A broad area of low pressure lifted north into Tennessee. Wind shifts and boundaries north of the low helped to initiate some showers and storms across the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
A broad area of low pressure lifted north into Tennessee. Wind shifts and boundaries north of the low helped to initiate some showers and storms across the region. Precipitable water was high and storm motions relatively slow (10-15 knots). This produced showers and storms that were efficient rain producers, leading to flooding issues in training showers and storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 2:12 PM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 312 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .Short Term...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 309 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 ...Localized Heavy Rainfall Possible Again This Evening... The weakly defined warm front is now sitting across central KY and will continue to slowly lift north as the driving upper disturbance pivots into the Wabash River Valley. The warm front was essentially caused by differential heating as substantial clearing has occurred across southern and central portions of KY. As a result, 1000-1500 J/KG of CAPE have developed in a very moist airmass. Seeing a nice upward trend in shower and storm coverage over the past hour or two as a result of the increased instability and convergence along and south of the boundary. This will all lift north toward the Ohio River over the next few hours, with perhaps some more widespread clustering of storms pushing NE into the Bluegrass region toward sunset. Given a tall/skinny CAPE profile evident on soundings, precipitable water values around 1.7 inches through the column, and relatively slow storm movement heavy rainers are again a possibility this afternoon and this evening. Don't think we'll see any widespread problems, but isolated flood problems are possible where training of thunderstorms occurs, and in spots that have seen more rainfall in recent days. At this point, the best chances for the heaviest rains this evening will be east of I-65 and along and north of I-64. Coverage will be in the "numerous" range, but some spots could see localized amounts higher than 1 to 2 inches, while other spots stay mostly dry, much like we've seen over the past few days. Shortly after sunset, will to watch another area of enhanced coverage right along the western fringes of our CWA as another vort lobe associated with the parent upper low swings into the area. The same scenario will apply with this cluster, where locally heavy rainfall may be possible. Otherwise, the rest of the overnight period after Midnight should be mostly dry with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. The closed upper low centered just to our NW on Saturday morning, will then lift through the area as an open wave. This should spark additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as it does so. There is a chance that some of our SW counties could see some clearing late in the day which could bring their highs to the low 80s. Elsewhere, most everyone should stay in the upper 70s. && .Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 A cold front will slide southeastward into the Ohio Valley over the weekend and then lay out east-west and become a wavy quasi- stationary front in the region through early next week. As this front interacts with the warm, moist atmosphere behind Atlantic ridging, scattered convection, primarily diurnal, will remain in the forecast for the next several days. By Wednesday night through Thursday night we'll have slightly better chances of dry weather as a small dome of Canadian high pressure drops southward out of the Great Lakes. Temperatures won't change much from day to day in this stubborn pattern, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 A weak, but moisture laden low pressure system will pivot through the area this afternoon and tonight. Then, a stronger disturbance will rotate through on Saturday. These features will provide the focus for rounds of showers and thunderstorms through this TAF cycle. In addition, ceilings will likely range from fuel-alternate MVFR up through VFR at times. Visibilities are expected to stay VFR outside of any shower or storm, where brief IFR visibilities are possible. The best timing for afternoon/evening showers and storms will be from now until 6 or 7 PM tonight. Will keep VCSH in for much of the night, then another round of showers and storms is expected late in the TAF period on Saturday. The best timing for low ceilings will be the few hours on either side of dawn on Saturday. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && Short Term...BJS Long Term...13 Aviation...BJS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 332 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-191945- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 332 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 /232 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Numerous heavy rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Any storm will be capable of producing brief heavy rain, locally gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Heavy rainfall and locally gusty winds are possible with the strongest storms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should report any flooded roads or creeks as well as stronger wind gusts. BJS
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:32 UTC.
6 flash flood, 2 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
The Emergency Manager reported that multiple roads were closed due to high water in the eastern portion of Nicholas County including Kentucky 36, East Union Road, and Cane Run Road.
Broadcast media reported that water was flowing over Tates Creek Road and Gainesway Drive.
Broadcast media reported that water was flowing over the road near Chinoe Road and Cochran Road.
Broadcast media reported that up to a foot of water was on Romany Road.
Broadcast media reported flooding at Veterans Park. West Hickman creek was rising quickly.
The fire department reported that four apartment units were damaged due to a lightning strike.
Law enforcement reported State Road 69 was flooded near Matanzas Road. Flood waters entered 4 houses on the 1100 block of State Road 69 just south of Matanzas Road.
The fire department reported that a single family home was hit by lightning.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 746870, 746871, 746872, 746873, 746874, 746876, 746875, 746877.