...La Corte/Martin/Steinbugl NEAR TERM...La Corte/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service State College PA 1034 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056-063-031445- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Cumberland- 1034 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ057>059-064>066-031445- Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- 1034 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A period of heavy rain this evening into early tonight could produce localized flooding. Isolated wind gusts near severe limits are also possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
835 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018
PAZ065-030115-
York PA-
835 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY...
At 831 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Gamber Maryland, moving northeast at 55 mph.
Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible as this storm moves into
southeast York county between 9 pm and 915 pm.
Locations impacted include...
Red Lion, Shrewsbury and Fawn Grove.
LAT...LON 3972 7688 4002 7652 3999 7650 3997 7650
3993 7645 3991 7639 3987 7638 3981 7632
3972 7646
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 226DEG 48KT 3948 7701
KFSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
915 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018
PAZ065-066-030215-
York PA-Lancaster PA-
915 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018
...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS COMING THROUGH AREA...
At 912 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy showers along a line
extending from near Glen Rock to 7 miles east of Hampstead. Movement
was northeast at 45 mph.
Localized wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible in a few spots as
this line of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms come through
southeast York and Lancaster counties between 915 pm and 10 pm.
Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Red Lion, Paradise, Shrewsbury, Quarryville,
Stewartstown and Windsor.
LAT...LON 3984 7671 4027 7607 4014 7587 4010 7594
4004 7594 3996 7599 3987 7599 3985 7602
3981 7603 3980 7605 3976 7606 3976 7608
3973 7610 3974 7611 3972 7614 3972 7673
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 238DEG 40KT 3983 7669 3960 7671
KFThe Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 145 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:51 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees along Route 741 between Lampeter and Strasburg. One of the trees fell on a home.
Straightline winds associated with a microburst damaged a handful of structures in Hopewell Township, just north of Stewartstown. Maximum winds were estimated to be 75 to 85 mph, with a maximum path width of 200 yards and a path length over three miles.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, November 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 783604, 783602.