Florida, 2018Rip Current in Florida, May 5, 2018
May 5, 2018 · NWS MLB · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Three swimmers were caught in rip currents at Cocoa Beach. One of the three swimmers was not breathing when brought to shore by life guards, and later died at a local hospital.
- Deaths
- 1
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Three swimmers were caught in rip currents at Cocoa Beach. One of the three swimmers was not breathing when brought to shore by life guards, and later died at a local hospital.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 5, 2:59 PM EST, 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 5, 2:59 PM EST, 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
359 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Focus for showers will be over the interior and western
side of the peninsula into this evening. The best chance for any
lightning should be west of Lake county until sunset where
interaction with a west coast sea breeze will occur. A few
showers may linger over the interior past sunset as steering flow
veers southerly. Model guidance indicates showers redeveloping
late tonight across Lake/Volusia counties due to influence from
upper trough digging into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mild temps
expected again in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Sunday...Lingering surface trough will diminish over the area.
Sufficient moisture will combine with better support aloft and a sea
breeze to produce a better chance for storms. Convection should
initiate across northern sections in the morning then develop
across central and southern sections during the afternoon. Storm
motion will be toward the northeast so convection will focus on
the east side of the peninsula late in the day. Max temps look
quite warm across the south half reaching the upper 80s/near 90
with mid 80s across the north due to more clouds and earlier onset
of precipitation.
Sun Night-Tue Night...Mid-upper level troughing continues across
the eastern CONUS over much of this period with occasional mid-
level impulses traversing the FL peninsula. At the surface, a weak
frontal boundary over north-central FL will move into central FL
Sun evening, then through most of the coverage warning area
overnight. Ongoing convection from deep moisture, instability,
shortwave energy aloft and boundary collisions will gradually move
toward the east coast and venture out across the coastal waters.
Precipitation will continue into late night with highest chances
near the coast and south from the Cape. Lightning, gusty winds,
and locally heavy downpours will be the main threats. The front
will wash out across south FL late in the day on Mon.
NW/N flow behind this latest boundary will quickly veer to NE during
the day on Mon with a seabreeze pushing inland. Some lingering
moisture and diurnal heating may promote an isolated shower along
the seabreeze and mainly south of Orlando as drier air will be in
place northward. A late day or early evening seabreeze collision
over the central peninsula may also ignite a shower or two; again
mainly southward. Moisture remains rather unimpressive on Tue,
though persistent onshore flow, afternoon heating, cooler air and
some energy aloft could allow for some isolated convection during
the day.
For max temps, increasing onshore flow will nudge coastal numbers
back to the L-M80s Mon-Tue. Mins generally well into the 60s inland,
and L70s along the immediate coast.
Wed-Sat (previous)...Mid level trough near the mid Atlantic Coast
will lift out to the northeast through late week, with the flow
aloft becoming flat/zonal. The weak surface trough lingering
near/offshore SEFL will dissipate, as a fairly strong Atlantic
high pressure ridge builds into Florida in its wake. Rain chances
look minimal to nil Wednesday-Thursday. Moisture and rain chances
may increase late in the week as low level flow veers more to the
SE. Max temps in the M80s along the coast and U80s inland. Mins in
the U60s to around 70F.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions forecast tonight and into Sunday morning, with
occasional IFR conditions as showers move across the area. A
thunderstorm or two is possible across the interior this afternoon,
thus have included VCTS at KLEE, but kept VCSH at all other
terminals through at least sunset. Kept prevailing VCSH at KSUA due
to possible showers developing along the coast overnight. An MVFR
deck may develop across the interior terminals and KDAB after
06/06Z. However, current confidence is too low to include this as a
TEMPO group, thus I reserved to keep a prevailing SCT015 deck.
Forecasting widespread showers to develop across the area after
06/14Z, so I have included VCSH at all terminals with BKN035 deck.
Included VCTS after 06/20Z at KMCO for possible thunderstorms and
this will probably be expanded to the coastal terminals as
steering flow will be back toward the east coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight...Surface trough oriented N/NE continues to push west
across south FL and our southern waters this afternoon. The trough
axis will stall and weaken over the FL peninsula tonight. South
southwest winds will increase near 15 knots over the offshore
waters on the east side of the axis. With seas holding near 6 ft,
will maintain a Caution for the offshore waters.
Sunday...S/SW flow will become SE 10-15 knots near the coast in
the afternoon in a sea breeze south of the Cape. A lighter E/NE
wind 5-10 knots should develop north of the Cape. Rain chances
will remain high with a good chance for storms moving offshore esp
late in the afternoon. Seas 3-5 feet.
Sun Night-Thu...Southerly flow will veer SWRLY then W/NW overnight
as a frontal boundary presses southward down the peninsula. Offshore
moving showers and storms continue Sun night. Winds quickly become
NERLY again on Mon, then veer more ERLY Wed overnight into Thu. Wind
speeds generally AOB 15 kts during this time. Seas generally in the
3-5FT range.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 84 67 85 / 20 60 30 20
MCO 70 88 67 89 / 20 60 30 10
MLB 73 89 68 86 / 20 60 50 20
VRB 72 89 69 87 / 20 60 50 20
LEE 70 87 67 89 / 30 50 20 10
SFB 70 87 68 89 / 20 60 30 10
ORL 70 88 69 89 / 20 60 30 10
FPR 71 89 67 87 / 20 60 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Kelly
MID TERM.....Sedlock
AVIATION/LONG TERM...Rodriguez
Hazardous weather outlook, May 5, 9:52 AM EST, 5 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1052 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-052300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1052 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Deep moisture overspreading the region will generate scattered to
numerous showers across the area today. Isolated thunderstorms
will also be possible, mainly across interior areas, west of I-95
this afternoon. Main threat from any storms that can develop will
be dangerous lightning strikes, brief gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.
.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate risk of rip currents will exist along the beaches of
east central Florida today. Check with ocean rescue personnel on
the latest surf conditions when arriving at the beach, and always
swim near a lifeguard.
.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Poor boating conditions continue over much of the coastal waters.
Small craft should Exercise Caution for seas building up to 6 feet
this afternoon.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
Poor boating conditions with seas up to 6 feet will continue
offshore, north of Sebastian Inlet into Sunday morning. A Moderate
risk of life-threatening rip currents will also persist through late
weekend.
Lingering deep moisture will keep rain chances high into Sunday,
with scattered thunderstorms possible into the afternoon. Main
storm threats will continue to be dangerous lightning strikes,
brief gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.
Weitlich/Sedlock
Rip Current, Brevard
- When
- May 5, 3:00 PM EST
- Where
- Brevard forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- Broadcast Media
Local media reported that three swimmers who were caught in rip currents at Cocoa Beach, just north of the International Palms Resort. Life guards were able to rescue the three people, however, one of them, a woman in her mid 40s from Oklahoma was not breathing when brought to shore. The woman was transported to a local hospital where she later died.
- Rip Current
- A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 745602.