Winter Storm in Connecticut, January 4, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1258 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A significant winter storm will bring heavy snow, strong to
damaging winds and coastal flooding Thursday into Thursday
night. Exact snow amounts and precise location of the rain-snow
line will be dependent on how close the storm tracks to New
England. Another blast of arctic air will follow for Friday and
the weekend. Another storm may affect us early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

Our storm system is really ramping up overnight as water vapor
imagery show negatively tiled upper level trough. GOES-16
Satellite also show classic leaf to open comma stage off the
Carolina coast as this system undergoes cyclogenesis. In fact,
over the past hour this system has dropped around 6-8 mb per
RAP13 data. Lots of lightning near the center of the storm near
the dry slot as this system continues to deepen. Overall this an
anomolous storm with impacts felt up and down the Eastern Sea
board.

Locally, mid and upper level flow continues to be out the
southwest, but VWPs downstream show that conditions will be
changing here over the next few hours as winds begin to turn
more to the east/northeast. All is quiet on the radar, but light
radar echoes moving into NYC and up towards Long Island. Heavier
snow remains off the NJ coastline. Expect light snow to begin
within the next 2-3 hours over CT and then eventually expanding
across the rest of the area this morning.

Still fine tuning this forecast as we get more HRRR and RAP
data, but one area of concern is the upper Cape, which at first
glance may need to have their amounts increased. More info
later.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
*/ Highlights...

 - Moderate to heavy snow, especially E MA and N RI
 - Blizzard conditions along the E/SE MA and RI coastlines
 - Strong to damaging winds, downed trees, limbs, powerlines
 - Coastal flooding issues for the E MA coastline

*/ Summary...

Explosive, potent winter storm system taking aim on New England
bringing multiple hazards: moderate to heavy snow, low visibility,
strong to damaging winds, coastal flooding, and hazardous seas.

Travel and economic impacts Thursday into Friday with accumulating
snow and white-out conditions. Expect downed trees, tree branches,
powerlines and thus power outages, scattered to widespread with winds.
Flooding of coastal infrastructure, wave action and beach erosion
with astronomically high tides and expected 2 to 3 foot surge more
so with onshore flow. Damage to docks and marinas especially with
the presence of ice.

*/ Overview...

Multiple pieces of energy presently phasing and exploding across FL
beneath a negatively tilting H5 trof axis. Strengthening cyclonic
motions with stratospheric-tropospheric coupling, rapid cyclogenesis
in response to the thermal wind imbalance, H3 jet couplet (RRQ/LFQ)
amplifying in response, a massive bombing surface low taking shape
up the E coast, lowering down to around 950 mb offshore of New England
as it quickly races NNE into SE Canada Thursday morning exiting
Thursday night.

Robust warm-moist integrated water vapor transport cyclonically trowaling
further back along the 295-305K surfaces with beneath the H2-3 jet
coupling and strong divergence / QG-forcing. This as colder air
digs rearward along with the dynamic tropopause noted by potential
vorticity of around 2 PVU and lower potential temperatures. Looking
at strong mid-level SW-NE curving frontogenetical / deformational
banding on the back side of the stacking low column with the clash
of airmasses / low-mid level convergent winds, tightening over time
with storm passage and given the isallobaric / gradient wind response.
Keying especially upon the H85-7 low, coincident potent lift / omega
through the snow growth region, and H85 -5C isotherm. The intense
lift along the banding signatures, monitoring dynamic cooling along
with a neighboring S/E intrusion of a H95-85 warm layer, evaluating
for both the rain / snow / wintry mix line along with the mid-level
lapse rates, looking for any signs of upright convection potential
along with potential instability as thetaE decreases with height.

A lot at play, precipitation dividing lines at work especially around
Cape Cod, banding signatures clearly evident, lift and forcing notably
explosive. Model differences noted between the hydro and non-hydrostatic,
even with the latest 18z guidance wavering. Mass fiends and coincident
dynamics slightly juxtaposed among the guidance, but there is consensus
on how unprecedented this system is, its dynamics, associated lift /
omega / banding signatures while subtly off from one another roughly
W to E. Incredibly difficult to forecast, quite the headache. Any
tiny shift on the order of 10 miles can make all the difference in
snow amounts, main threats, impacts.

Preference to the blend of the non-hydrostatic / high-res guidance.
Will breakdown the details below providing forecast thinking, high-
lighting areas at greatest risk with respect to specific hazard types.
Guidance continuing to wobble, perhaps due to latent heat / convective
feedback issues.

Final note, feel snow amounts are overshadowing the bigger impacts
to this system. Incredible to say the least, when is the last time
we saw such a bombing storm, the likes of which CIPS Analogs poorly
score. Strong to damaging winds along with coastal flood impacts
are more than likely to be the bigger players, yielding damage to
infrastructure along with scattered to widespread power outages as
colder air surges in from the W as we go into the late week period.

*/ Moderate to Heavy Snow...

Moderate to heavy snow banding expected, yet uncertain as to exactly
where given subtle spread of mass fields associated with the H85-7
low / H85 -5C isotherm within hydro and non-hydrostatic models. This
lends to low forecast confidence. Just a shift on the order of 10
to 50 miles can make a considerable difference of outcomes as there
is an expectation of multiple snow bands and likely shadow areas
in between. Potential red flags of drier air working in within the
dendritic growth zone as well as H95-85 warm nose intruding, however
it's unclear on the motions and clash of the CCB and WCB over S New
England as the low deepens as it spins by.

Certain on the immense lift within the atmosphere, contributions to
dynamic cooling, 2-3"/hr snowfall rates, perhaps higher in spots,
and quarter mile visibilities / white-out conditions, suggested by
SREF probabilities. But exactly where, a challenge to determine.
From a consensus of forecast guidance with a nod to probabilistics,
HREF, and CIPS analogs, keying in on E/SE MA and RI with the highest
snowfall amounts of around 12 to 14 inches over E interior MA and
N RI, a general 8 to 12 inches elsewhere with 6 to 9 out into the
CT River Valley. Impacts beginning towards Thursday morning into
evening.

A coastal front along the SE coast, expected to see a wintry mix,
some parts all rain, that complicates the forecast for the SE coast,
Cape and Islands. Believe it'll immediately go to a heavy snow with
instant accumulation as the storm begins to lift out, winds becoming
W racing colder air E. When all is said and done, the Upper Cape is
forecast to see warning level snows with more advisory level snows
out towards the Outer Cape and perhaps across Marthas Vineyard.

As to snow to liquid ratios, higher N/W, light and fluffy, greater
chance of blowing and drifting, especially as the winds turn westerly
with cold air advection proceeding. S/E lower, heavy and pasty. Keeping
in mind the coastal front, propensity of momentum transfer to the
surface greater on the S/E side, snow will exacerbate downing of tree,
tree limbs, and powerlines. As colder air surges in from the W, the
storm lifting out, any lingering snow likely to be light and fluffy
with 15:1 to 20:1 snow to liquid ratios.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS extended along the coastline where there is a
greater likelihood of verification with heavy snow forecast in
proximity to the coastal front along which winds should exceed
blizzard warning criteria. White out conditions. Downgraded over
the Cape and Marthas Vineyard given the intrusion of warmer air,
snow moving in late as winds turn out of the W and colder air surges
E, expecting a brief period of white out conditions and quickly
accumulating snows on the order of 1 to 2 hours, but not meeting
the 3 hour blizzard criteria. These can change, especially so
if forecast guidance were to shift the positioning of CCB / WCB
motions. As we've seen, latest forecast runs have wobbled W to E.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS over the reminder of S New England including
W MA. While winds may be strong over E-interior MA and interior
RI near the coastal front, thinking that our wind gusts are perhaps
too broad and that blizzard criteria will be hard to meet. Can't
rule out white out conditions for a prolonged period of time but
not confident with respect to winds meeting criteria. Will allow
layer shifts to look at it more closely. Perhaps with expected
blowing snow as winds increase out of the W, the storm lifting
away, there's the possibility of blizzard criteria. Again, these
headlines may change.

*/ Strong to Damaging Winds...

Strong gradient / isallobaric response to the winds. Unprecedented
low pressure center falling rapidly down to 950 mb over the Gulf
of ME. Pressure falls as high as 6-7 mb/hr.

Winds picking up Thursday morning out of the NE. Again, a nod to
the coastal front, mixing down of winds will be difficult initially
with the shallow cold layer on the N/W side of the front, easier
S/E. Strongest winds initially confined to SE coastal MA. Looking
at wind gusts as high as 70 mph.

Challenge is the exact location of the coastal front, with any wobble
will adjust the ability for faster momentum aloft to mix down to the
surface. Feel that perhaps our wind gusts are too broad along the
coastal front, that there will be cutoff to the immediate E of the
coastal front. Given how difficult it is to verify blizzard warnings,
held them to the S/E coastline where the coastal front is expected
to be in close proximity.

As colder air pushes in from the W, lapse rates steepening, the storm
peeling off, that will be the time in where widespread strong to
damaging over all of S New England is more likely to occur Thursday
afternoon into the overnight period as strong northerly winds turn
out of the W going afternoon into evening.

*/ Coastal Flooding...

Please see the coastal flooding section below.

*/ Hazardous Seas...

Please see the marine section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

* Dangerously cold wind chills Friday into Saturday night
* Another storm may bring rain/snow/mixed precip Mon into Tue with
  moderating temps
* Turning much colder next Wed

Friday through Sunday...

Brutal cold airmass by SNE standards moves into the region as deep
vortex settles over New Eng. Core of coldest air Fri night into Sat
night, moving out Sun with slowly moderating temps. 925 mb temps
bottom out around -25C which is extreme for SNE. The bitter cold
will be accompanied by very strong winds Fri into Sat with gradual
diminishing trend Sat night into Sun. Soundings support gusts to 40-
50 mph Fri into Fri night with gusts still up to 30-40 mph Sat. In
addition to wind chill headlines, wind advisories may be needed.
Mainly dry weather expected with exception of a few ocean effect
flurries on the outer Cape.

Highlights of the cold

* Fri...Wind chills -5 to -20 across much of the region
* Fri night...Lows zero to 10 below with wind chills -20 to -35
* Sat...Highs zero to 10 above with wind chills recovering -5 to -20
* Sat night...Lows zero to 15 below with wind chills -15 to -30

Monday-Tuesday...

Next piece of shortwave energy approaches from the SW with guidance
indicating another storm lifting north across the region. Thermal
profiles are problematic suggesting more ptype issues with rain more
likely in the coastal plain.

Wednesday...Another arctic blast expected although not as bad as
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
  Low - less than 30 percent.
  Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
  High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...

06Z Update...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence on
exact timing.

VFR conditions will fall to IFR from southeast to northwest
around 08-12z. IFR/LIFR in snow is likely along most terminals
between 12-21z, except a wintry mix or rain across Cape/Islands.
North winds will strengthen this morning with strongest gusts
along eastern MA and RI (gusts 30-45 kts) and gusts 50-60 kt
Cape Cod, Islands and Cape Ann. During Thu morning into Thu
afternoon, potential for a period of LLWS with N winds 45-65 kts
at 2kft. Blowing and drifting snow will impact area runways
tonight and may produce locally reduced vsbys, otherwise
conditions improve to VFR.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Impacts to the morning
push are likely. Evening push may be impacted.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Impacts to the morning
push are likely.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...High confidence.

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts to
45 kt.

Saturday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHSN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN,
chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...

Dangerously high seas and storm force wind gusts expected
Thursday into Thursday night.

Low pressure will undergo rapid intensification as it passes
a little east of the Benchmark Thursday afternoon. This will
result in northeast wind gusts shifting to the northwest during
the afternoon with gusts between 50 and 60 knots. This will
allow seas across the outer eastern coastal waters to build to
20-25 and 15 to 20 feet across Massachusetts Bay and just off
Cape Ann. Notably, these seas will likely build very rapidly
during mid to late Thursday morning.

Heavy freezing spray is expected with pockets of extreme freezing
spray possible in some near shore waters right behind this
system late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Freezing
Spray Warnings have been issued for near shore coastal waters
for Thursday and a Freezing Spray Watch is now in effect for the
rest of the waters, except Boston Harbor, for Thursday night
through Friday. Those warnings will probably need to be extended
into the weekend.

This is a dangerous and potentially life threatening situation for
mariners. Mariners should continue to monitor the latest
weather forecasts. Mariners should consider remaining in port
through at least Thursday and possibly longer due to the extreme
freezing spray potential.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday through Friday Night: NW gale force winds are expected
with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas will remain rough up to 15 ft
across the outer coastal waters. Freezing spray will remain a
significant issue into the first half of the weekend. There will
be widely scattered snow showers with areas of visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Saturday: Strong NW winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas 10
to 13 ft over the outer coastal waters. There will continue to
be a risk of heavy freezing spray. Slight chance of snow
showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray,
slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas near 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain and areas of fog
late with local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
5 PM update...

Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect. We have not made any
significant changes from our earlier issuance. We are still
anticipating a widespread moderate event with pockets of major
coastal flooding along east and northeast facing shorelines
south of Boston.

This event will likely produce fairly extensive inundation given
the expected high water levels. Some damage to very vulnerable
structures is likely from wave action on top of the high water
levels. The rapid intensification expected with this storm is
alarming as well as having strong winds coincide fairly closely
with the time of the high tide. We see two factors that may
temper this event from being truly destructive. One is that it
looks as though the wind will be mainly from the NNE or perhaps
even N at the time of the high tide, limiting the onshore
component for some of the coastline. The second factor is that
this storm is very progressive and so there is limited duration
to fully develop the seas, although we expect rapid building of
seas nevertheless during mid morning into early afternoon. We
will need to monitor these two factors closely. Keep in mind
that there is always some uncertainty with these events, and a
wind direction change of just 20 to 30 degrees further from the
east could make a significant difference.

Recapping some highlights, we are starting at a very high
astronomical tide, 12.1 feet MLLW in Boston and 4.2 feet MLLW in
Nantucket, and this storm will intensify extremely rapidly with
very strong north northeast winds gusting to 60 mph or higher
along much of the coastline by the time of high tide. We are
still predicting a storm surge of 2 to 2.5 feet north of Boston
and 2.5 to 3 feet south of Boston along east and north facing
shorelines. Waves will be building rapidly during the day and
will probably have built to around 15 feet by the time of the
high tide off Cape Ann and across Massachusetts Bay and to 20
feet just east of Cape Cod and Nantucket. We continue to have
the additional concern of chunks of sea ice that may be washed
onshore and exacerbate damage in some spots along the coast.

We think the coastal flooding along vulnerable shore roads and
in vulnerable basements will be widespread and could have
pockets of inundation up to 6 feet in low lying areas. Waves on
top of the very high water levels will likely damage vulnerable
structures such as decks, docks, beach access stairs, parking
lots, etc. along the shoreline. Some homes and businesses,
especially along the Plymouth County coast, may be damaged by
the combination of high water and wave action. Still another
potential issue is that the cold temperatures will result in
freezing spray on some structures along the exposed shoreline
from Salisbury to Plymouth. More widespread damage of homes and
businesses is possible if waves should build several feet higher
than currently forecast or the wind should hold onto a more
easterly component through the time of high tide.

The water will probably be very slow to recede in some spots,
especially with some drains clogged with snow and ice. The
standing water will freeze and may be in place for an extended
time.

There may be some minor impacts lingering along Cape Cod Bay
and Nantucket for the Thursday night high tide but for the most
part this is a one tide cycle storm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The past six days were cold, but not cold enough for a record.
Frigid temperatures relax today. There is the potential for
record cold again this weekend.

Average temp for 12/28/2017 to 1/02/2018
BOS   9.2   record  1.6 from 12/29/1917 to 1/03/1918
BDL   6.2   record -2.2 from 12/29/1917 to 1/03/1918
PVD  10.8   record  1.9 from 12/29/1917 to 1/03/1918
ORH   4.3   record  0.2 from 12/29/1917 to 1/03/1918

Record Minimum High (Low Max) Temperatures for Friday 1/5:

BOS  14/1884
BDL  18/1976
PVD  20/1976
ORH  14/1904, 1896
MQE  10/1904

Record Minimum High (Low Max) and Record Maximum Lows (Low Min)
for Saturday 1/6:

      Max           Min

BOS   7/1896      -10/1896
BDL   9/1912       -6/1976
PVD  11/1912        1/1996
ORH   6/1896      -12/1896
MQE   3/1896      -14/1896

Record Minimum High (Low Max) and Record Maximum Lows (Low Min)
for Sunday 1/7:

      Max           Min

BOS   12/1912     -2/1896
BDL   13/1996      1/1912
PVD   12/1912     -1/1912
ORH   11/1973     -5/1942
MQE    7/1912     -7/1896

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Blizzard Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for MAZ007-015-016-018>021.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>006-
     008>014-017-026.
     High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday
     for MAZ022>024.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Friday for MAZ022-023.
RI...Blizzard Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for RIZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>006.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from this afternoon through Friday
     evening for ANZ231-232-250-251-254>256.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM
     EST Friday for ANZ233>235-237.
     Storm Warning from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ230.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM
     EST Friday for ANZ236.
     Storm Warning from noon today to 8 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...KJC/Dunten/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Sipprell/NMB
MARINE...KJC/Sipprell/Thompson
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>014-017-026-RIZ001>006-042300-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, northern Rhode
Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Friday into Saturday night...
Another blast of bitter cold air is expected and wind chill
headlines will be needed. Wind advisories may also be needed.

Through the weekend...The prolonged bitter cold brings the chance
for isolated freeze-up ice jams within interior southern New England.
Freeze-up ice jams can produce flooding upriver of the ice jam
location. Sea ice formation is also likely on harbors, bays, and
inlets.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ007-015-016-019-042300-
Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts,
northeastern Massachusetts and southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Blizzard Warning.
   Coastal Flood Warning.

Friday into Saturday night...
Another blast of bitter cold air is expected and wind chill
headlines will be needed. Wind advisories may also be needed.

Through the weekend...The prolonged bitter cold brings the chance
for isolated freeze-up ice jams within interior southern New England.
Freeze-up ice jams can produce flooding upriver of the ice jam
location. Sea ice formation is also likely on harbors, bays, and
inlets.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ022-023-042300-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Storm Warning.
   Coastal Flood Warning.

Friday into Saturday night...
Another blast of bitter cold air is expected and wind chill
headlines will be needed. Wind advisories may also be needed.

Through the weekend...The prolonged bitter cold brings the chance
for isolated freeze-up ice jams within interior southern New England.
Freeze-up ice jams can produce flooding upriver of the ice jam
location. Sea ice formation is also likely on harbors, bays, and
inlets.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ018-020-021-RIZ007-008-042300-
Western Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Newport RI-Block Island RI-
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts
and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Blizzard Warning.

Friday into Saturday night...
Another blast of bitter cold air is expected and wind chill
headlines will be needed. Wind advisories may also be needed.

Through the weekend...The prolonged bitter cold brings the chance
for isolated freeze-up ice jams within interior southern New England.
Freeze-up ice jams can produce flooding upriver of the ice jam
location. Sea ice formation is also likely on harbors, bays, and
inlets.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ024-042300-
Nantucket MA-
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Coastal Flood Warning.

Late Thursday into Thursday evening...
Rain will change to a period of brief heavy snow with minor
accumulations. There is a low risk for 3 inches of snow which would
warrant a winter weather advisory.

Friday into Saturday night...
Another blast of bitter cold air is expected and wind chill
headlines will be needed. Wind advisories may also be needed.

Through the weekend...The prolonged bitter cold brings the chance
for isolated freeze-up ice jams within interior southern New England.
Freeze-up ice jams can produce flooding upriver of the ice jam
location. Sea ice formation is also likely on harbors, bays, and
inlets.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231-232-250-251-254>256-042300-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.
   Heavy Freezing Spray Watch.

Thursday night through Saturday night...

Periods of moderate to heavy freezing spray are likely. Freezing
Spray Advisories and Warnings are likely. The prolonged bitter cold
is favorable for sea ice formation on harbors, bays, and inlets.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ233>235-237-042300-
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.
   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

Thursday night through Saturday night...

Periods of moderate to heavy freezing spray are likely. Freezing
Spray Advisories and Warnings are likely. The prolonged bitter cold
is favorable for sea ice formation on harbors, bays, and inlets.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ236-042300-
Narragansett Bay-
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.
   Storm Warning.

Thursday night through Saturday night...

Periods of moderate to heavy freezing spray are likely. Freezing
Spray Advisories and Warnings are likely. The prolonged bitter cold
is favorable for sea ice formation on harbors, bays, and inlets.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-042300-
Boston Harbor-
547 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

Thursday night through Saturday night...

Periods of moderate to heavy freezing spray are likely. Freezing
Spray Advisories and Warnings are likely. The prolonged bitter cold
is favorable for sea ice formation on harbors, bays, and inlets.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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@NWSBoston