Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 18, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
354 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Severe weather event getting ready to unfold across southwest
Kansas late this afternoon and evening. As of mid afternoon,
surface low pressure was centered over southeast Colorado near
KSPD. A stationary front/outflow boundary extended from the low
into west central and central Kansas. Farther south, a dryline was
becoming more pronounced from the low into the Texas Panhandle.

The atmosphere continues destabilize across the area this
afternoon per the SPC Mesoanalysis page. MUCAPE values are
increasing to 2000+ j/kg. In addition, 0-6 km shear has been
slowly ramping up to around 40 kts. A special 19z sounding from
KDDC is verifying this and is also showing a capping inversion at
700 mb which was a little more pronounced than the RAP13 soundings
were depicting it earlier today. Per recent runs of the HRRR/RAP
models, storms should develop along the front and dryline mainly
after 4 pm. Storms will initially be discreet with a greater
threat for large hail. Think there will be a window of opportunity
for a few storms developing along the old outflow boundary in
west central Kansas to become briefly tornadic given the enhanced
low level shear along and north of the boundary. The models have
been consistent in showing the storms growing upscale into a
convective line as they move out of far southwest Kansas and the
northeast Texas Panhandle early this evening with the severe
weather threat will switch from large hail to strong/damaging
winds as the storm cluster moves northeast.

Most of the thunderstorm activity will be moving out of central Kansas
around or after midnight. The HRRR has been hinting at storms redeveloping
over southwest Kansas later tonight. Not real confident this will happen
but it will have to be watched.

On Saturday the stationary front is progged to move into south central
Kansas as the remains of the upper low move out into far northwest Kansas.
A fairly cold airmass aloft related to the upper system will keep some
instability in place over the region. A stronger cold front is expected
to move southeast through western Kansas during the afternoon with
widely scattered thunderstorms developing along it. A few severe
storms could develop along the front over south central and parts
of southwest Kansas along the front, as well as some storms up along
I-70 under the colder air aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The medium range models are showing another upper low developing over
the western states early next week. This will keep the central High
Plains under a general southwesterly flow aloft pattern through mid
week. The models show subtle disturbances moving out over the region
but the strength and timing of these features is uncertain. Forecast
Builder has some slight chance to chance pops through the week
which looks good for now. An upper level ridge builds over the
central CONUS later next week which should result in daytime high
temperatures back up into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon. By late
afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms could develop initially
along an outflow boundary over west central Kansas and a dryline
over far southeast Colorado into the Texas Panhandle region.
Initially discreet storms will likely congeal into a band of
storms as they move northeast through southwest and central
Kansas. There is a heightened threat for strong/damaging wind
gusts across the area as the evening progresses, especially to the
east of Garden City and Liberal. Thunderstorms should be moving
east out of central Kansas by 06z. MVFR cigs could develop later
tonight especially from Garden City to Hays but any low cigs that
develop should diminish Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  82  51  73 /  50  20  20  10
GCK  57  78  48  71 /  40  20  10  10
EHA  56  81  47  73 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  60  82  49  74 /  30  20  20  10
HYS  61  79  51  70 /  60  20  20  10
P28  66  91  57  78 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
319 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
319 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018 /219 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon and
evening time frame along and east of dryline oriented north to
south along the Highway 83 corridor. The main threat will be large
hail up to baseball sized and damaging winds over 60 mph along
with a couple of tornados being possible. West of the dryline,
there will be significant fire weather with relative humidity
values about 17-18 percent and strong south winds gusting up to
35 mph.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Severe weather threat will return Monday through Thursday with
large hail over two inches and damaging winds over 60 mph possible
during this time. Fire weather risk will be elevated Tuesday
through Thursday west of a dryline for the western counties where
relative humidity values will be around 20 percent and increased
south winds up to 25-30 mph.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  No hazards.

* Tuesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 4PM along and east of line
through the highway 83 corridor late this afternoon and evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
551 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

KSZ086-087-182315-
Seward KS-Meade KS-
551 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEWARD AND SOUTHERN
MEADE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Forgan, or 11 miles east of Hayne, moving northeast at
35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meade, Meade State Park and Missler.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3734 10047 3722 10015 3700 10046 3700 10075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 221DEG 42KT 3705 10060

TATRO