Arctic high pressure built over the Yukon up to 1042 MB by the morning of 2/2. At the same time, a moderate low 998 MB moved to off Sitka Sound resulting in very strong pressure differences across northern SE Alaska through 2/4.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
Arctic high pressure built over the Yukon up to 1042 MB by the morning of 2/2. At the same time, a moderate low 998 MB moved to off Sitka Sound resulting in very strong pressure differences across northern SE Alaska through 2/4. Winds to 75 MPH were observed but the damage was minimal. Ferry service for Lynn Canal was disrupted for a few days due to large wind waves and freezing spray.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 2, 5:01 AM AKST, 1 hour 14 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
501 AM AKST Fri Feb 2 2018
.SHORT TERM...Complex and high impact weather scenario ongoing
across SE Alaska early this morning. 1040 mb surface high settling
over the Yukon with surface and IR satellite indicating temps well
into the -40s F. A weak surface trough is located over the
southern Panhandle. The gradient between these two features is
quite impressive as evidenced by the PAGY to PAJN gradient peaking
around 12.5 mb overnight. As a result, have seen winds in Lynn
Canal sustained around 55 kt with hurricane force gusts. Gusts to
65kt have also been noted out of Cross Sound where max gales are
expected through this morning. The northerly pressure gradient
will weaken somewhat later today and tonight as the low to the
south slides into BC and the surface high shifts SE. Northern
stream shortwave diving southward this morning over NW Canada will
serve to deepen the cold air advection over the northern Panhandle
tonight. This feature, combined with a more NE gradient
orientation will favor mountain wave activity near downtown Juneau
and Douglas as well as strong katabatic flow near Skagway.
Critical level looks to be just below 500 mb by late tonight and
although there is not a true weakness in the flow, sharp turning
of the wind with height between H7 and H5 will likely be enough to
enhance the Taku Winds. Went ahead with a High Wind Warning for
Juneau/Douglas and issued a High Wind Watch for Skagway for
tonight and Saturday.
Satellite and radar continue to indicate impressive banded
precipitation over the central Panhandle early this morning. One
area of banded precip appears tied to the right entrance region of
the upper jet over BC and associated frontogenesis in the H7
layer. This band seems to be continuing to train along a Port
Alexander to Petersburg line. A second area of more convective
precip seems to be aligning with the 925 mb front and is affecting
the area from Klawock to Thorne Bay and points south. Temps are
still below freezing near Coffman Cove and Thorne Bay so most
likely these areas have seen continued significant accumulations.
Kept current winter weather statements ongoing and it does appear
that precipitation will be tapering off through the morning hours
as the core of the upper jet shifts east and the low level frontal
zone weakens. Would not be surprised to see a few snow totals
similar to the 6.5 inches Thorne Bay picked up in a few hours last
night based on the strength of the banding.
After a break in the precip tonight and Saturday, the potential
for a similar scenario looks to set up for Saturday night into
Sunday as another Pacific shortwave approaches from the southwest.
Upper confluence over BC will maintain a jet entrance region over
the southern Panhandle with the potential for yet more banded
precip, albeit this time a bit further south. For now, trended
snow amounts up a bit roughly along and south of Sumner Strait
Saturday night although still some fairly large differences
between models as to the low level thermal structure and location
of the best forcing.
.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/ The battle between the warm
and cold air masses across the panhandle continues as we remain
under the convergence zone for the northern and southern stream of
the upper level jet. The northern stream continues to send cold
air into the southern Yukon feeding continued outflow winds to
the northern panhandle (though it does weaken through the period).
Gale force winds at the start will diminish to 25 to 30 kt in Lynn
Canal and other outflow areas early in the week. Outflow expected
to continue to weaken through late next week.
Meanwhile, the southern stream is sending various low pressure
systems into the southern gulf and panhandle. However the outflow
is limiting the northern extent of these systems to the central
panhandle at most. The confidence on this becomes murky toward mid
to late week as weakening outflow may allow some of these systems
to move farther north. It is for this reason that chance pops
start showing up mid to late week for the northern panhandle.
This stalemate between the warm and cold air does not have a
clear winner at this time, though there are indications that the
southern stream may be gaining some ground toward mid next week.
Guidance is not certain on this however, as the strength of the
cold air outflow varies between the models so long range forecast
remains rather uncertain.
Favored WPC for guidance with some ECMWF and Nam for Sun and sun
night.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ023-026.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ027.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Saturday
for AKZ025.
Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ018-019-025.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ028.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ029.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for
AKZ018.
Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ018.
Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ017.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
Storm Warning for PKZ012-013.
Gale Warning for PKZ022-031-034-035-043-051.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-032-033-041-042-052-053.
&&
DEL/EAL
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Peak gusts 60 to 75 mph recorded in the South Douglas, Thane, and the Rock Dump 2/2 to 2/4. No damage was reported.
Skagway ASOS and the Marine Exchange obs observed numerous gusts 60 to 75 mph 2/3 through 2/4. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 738412, 738413.