A trough embedded in a northwest flow aloft brushed the northwestern Colorado mountains and produced significant to locally heavy snowfall.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A trough embedded in a northwest flow aloft brushed the northwestern Colorado mountains and produced significant to locally heavy snowfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 2, 4:10 AM MST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO 410 AM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 410 AM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 Northwest flow continued across eastern Utah and northwest Colorado early this morning. IR satellite and surface observations showed more mid-level cloudiness than seen last night, though automated sensors across the area were not reporting any snow and live webcam from Steamboat Ski also indicated snow had ceased for the time being. Models indicated the next modest surge of moisture will arrive over Colorado's northern mountains late this morning causing showers to redevelop over the Elkhead and Park Ranges primarily. Snow activity was shown to increase this afternoon while spreading to the Flat Tops, Gore and Sawatch Ranges during the afternoon. Not much dynamic lift indicated during this period so snow production largely due to orographic lift. 7H warm air advection (WAA) was indicated to persist which should hinder snowfall to some degree. This appeared to be borne out by model accumulated snow forecast which limited accumulations to 2 inches or less today. Light snow should continue into the evening over the northern Colorado mountains and portions of the north-central mountains. During the latter part of the night a fast moving short-wave trough will sweep over northern Colorado. Moisture levels ahead of the trough jump to near 4 g/kg at the 7H level while WAA ceases and light cold air advection sets in. Combined with continued favorable orographics, this feature should bring more significant snowfall rates than have been seen thus far during this northwest flow regime. Low end advisory criteria snowfall is possible for the Elkhead and Park Mountains from late tonight into Saturday, but not ready to hoist highlights just yet as there remains some uncertainty as to how well models are handling moisture advection. All models indicated snowfall will continue into Saturday afternoon, though moisture levels were indicated to fall in the wake of the trough passage. Concurrently, WAA redevelops which, when combined with reduced moisture, should result in greatly reduced snowfall rates. Temperatures today and Saturday will continue to run above normal and not significantly different from what has been recorded over the past couple of days. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 Northwesterly flow will continue to plague the forecast area on Sunday and into the new work week as a few other disturbances drag into the region. Extended models differ in the intensity of these systems on Sunday and then again on Monday night into Tuesday. The track of the Monday night/Tuesday storm has shifted from earlier model runs with the latest solutions showing a broader shortwave trough drop into eastern Utah and western Colorado. If this pans out, then perhaps we can finally see some better coverage of precipitation across the area. We'll have to continue to monitor the next few runs for any other shifts in the track. Regardless, we will see northwesterly flow dominate the synoptic pattern over our region as the ridge of high pressure remains amplified off the west coast through the end of next week. Temperatures will continue to run above seasonal norms. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 410 AM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 Moisture in northwest flow is expected to continue to bring light snow to the northern Colorado mountains through the next 24 hours. This activity poses a minor threat of snow showers at KHDN after 18Z with a good chance for brief light snow after 06Z/Saturday. Snow may result in brief MVFR visibility along with CIGS below ILS breakpoints. Meanwhile, KRIL, KEGE, and KASE are likely to experience prolonged periods where CIGS are below ILS breakpoints after 02Z/Saturday, but there is only a small chance for snowfall. Elsewhere, VFR conditions with CIGS above ILS breakpoints are expected to persist at the remaining TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Winds will be below 10 knots so unlikely to negatively impact airport operations today or tonight. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...MMS AVIATION...NL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO 434 AM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-031145- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 434 AM MST Fri Feb 2 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Snow is expected to redevelop over the northern, and portions of Colorado's central mountains late this morning, becoming scattered in coverage this afternoon and evening. A disturbance in northwest flow will result in widespread snow over the Elkhead, Park, Gore, Sawatch and Flat Top Mountains late tonight. Accumulations are expected to range from 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts over the higher elevations by sunrise Saturday. Accumulations for Colorado's central mountains will be even lighter with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Periods of snow will continue off and on across Colorado's northern and central mountain ranges during the remainder of the week, through the weekend and into early next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall totals ranged from 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts of 13 and 15 inches measured at the Whiskey Park and Tower SNOTEL sites, respectively.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 731050.