NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 9:04 AM EST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 18, 9:04 AM EST, 1 hour 56 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1004 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary stalls across northern portions of the
forecast area through tonight, bringing periodic showers and
thunderstorms, with the likelihood for heavy rainfall. Somewhat
drier air arrives during the weekend as the upper level low
pressure system weakens.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Friday...
Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening for much
of the area...
Impressive/excessive RA event since Thu afternoon...esp over
central/scentral VA as deep layered southerly flow transported
anomalous moisture over sfc frontal boundary stalled over the
FA. The intensity/coverage of the RA has decreased (though there
is a fairly large area of RA still over the lower MD ern shore
attm). See latest FLW/FLS products for current warnings and
statements over the area that have been issued recently to
account for the heavy rain that has been on the order of 2-4"
most areas (locally up to 5-8" since yesterday in a few spots).
The overall pattern does not change much through (at least) this
eve, w/ the upr trough over the Mid-South and a stalled frontal
boundary sitting over the local area. Keeping Flood Watch
continue through midnight tonight for now (will re-evaluate this
afternoon)...though axis of highest/deepest moist and potential
+RA may eventually shift to ESE portions of VA and NE NC later
tonight (but these areas have seen only spotty excessive amounts
thus far). Highs today from the l-m60s on the lower MD ern
shore to the 70s elsewhere (around 80 F in NE NC). Keeping PoPs
60-100% over much of the local area w/ exception to CHC PoPs far
SE VA-NE NC...w/ additional heavy rain still a concern.
The sfc front will begin lifting north as the upper level low
begins to weaken/transition into an open wave while pushing NE
to the lower OH Valley. The threat for heavy rain will focus
more to the along and/or E of I-95 after midnight and into
Sat...though the duration attm is not expected to be long
enough to warrant a flood Watch across SE VA/NE NC. Warm/humid
again tonight with lows mainly 65-70 F (except cooler MD eastern
shore).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...
As the transition of the upper low continues on Sat, the flow
aloft will be stronger from the SW and thus the chance for
training storms and widespread flooding will be lower (even
though heavy downpours will continue). Most if not all of the FA
is expected to get back into the warm sector Sat aftn as axis
of deepest moisture shifts to the coast/offshore. So...highs Sat
will genly be in the upper 70s to lower 80s (low-mid 70s on
most of the eastern shore). With some sunshine possible, there
is a bit more potential for stronger tstms by Sat aftn/evening
though much uncertainty remains and it would likely be only a
marginal risk at best. PoPs will genly be high chance to likely
(50-70%).
Sun will be warm and moderately humid w/ VRB clouds/partly
sunny conditions. Will have PoPs 20-40% (highest over far SE VA-
coastal NE NC)...primarily for afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms. Highs
from the u70s-l80s on the ern shore to the mid 80s well inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...
Unsettled wx expected to continue early in the extended forecast
period then a trend toward drying/improving wx now highlighted mid
week. A gradual break down of the moist SSW flow expected as westerlies
aloft strengthen and finally push a (and more significant) cold
front through the region (Wed). Keeping PoPs above climo Sun
night through Tue (mainly 30-40%) for SHRAS...mainly diurnally
driven tstms. Lowering PoPs to aob 15-30% Wed-Thu.
Highs each day mainly in the 80s...w/ lows in the 60s-70F.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 AM EDT Friday...
An area of widespread showers with embedded tstms is currently
impacting the Lower Eastern Shore of Maryland, bringing heavy
downpours with IFR visibilities to SBY. Scattered showers are
impacting the other terminals with light to moderate rain.
Showers will continue to impact the terminals for the bulk of
the TAF period, with the heaviest rain at RIC/SBY. IFR/LIFR
ceilings at SBY briefly lifted around 11z as the heavier rain
moved in, but BKN IFR cigs (~500 ft) have returned and will
persist for the bulk of the TAF period. Elsewhere, expect MVFR
ceilings for the bulk of the TAF period with a possible return
to IFR cigs early Saturday AM.
OUTLOOK... Shower/tstm chances continue on Saturday, as the frontal
boundary gradually lifts northward. Somewhat drier conditions
potentially arrive by Sunday. Patchy early morning MVFR/IFR stratus
will be possible on both Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances continue
through early next week, as mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms
are possible on Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...
A frontal boundary will remain stalled acrs the northern portions
of the marine area into this evening. This will result in winds
remaining E 5-15 kt off the MD coast, the nrn portion of the VA
ern shore, and over the upper Bay. SE or S winds 5-15 kt will
persist over the middle to lower Bay and the remainder of the
coastal waters through tonight. E then SE winds, then winds
becoming S and increasing to 15-20 kt late tonight into Sat
night, will result in seas building to 4-6 ft over the nrn three
coastal zns. Thus, have issued a SCA for these zns starting late
tonight for 650/652, and starting early Sat aftn for 654.
Expect S winds 10-20 kt over the waters fm later Sat aftn into
Sat night, then SW 10-15 kt very late Sat night thru Sun. SCA
conditions will be marginal for the Bay Sat/Sat night, and have
capped speeds at 15 kt for now. Bermuda high pressure well
offshore will keep winds SSW 5-15 kt Sun night thru Tue.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1000 AM EDT Friday...
Flood warnings continue for the James River basin. New warnings
have been issued for Lawrenceville...Rawlings and Stony Creek on
the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers. Recent heavy rain along with
the expectation of more heavy rain has resulted in a forecast of
minor to moderate flooding. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more
details.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
075>090-092-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ654.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ650-652.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...AKQLocal storm report, May 18, 10:03 AM EST, 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1103 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1026 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW BUCKTOWN 38.45N 76.09W
05/18/2018 M2.69 INCH DORCHESTER MD MESONET
MESONET STATION BLWM2, 3 WSW BUCKTOWN.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN EAST NEW MARKET 38.60N 75.92W
05/18/2018 M2.73 INCH DORCHESTER MD COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION MD-DR-10, EAST NEW MARKET.
0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE LINKWOOD 38.51N 75.91W
05/18/2018 M3.12 INCH DORCHESTER MD COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION MD-DR-9, 2 SE LINKWOOD.
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N WINGATE 38.31N 76.08W
05/18/2018 M2.17 INCH DORCHESTER MD MESONET
MESONET STATION D2613, 1 N WINGATE.
0903 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW PRINCESS ANNE 38.17N 75.71W
05/18/2018 M4.22 INCH SOMERSET MD COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION MD-SS-1, 2 SSW PRINCESS
ANNE.
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN CRISFIELD 37.98N 75.86W
05/18/2018 M3.12 INCH SOMERSET MD MESONET
MESONET STATION CRSFL, CRISFIELD.
1019 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW PITTSVILLE 38.36N 75.43W
05/18/2018 M2.55 INCH WICOMICO MD MESONET
MESONET STATION PWLM2, 2 SSW PITTSVILLE.
1043 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW SHAD POINT 38.37N 75.66W
05/18/2018 M3.16 INCH WICOMICO MD MESONET
MESONET STATION C1767, 2 NW SHAD POINT.
0807 AM HEAVY RAIN LAKEWOOD 38.33N 75.59W
05/18/2018 M2.11 INCH WICOMICO MD COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION MD-WC-22, LAKEWOOD.
1036 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW HEBRON 38.40N 75.69W
05/18/2018 M4.91 INCH WICOMICO MD MESONET
MESONET STATION AU888, 1 SSW HEBRON.
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE WEST OCEAN CITY 38.33N 75.08W
05/18/2018 M3.56 INCH WORCESTER MD MESONET
MESONET STATION OCNPP, 1 ESE WEST OCEAN
CITY.
1039 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE OCEAN PINES 38.39N 75.13W
05/18/2018 M2.01 INCH WORCESTER MD MESONET
MESONET STATION E6548, 1 ENE OCEAN PINES.
1040 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SE PUBLIC LANDING 38.08N 75.20W
05/18/2018 M2.49 INCH WORCESTER MD MESONET
MESONET STATION ASTM2, 6 SE PUBLIC LANDING.
1000 AM HEAVY RAIN NEW CHURCH 37.98N 75.53W
05/18/2018 M2.81 INCH ACCOMACK VA MESONET
MESONET STATION VA025, NEW CHURCH.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 N ALBERTA 36.94N 77.90W
05/18/2018 M2.25 INCH BRUNSWICK VA CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ALBV2, 5 N ALBERTA.
0933 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW FORT A.P. HILL 38.10N 77.27W
05/18/2018 M2.04 INCH CAROLINE VA MESONET
MESONET STATION TT215, 1 SSW FORT A.P. HILL.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S DAWN 37.81N 77.36W
05/18/2018 M3.94 INCH CAROLINE VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-CL-6, 1 S DAWN.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNW BURRUSS CORNER 37.94N 77.43W
05/18/2018 M5.25 INCH CAROLINE VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-CL-7, 3 NNW BURRUSS
CORNER.
0933 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE BOWLING GREEN 38.07N 77.32W
05/18/2018 M4.06 INCH CAROLINE VA MESONET
MESONET STATION TT216, 2 NE BOWLING GREEN.
1033 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N SPARTA 38.04N 77.24W
05/18/2018 M2.73 INCH CAROLINE VA MESONET
MESONET STATION FAPV2, 3 N SPARTA.
1029 AM HEAVY RAIN BOWLING GREEN 38.04N 77.34W
05/18/2018 M5.08 INCH CAROLINE VA MESONET
MESONET STATION BWCCD, BOWLING GREEN.
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN MIDLOTHIAN 37.51N 77.64W
05/18/2018 M3.60 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-CS-19, MIDLOTHIAN.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 S MIDLOTHIAN 37.43N 77.64W
05/18/2018 M2.33 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-CS-41, 5 S MIDLOTHIAN.
1029 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 S MIDLOTHIAN 37.44N 77.64W
05/18/2018 M6.80 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA MESONET
MESONET STATION MDLSC, 4 S MIDLOTHIAN.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW BEACH 37.33N 77.64W
05/18/2018 M3.24 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-CS-20, 3 WSW BEACH.
1042 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 S MIDLOTHIAN 37.43N 77.64W
05/18/2018 M2.04 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA MESONET
MESONET STATION C5612, 5 S MIDLOTHIAN.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W WINTERPOCK 37.32N 77.65W
05/18/2018 M3.23 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WTPV2, 4 W
WINTERPOCK.
1029 AM HEAVY RAIN BON AIR 37.53N 77.56W
05/18/2018 M4.12 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA MESONET
MESONET STATION RCRMR, BON AIR.
1033 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW BEACH 37.38N 77.64W
05/18/2018 M3.24 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA MESONET
MESONET STATION E2128, 2 WNW BEACH.
1032 AM HEAVY RAIN BON AIR 37.52N 77.56W
05/18/2018 M2.55 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA MESONET
MESONET STATION F0267, BON AIR.
1035 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW BEACH 37.34N 77.64W
05/18/2018 M3.06 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA MESONET
MESONET STATION C0609, 2 WSW BEACH.
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW BEACH 37.39N 77.65W
05/18/2018 M2.46 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA MESONET
MESONET STATION E9140, 4 WNW BEACH.
1045 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNW MIDLOTHIAN 37.55N 77.66W
05/18/2018 M6.11 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA MESONET
MESONET STATION D7888, 3 NNW MIDLOTHIAN.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW MIDLOTHIAN 37.46N 77.66W
05/18/2018 M3.78 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-CS-27, 3 SSW MIDLOTHIAN.
0756 AM HEAVY RAIN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY AIR 37.41N 77.53W
05/18/2018 M2.32 INCH CHESTERFIELD VA AWOS
AWOS STATION FCI, CHESTERFIELD COUNTY
AIRPORT.
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE HOPEWELL 37.30N 77.29W
05/18/2018 M2.72 INCH CITY OF HOPEWELL VA MESONET
MESONET STATION HPWNM, 1 NE HOPEWELL.
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E ROSLYN HILLS 37.58N 77.52W
05/18/2018 M4.16 INCH CITY OF RICHMOND VA MESONET
MESONET STATION RHMND, 2 E ROSLYN HILLS.
1029 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S LAKESIDE 37.59N 77.46W
05/18/2018 M4.24 INCH CITY OF RICHMOND VA MESONET
MESONET STATION RCHRM, 1 S LAKESIDE.
1036 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E PRINCESS ANNE 36.75N 76.03W
05/18/2018 M2.17 INCH CITY OF VIRGINIA BEVA MESONET
MESONET STATION AR126, 1 E PRINCESS ANNE.
0756 AM HEAVY RAIN OCEANA NAS 36.82N 76.03W
05/18/2018 M2.36 INCH CITY OF VIRGINIA BEVA ASOS
ASOS STATION NTU, OCEANA NAS.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE PRINCESS ANNE 36.77N 76.04W
05/18/2018 M3.39 INCH CITY OF VIRGINIA BEVA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-VBC-13, 1 NNE PRINCESS
ANNE.
1038 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE DUNNSVILLE 37.89N 76.81W
05/18/2018 M2.58 INCH ESSEX VA MESONET
MESONET STATION E7265, 2 NNE DUNNSVILLE.
1035 AM HEAVY RAIN PALMYRA RIVER GAGE ON F 37.86N 78.27W
05/18/2018 M2.84 INCH FLUVANNA VA CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION PYAV2, PALMYRA RIVER
GAGE ON FLUVANNA RIVER, NEAR PALMYRA.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN CROZIER 37.63N 77.80W
05/18/2018 M2.02 INCH GOOCHLAND VA CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CRZV2, CROZIER.
1028 AM HEAVY RAIN SABOT 37.62N 77.74W
05/18/2018 M3.00 INCH GOOCHLAND VA MESONET
MESONET STATION E8514, SABOT.
1028 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW GOODALL 37.81N 77.64W
05/18/2018 M2.41 INCH HANOVER VA MESONET
MESONET STATION E1895, 1 NNW GOODALL.
1035 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E BEAVERDAM 37.94N 77.63W
05/18/2018 M2.28 INCH HANOVER VA MESONET
MESONET STATION D9354, 1 E BEAVERDAM.
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN ASHLAND 37.75N 77.48W
05/18/2018 M3.48 INCH HANOVER VA MESONET
MESONET STATION AS799, ASHLAND.
0754 AM HEAVY RAIN HANOVER COUNTY MUNICIPA 37.71N 77.44W
05/18/2018 M3.71 INCH HANOVER VA ASOS
ASOS STATION OFP, HANOVER COUNTY MUNICIPAL.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN HEWLETT 37.91N 77.59W
05/18/2018 M4.56 INCH HANOVER VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-HV-6, HEWLETT.
1029 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N HIGHLAND SPRINGS 37.59N 77.32W
05/18/2018 M5.68 INCH HANOVER VA MESONET
MESONET STATION MCHVL, 2 N HIGHLAND SPRINGS.
0715 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW GILMAN 37.82N 77.59W
05/18/2018 M3.60 INCH HANOVER VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-HV-8, 2 NNW GILMAN.
0835 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E SHORT PUMP 37.66N 77.57W
05/18/2018 M5.55 INCH HENRICO VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-HR-6, 2 E SHORT PUMP.
0925 AM HEAVY RAIN LAKESIDE 37.62N 77.47W
05/18/2018 M3.50 INCH HENRICO VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-HR-21, LAKESIDE.
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN EAST HIGHLAND PARK 37.57N 77.38W
05/18/2018 M3.68 INCH HENRICO VA MESONET
MESONET STATION RCHRV, EAST HIGHLAND PARK.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN VARINA 37.46N 77.35W
05/18/2018 M2.64 INCH HENRICO VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-HR-13, VARINA.
1035 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE SHORT PUMP 37.69N 77.59W
05/18/2018 M6.54 INCH HENRICO VA MESONET
MESONET STATION E5212, 3 NNE SHORT PUMP.
0705 AM HEAVY RAIN LAUREL 37.65N 77.50W
05/18/2018 M4.75 INCH HENRICO VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-HR-8, LAUREL.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E SHORT PUMP 37.65N 77.57W
05/18/2018 M5.39 INCH HENRICO VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-HR-20, 2 E SHORT PUMP.
1038 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW SHORT PUMP 37.63N 77.63W
05/18/2018 M5.01 INCH HENRICO VA MESONET
MESONET STATION D4934, 1 SW SHORT PUMP.
0754 AM HEAVY RAIN RICHMOND INTL AIRPORT 37.51N 77.32W
05/18/2018 M3.60 INCH HENRICO VA ASOS
ASOS STATION RIC, RICHMOND INTL AIRPORT.
1045 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E SHORT PUMP 37.66N 77.57W
05/18/2018 M5.07 INCH HENRICO VA MESONET
MESONET STATION C0630, 2 E SHORT PUMP.
1040 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE TUCKAHOE 37.60N 77.58W
05/18/2018 M4.27 INCH HENRICO VA MESONET
MESONET STATION AS694, 1 NE TUCKAHOE.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW FIVE FORKS 37.28N 76.78W
05/18/2018 M2.15 INCH JAMES CITY VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-JC-10, 2 NNW FIVE FORKS.
1031 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WNW LIGHTFOOT 37.35N 76.77W
05/18/2018 M2.00 INCH JAMES CITY VA MESONET
MESONET STATION C2450, 1 WNW LIGHTFOOT.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S ETNA MILLS 37.74N 77.27W
05/18/2018 M4.45 INCH KING WILLIAM VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-KW-2, 1 S ETNA MILLS.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE BROOK VALE 37.74N 76.42W
05/18/2018 M2.04 INCH LANCASTER VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-LN-2, 1 SSE BROOK VALE.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN VICTORIA 37.01N 78.22W
05/18/2018 M3.80 INCH LUNENBURG VA COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION VA-LB-2, VICTORIA.
1000 AM HEAVY RAIN ISLAND CREEK RESERVOIR 36.55N 78.47W
05/18/2018 M2.22 INCH MECKLENBURG VA MESONET
MESONET STATION ICRV2, ISLAND CREEK
RESERVOIR.
1020 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E CLARKSVILLE 36.62N 78.55W
05/18/2018 M3.49 INCH MECKLENBURG VA MESONET
MESONET STATION VA041, 1 E CLARKSVILLE.
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN COOPER 37.60N 76.53W
05/18/2018 M4.00 INCH MIDDLESEX VA MESONET
MESONET STATION CHRST, COOPER.
1005 AM HEAVY RAIN VA CAPE CHARLES 5 ENE 37.29N 75.93W
05/18/2018 M3.35 INCH NORTHAMPTON VA MESONET
MESONET STATION CCHV2, VA CAPE CHARLES 5
ENE.
1029 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE KENNARD 37.94N 76.74W
05/18/2018 M4.52 INCH RICHMOND VA MESONET
MESONET STATION WRNNT, 1 NNE KENNARD.
0754 AM HEAVY RAIN WAKEFIELD, VA 36.98N 77.01W
05/18/2018 M2.57 INCH SUSSEX VA ASOS
ASOS STATION AKQ, WAKEFIELD, VA.
&&