Montana, 2018Blizzard in Montana, February 23 to 24, 2018
February 23 to 24, 2018 · NWS TFX · 3 events in 3 counties and zones
A series of 700 mb weather disturbances moved generally eastward over North-Central Montana between late evening of February 22nd and early evening of the 24th. During the same period, 700 mb winds became more westerly and strengthened, overall, along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front.
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A series of 700 mb weather disturbances moved generally eastward over North-Central Montana between late evening of February 22nd and early evening of the 24th. During the same period, 700 mb winds became more westerly and strengthened, overall, along and east of the Rocky Mountain Front. This caused a surface trough of low pressure east of the Rocky Mountain Front to deepen, especially during late morning of the 23rd through early morning of the 24th. As the trough deepened, a tightening pressure gradient drove strong, gusty, and westerly surface winds, leading to blizzard conditions along the Rocky Mountain Front.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 23, 9:35 AM MST, 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 23, 9:35 AM MST, 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
935 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018
.UPDATE...
Morning update has been published, with only minor adjustments
made to winds and temperatures for today. Lowered high temperatures
across the Southwest Montana Valley's and in the Milk River
Valley across North Central Montana for today, as limited mixing
and the depth of the cold/Arctic air in place should be stubborn
to moderate in these areas today. In addition, increased winds
slightly further along the Rocky Mountain Front and across the
plains of North Central Montana to account for current observed
values and latest guidance from the 12z WRF models. Blowing and
drifting snow has already been noted along the Rocky Mountain
Front this morning via webcams, with some roads already becoming
closed (ie United States Highway 89 from Two Medicine Creek to
Browning) or reporting severe driving conditions. Expect
conditions to deteriorate further along the Rocky Mountain Front
and into Eastern Glacier County today as wind speeds increase
further. Given high temperatures across this region won't exceed
freezing, am not worried about the snow crusting over and not
being able to be blown around. The one limiting factor to how much
snow blows around today is how much has already be scoured
out/compacted from recent wind events, which unfortunately is
unknow from this distance here in Great Falls. - Moldan
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions are expected Friday, and again on Sunday, which
will lead to impacts from blowing and drifting snow. Along the
Rocky Mountain Front, ground blizzard conditions are expected
today through early Saturday morning. Periods of snow are expected
over the mountains but lower elevations should remain mostly dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
Updated 1140Z.
Areas of light snow will continue to produce IFR/MVFR conditions
across portions of southwest Montana through 15Z with improving
conditons thereafter. Remainder of the forecast area is expected to
see primarily VFR conditions with areas IFR/MVFR due to freezing fog
through about 18Z. Strong and gusty southwest to westerly winds
develop along the Rocky Mountain Front this morning then spread out
over the plains through the day. Widespread blowing and drifting
snow is expected along the front range of the Rockies producing
areas IFR/MVFR visibilities through the forecast period. Patchy
blowing snow is expected over the plains. mpj
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 440 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018/
Today through Sunday...Montana will remain remain under the
influence of upper level troughing through the short term forecast
period. A disturbance moving through the upper trough will
continue to bring light snow to portions of southwest Montana this
morning with only minor accumulations expected. Periods of snow
can also be expected over the mountains of the Continental
Divide at times through the short term but the plains are expected
to remain mostly dry. Biggest concern for the short term
continues to be strong and gusty winds causing blowing and
drifting snow today through early Saturday morning, especially
along the Rocky Mountain Front. Have kept the Blizzard Warning for
this area intact with no major changes in the forecast
anticipated. Another round of windy weather can be expected on
Sunday with winds possibly exceeding high wind criteria over a
large portion of north central and central Montana. Have kept the
Winter Storm Watch in effect for now, but the Sunday event will
also feature warmer temperatures for much of the region. This
raises the possibility that blowing snow may not become as
widespread as anticipated if temperatures are sufficiently high to
cause the existing snowpack to crust over. mpj
Sunday Night through Friday...A broad low pressure trough will
remain over North America through this period, but some differences
develop among the models beginning on Wednesday. A progressive
weather pattern with a mostly westerly flow aloft with weak embedded
disturbances will persist through Tuesday night. The strong westerly
winds will decrease overnight Sunday night and into Monday as a
shortwave trough swings southeast through the Pacific Northwest and
into the Great Basin. This will keep the best chance for snow in the
mountains of western and southwest Montana with decreasing blowing
snow. This shortwave will then split Monday night and Tuesday,
sending the strongest energy south toward the western U.S./Mexico
border through Wednesday and leaving only a chance of mountain snow
for the forecast area. As mentioned above, this is where the
divergence in forecast solutions develops. The ECMWF and Canadian
models dig a deep upper level low pressure area south along the
Canadian and U.S. Pacific coasts for Thursday through Friday. This
would bring an increasingly moist southwest flow to the forecast
area, as well as an increasing chance of snow over the entire
forecast area, especially for Friday. The GFS model maintains more
of a westerly flow aloft through the latter part of the work week,
which would keep the better chance for snow over the mountains, as
westerly downslope winds keep the plains mostly dry. Will therefore
go with a chance of snow near climatological normals for this period
and make adjustments as models progress over the next few days.
Model consensus temperatures do not vary much through this period,
keeping highs mostly 10 to 15 degrees below normal (in the 20s) and
lows 5 to 10 degrees below normal (in the single digits to lower
teens). Coulston
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 25 16 29 11 / 0 0 20 20
CTB 24 14 28 10 / 0 0 20 10
HLN 23 6 30 9 / 0 10 40 30
BZN 19 3 26 6 / 0 10 30 50
WEY 18 -2 17 -3 / 30 60 70 60
DLN 17 7 22 4 / 30 20 50 30
HVR 13 10 23 5 / 0 0 10 10
LWT 24 11 27 11 / 0 0 20 40
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
Blaine...Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Toole.
Blizzard Warning until 6 AM MST Saturday Eastern Glacier...
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.
&&
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
Blizzard, Southern Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- February 23, 9:42 AM MST
- Where
- Southern Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
Blizzard conditions reported 17 miles WSW of Bynum by trained spotter. Near-zero visibility in significant blowing snow. Snow drifts up to about 20 feet.
Blizzard, North Rocky Mountain Front
- When
- February 23, 3:57 PM MST
- Where
- North Rocky Mountain Front forecast zone
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
Peak wind gust of 82 mph reported by trained spotter in Babb. Spotter also noted significant blowing snow reducing visibility to near a quarter mile.
Blizzard, Eastern Glacier
- When
- February 24, 10:15 AM MST
- Where
- Eastern Glacier forecast zone
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
Montana DOT reported single lane traffic along MT-213 between Cut Bank and the Canada border. One lane was closed due to at least one large snow drift and special equipment was needed to remove the snow.
- Blizzard
- Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Oklahoma, February 23 to 24, 2018$125,000 · 6 events
- Dense Fog in Maryland, February 23 to 24, 201816 events
- Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Michigan, February 23, 201813 events
- Heavy Snow in Idaho, February 23 to 26, 201812 events
- High Surf in Hawaii, February 23 to 28, 20188 events
- Flooding in Oklahoma, February 23 to 26, 20184 events
- Winter Weather in Utah, February 23, 20183 events
- Winter Weather in Pennsylvania, February 23, 20182 events
- Winter Storm in Alaska, February 23 to 24, 20182 events
- Winter Storm in Idaho, February 23 to 25, 20182 events
- Winter Weather in New Jersey, February 23, 20181 event
- High Wind in Montana, February 23, 201871 kt wind · 1 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 735865, 735866, 735867.