A complex weather system set up as an area of low pressure pushed across the Tennessee Valley on Saturday, May 5, 2018. Initially, a few supercell-like thunderstorms produced large hail due to their rotation and stronger updrafts near the Virginia border.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A complex weather system set up as an area of low pressure pushed across the Tennessee Valley on Saturday, May 5, 2018. Initially, a few supercell-like thunderstorms produced large hail due to their rotation and stronger updrafts near the Virginia border. A bowing line of storms then brought damaging wind gusts into the Lake Cumberland region later in the afternoon. There were multiple reports of large hail in some of the stronger storms in southeast Kentucky, with the largest hail occurring in Harlan County near Loyall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 5, 1:00 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 200 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018 Did an update to fine tune the PoPs and Wx through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. The earlier thoughts still hold for more isolated convection in the east through late afternoon with more activity moving in from the southwest toward evening. Also updated the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1055 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018 14z sfc analysis shows a fairly broad area of low pressure slowly moving over eastern Kentucky late this morning. This resulted in morning showers and patchy fog along with overcast conditions. Now the showers have broken up and become more scattered over the JKL CWA while continuing more steady to the west along with a few embedded thunderstorms. The latest HRRR and NAM12 solutions have a lull in the activity over our area for several hours into the afternoon before the convection returns from southwest to northeast. Depending on how much instability can build we could see some strong storms with locally heavy rainfall in the eastern sections of the CWA later this afternoon given the decent mid level lapse rates and some veering winds with height in the progged soundings. Have redrawn the PoP and Wx forecast into the evening with these thoughts, and model scenarios, in mind. Did also add in the latest obs and trends to the T and Td grids where the values are about the same at each reporting site given the nearly saturated low levels. Low 60s are found to the northwest with mid to upper 60s reported in the southeast. Winds are relatively light and variable throughout the area and will remain that way - outside of any thunderstorm - into the evening. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. A ZFP update is forthcoming, as well. UPDATE Issued at 759 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018 Showers have filled in across the area, with a little thunder leftover in the far east. Have freshened up the POPs through this morning according to the latest radar and HRRR trends. This will keep likely or higher POPs going for all but the southeast through this morning, before convection fills in across the entire area into this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018 The latest surface map features a stalling cool front aligned near the I-64 corridor. Scattered showers, along with some isolated thunderstorms have been ongoing along and south of the front, with the best cluster of storms currently located across south central Kentucky. These will likely brush portions of our western CWA through dawn as they advance to the east, but should weaken somewhat as they move into our area. Aloft, a short wave trough is rotating towards the Arklatex region. A wet 24 hours will be in store for eastern Kentucky, as the short wave trough continues to the east and deepens as it moves into the central and southern Appalachians by tonight. This will allow for a developing wave of low pressure at the surface, which will pass through eastern Kentucky late tonight. Widespread showers will move into our area today, along with scattered thunderstorms at times. Model guidance suggests the potential for some isolated strong thunderstorms along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridors this afternoon, as shear increases out ahead of the approaching surface and upper level wave later today. Instability will be the main question, as clouds will be prevalent. Showers will continue into tonight as the surface and upper level wave move across our area. Thunder chances will be diminishing by early evening, with decreasing instability. Rainfall totals by Sunday morning could range in the 1 to 2 inch range. Showers will diminish from west to east Sunday morning, as the low pulls away. POP chances will then increase from the northwest late in the day, as another cold front approaches the area. Temperatures will trend towards more seasonable readings through the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018 A progressive and active pattern is expected in the long term period. The best chances of precipitation will be with two upper level short waves Sunday night into Monday and the next one Thursday. The end of the period there remains quite a bit of divergence in the model solutions leading to a lower confidence forecast by Friday. The first upper level feature on Sunday night into Monday will be accompanied by a weakening surface cold front diving south across the Ohio Valley. The GFS seems to be on the higher side of instability Monday afternoon and therefore kept afternoon thunder in the slight range at this point. These storms would not be organized due to the lack of shear withing the environment. A weak surface trough in the east will keep some convection in the forecast for Tuesday, but the lack of instability will keep this all rain showers. The best chance of the dry day for the period will be Wednesday, as weak upper level ridging develops between systems. That said, some of the soundings would suggest only a few diurnally driven cumulus clouds at best given the drier low levels. The next upper level wave and weak upper level divergence should be enough to kick off another chance of showers and mainly afternoon thunderstorms by Thursday. There is a little better shear forecast across the region which could lead to isolated more organized thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. This surface boundary will become more diffuse and linger across the Ohio Valley into Friday. This will keep chances of showers and afternoon thunderstorms going into the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018 Scattered to numerous showers, and eventual thunderstorms, will keep ceilings/visibilities generally around MVFR for much of the rest of the afternoon and evening. Pockets of IFR will develop as well during this time. Later tonight, cigs and vis will lower to IFR or worse with steadier rains as the sfc low slides past. Look for some improvement in the cigs and vis as the rain comes to an end Sunday morning from southwest to northeast. Winds will remain light and variable through the period - away from any thunderstorm. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 446 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-061200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 446 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible at times through this evening. Minor flooding of low lying will be possible at any locations that see repeated rounds of thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible at times for portions of eastern Kentucky Sunday through Monday, as well as Wednesday through Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. GEOGERIAN/DJ
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018
KYZ087-088-117-051930-
Bell-Harlan-Leslie-
250 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL HARLAN...
NORTHEASTERN BELL AND SOUTHWESTERN LESLIE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
EDT...
At 250 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stony Fork
Junction, or 10 miles northeast of Pineville, moving northeast at 15
mph.
Half inch hail is possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Loyall, Wallins Creek, Sandy Fork, Bledsoe, Coldiron, Beverly, Stony
Fork Junction, Black Snake, Field, Tacky Town, Saylor, Blanche, Cary,
Rella, Blackmont, Balkan, Warbranch, Baxter, Roark and Miracle.
LAT...LON 3679 8368 3690 8361 3691 8358 3693 8357
3694 8358 3695 8358 3694 8351 3700 8352
3701 8351 3703 8352 3688 8329 3672 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 218DEG 14KT 3682 8352
RAYSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
253 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018
KYZ115-117-051930-
Perry-Leslie-
253 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LESLIE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...
At 252 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cutshin, or 9
miles southeast of Hyden, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Pea size hail is possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Hazard, Yeaddiss, Big Fork, Cinda, Viper, Smilax, Daley, Big Rock,
Diablock, Causey, Jeff, Daisy, Cornettsville, Cutshin and Frew.
LAT...LON 3705 8333 3728 8322 3718 8302 3715 8304
3701 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 218DEG 14KT 3709 8324
RAYThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 77 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:02 UTC.
3 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Reports of quarter to tennis ball sized hail were received via social media and local Emergency Management, from northwest of Harlan to Baxter.
A citizen observed ping pong ball sized hail northeast of Elkhorn City.
Dispatch reported numerous trees down from Monticello to Barrier.
Fire rescue officials observed nickel sized hail in Corbin.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 744173, 744176, 744174, 744175.