Damaging Wind in Georgia, July 3, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
728 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will persist across the area through the work
week.  Abundant moisture will also be in place until the end of the
week and result in afternoon and evening thunderstorms. High
temperatures will run around normal through the week with seasonally
high levels of humidity which will hold low temperatures a little
above normal. Temperatures will be a little cooler Sunday and Monday
with the passage of a weak cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM: The center of expansive upper level high pressure will
retrograde from the northeast Conus to the Ohio Valley, while small
upper low will move from the Bahamas to the FL peninsula by the end
of the period. The result will be a continuation, but slight
increase in the magnitude of deep easterly flow across our area.

Despite the very unstable atmosphere across the area, convection has
been limited in coverage. A weak boundary has helped strong to
severe storms form over the Lakelands. Isolated cells continue
across the Smokies. Expect convection to diminish through the
evening, but strong to severe storms will remain possible across the
Lakelands. Min temps tonight will remain almost 5 degrees above
climo.

Diminishing thickness and continued/somewhat stronger easterly flow
on Wed will result in what one would normally expect from easterly
flow: cooler temps, as most locations should see max temps 2-3
degrees cooler than today's readings. As such, instability is
forecast to be quite a bit less on Wed. As such, most guidance
sources produce very little in the way of convection over the area
until toward tomorrow evening, when there are signals that a sea
breeze feature may encroach from the east. As such, 20-30 pops are
advertised, mainly across the southern half of the area, but not
reaching a nadir until early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tue: Easterly low-level flow will continue Wed night and
Thu as expansive upper ridge remains the dominant feature for much of
the CONUS. By the end of Thursday, however, sfc/upper low pressure
will move across the southern Hudson Bay region. In response, flow
will veer toward the south and heights will begin to fall over the
Eastern Seaboard. The trailing cold front will move south of the Ohio
River Friday, and into our area Saturday, eventually ushering in
cooler and drier high pressure.

Thunder chances are mainly diurnal, though as the easterly wave
drifts by to our south Wednesday night, models do initiate some
discrete storms nocturnally across the Carolinas. A small PoP is
retained Thursday night as some guidance retains some showers in the
upslope flow. PoPs ramp up gradually Friday into Saturday morning as
the front encroaches. The GFS and Canadian are a bit faster in
bringing the front south through the area than is the EC; have hung
on to PoPs through the day as a nod to the latter, with the frontal
forcing weak and a slower fropa seeming more likely. For Thursday and
Friday, steering flow will be minimal, and DCAPEs from the NAM and
GFS suggest isolated severe downbursts could occur from the strongest
storms. PWATs are not especially high so excessive rainfall would
likely be isolated during these times as well. Moisture convergence
near the front does make heavy rain perhaps our most significant
threat with the front Saturday.

Thicknesses remain elevated until the front arrives, though the
easterly fetch brings some cloud cover which keeps max temps near
normal on Thursday. These tick slightly upward again on Friday.  We
will see more noticeable relief on Saturday, especially if the faster
GFS verifies. However, being conservative and assuming the front
doesn't really settle in here until late in the day at the earliest,
max temps still are likely to be within a category of normal. Heat
index is not expected to be a problem during the short range period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Tuesday: Beginning Saturday evening.
The weak cold front should be slowly moving south across our area
Saturday evening and into the night. The front is expected to stall
out just south of our area...over south Georgia and the southern tip
of SC. The front is expected to slowly dissipate going into the
first half of next week. With the center of surface high pressure
over the mid Atlantic states, a cool air wedge would set up with
drier air deeper south across SC while over in TN more humid. The
GFS has this wedge over the Carolinas until Tuesday The EC maintains
the dry air through the end of the current forecast. As the 500mb
trough moves east over the Atlantic, the mid nation ridge noses east
during the first half of the week.High temps at least 5 degrees
below normal Sunday then recovering to around normal Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection has dissipated for all but the
area south of KAND. Therefore, have removed from all TAFs this
evening. Expect the Cumulus to diminish as well with only come
lingering convective debris overnight for most locations. Should see
a recurrence of mtn valley fog and low stratus, primarily in the
valleys S and W of KAVL. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail
through the period. There is a chance of convection, but chance too
low and timing uncertain for all but late afternoon at KAND, and
during the evening at KCLT. ENE wind will diminish this evening then
pick back up and may become gusty with mixing Wednesday. KAVL the
exception with light wind overnight, N wind after daybreak and SE
wind during the afternoon.

Outlook: Seasonal summertime convective activity will prevail
throughout the week. MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible each
morning as a moist, easterly flow from the Atlantic continues
underneath a subtropical ridge. Greater coverage of thunderstorms is
likely by Saturday as a cold front arrives from the north.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1128 AM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-041530-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
1128 AM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. Any
thunderstorms will produce occasional cloud-to-ground lightning,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours. One or two could be severe,
producing damaging wind gusts or hail as large as quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-041530-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1128 AM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Heat Index values are forecast to range from 100 to 105 across much
of the Piedmont and foothills from noon to around 7 pm this evening.

In addition to the heat, scattered thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms will produce occasional
cloud-to- ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. One or
two could be severe, producing damaging wind gusts or hail as large
as quarters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
655 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

SCZ011-019-032330-
Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
655 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 655 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Greenwood, or near Cokesbury, moving southwest at 25
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Abbeville, Greenwood, Cokesbury, Hodges, Lake Greenwood and Promised
Land.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3406 8232 3425 8241 3436 8218 3433 8217
      3433 8215 3432 8213 3431 8212 3431 8211
      3430 8208 3429 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 057DEG 24KT 3429 8219

CSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

SCZ011-040015-
Abbeville SC-
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
WESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 744 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles southwest of Abbeville, or 4 miles
northeast of Calhoun Falls, moving southwest at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Calhoun Falls and Lake Russell.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8264 3409 8264 3410 8266 3413 8267
      3415 8271 3422 8248 3407 8231 3406 8236
      3406 8244 3408 8248 3407 8250 3407 8253
      3402 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 064DEG 24KT 3412 8253

CSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

SCZ019-040015-
Greenwood SC-
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING LINGERING ATOP
GREENWOOD COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 749 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong storms with intense
lightning 5 miles southeast of Greenwood, moving west at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Cokesbury, Ninety Six Historic Site, Hodges, Troy, Ninety
Six, Promised Land, Bradley, Coronaca and Kirksey.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8233 3411 8226 3416 8224 3422 8225
      3428 8230 3430 8211 3403 8195 3400 8223
      3401 8223 3402 8225 3399 8228 3399 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 080DEG 19KT 3412 8211

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NINETY SIX              34.18N 82.02W
07/03/2018                   GREENWOOD          SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED TREES DOWN IN NINETY-SIX.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
803 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

GAZ029-040045-
Elbert GA-
803 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT ELBERT
COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 802 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong storms with
intense lightning 13 miles east of Elberton, or near Thurman Lake,
moving southwest at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Elberton, Nancy Hart State Park, Bobby Brown State Park, Middleton,
Lake Strom Thurmond, Lake Russell, Fortsonia, Sweet City and Rice
Town.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8261 3397 8264 3399 8265 3397 8278
      3399 8283 3398 8286 3401 8291 3401 8294
      3403 8294 3405 8299 3409 8303 3413 8304
      3416 8272 3409 8264 3407 8265 3403 8260
      3397 8257 3396 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 061DEG 21KT 3405 8264

CSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
842 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

GAZ029-SCZ011-040130-
Elbert GA-Abbeville SC-
842 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...STORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL LINGER
ACROSS ELBERT AND SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 841 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms with intense
lightning and torrential rainfall from Elberton to Abbeville,
moving west at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Abbeville, Elberton, Calhoun Falls, Bowman, Lowndesville, Lake Strom
Thurmond, Russell State Park, Nancy Hart State Park, Middleton and
Lake Russell.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8294 3403 8294 3410 8304 3411 8303
      3418 8310 3423 8307 3423 8299 3421 8298
      3423 8295 3422 8274 3421 8274 3422 8225
      3415 8224 3406 8233 3406 8244 3408 8248
      3407 8253 3401 8260 3400 8259 3397 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 093DEG 30KT 3412 8252

CSH