California, 2018

High Wind in California, November 8 to 9, 2018

November 8 to 9, 2018 · NWS LOX · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Strong and gusty Santa Ana winds buffeted the mountains of Los Angeles county, including the Santa Monica mountains. North to northeast wind gusts up to 72 MPH were reported.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LOX wrote it up.

Strong and gusty Santa Ana winds buffeted the mountains of Los Angeles county, including the Santa Monica mountains. North to northeast wind gusts up to 72 MPH were reported.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 8:55 PM PST, 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 8, 8:55 PM PST, 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
855 PM PST Thu Nov 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...08/816 PM.

Strong Santa Ana winds will continue across Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties, with the peak winds of the event expected
tonight into Friday morning. Very dry and windy conditions with
high fire danger will continue through Friday evening. The winds
will begin to subside Friday night through Saturday, and will
likely increase again Sunday morning through Tuesday. Low
temperatures will fall to near or below freezing in the Antelope
Valley and interior San Luis Obispo County tonight through Sunday
morning. Highs will remain above normal through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...08/853 PM.

***UPDATE***

LAX-DAG gradient at 04Z was -6.9 mb and lowering. The NAM
continued to forecast the 12Z gradient for LAX-DAG to lower to
around -9.0 mb. These very strong offshore gradients combined
with upper level support and some cold air advection will continue
to drive strong and gusty NW winds across much of VTU/L.A.
Counties tonight. A few wind gusts over 60 mph have been noted
this evening in the mountains, with gusts for the foothills, vlys
and coastal areas from Oxnard to Malibu ranging from 35 to 45 mph.
Wind gusts for the lower elevations should increase further
overnight as the offshore gradient peaks before morning. These
winds combined with humidities in the single digits and teens will
keep the Hill and Woolsey wildfires quite active overnight with a
dangerous situation. The Hill fire will likely head to the PCH by
morning due to the persistent strong winds overnight. High Wind
Warnings and Wind Advisories will continue for most of Ventura and
Los Angeles Counties.

***From Previous Discussion***

Really no change from previous thinking in terms of the strength
and timing of the peak winds, which still looks to be overnight
tonight into early Friday. Will keep all wind advisories and
warnings in place through Friday with an earlier cut off time for
the coast as onshore trends take hold there.

Weekend forecast about the same as well. Gradients turn weakly
onshore Saturday into early Sunday before reversing again as
another trough dropping through the Great Basin will initiate
pressure rises over the interior and another push of Santa Ana
winds late Sunday into Monday. This second event is still looking
weaker than this one but probably still advisory level winds in
the usual favored areas of LA/Ventura counties. And again still
very dry so it's quite possible critical fire weather conditions
will return.

In some wind protected locations overnight temps will drop below
freezing such as interior SLO County and the Antelope Valley.
Coldest temps expected to be Saturday morning where lows near 20
are possible in the AV and mid to upper 20s across interior SLO.
With another burst of offshore flow coming next week expect chilly
overnight temps to continue in these same areas.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...08/112 PM.

The peak of the second Santa Ana event is expected to be Monday
morning. The ridge aloft will likely result in this being a
somewhat warmer Santa Ana than the current one but still some
uncertainty on how warm. Thicknesses actually remain fairly flat
through the period but lower level temps rise a few degrees
through mid week so odds favor a warm period but not threatening
any records. Some cooling expected by Thu for coast/valleys as
gradients start trending (though not actually turning) onshore.

&&

.AVIATION...08/2350Z.

At 2327Z, the marine layer depth was around 400 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 1500 feet with a
temperature of about 22 degrees Celsius.

Hi confidence in the 00Z TAFs with VFR conditions expected at all
the airfields through Fri afternoon. Gusty N to NE winds will
affect KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KBUR and KVNY at times, with periodic
low level wind shear possible especially for KOXR and KBUR.

KLAX...Hi confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions expected
through Fri evening. NE winds possibly gusting to as high as 14
kt can be expected tonight.

KBUR...Hi confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions expected
through Fri afternoon. NE winds gusting to as high as 20 kt can
be expected this evening, with low level wind shear expected
tonight into Fri morning.

&&

.MARINE...08/842 PM.

Small Craft Advisory level northeast winds and short-period seas
will continue across across the waters south of Point Conception
tonight through Friday morning, before subsiding some Friday
afternoon. The winds will be strongest nearshore between Rincon
Point and Santa Monica and south of the Palos Verdes Peninsula.

Otherwise and elsewhere, conditions will remain below advisory
criteria through Sunday.

The gusty northeast winds are expected to cause hazardous swell
activity in exposed east- facing harbors of the Channel Islands,
including Avalon Harbor on Catalina Island. If seeking safe harbor
during these gusty winds, Avalon Harbor should not be considered
safe harbor.

Gusty northeast winds could redevelop across the coastal waters
south of Point Conception Sunday. There is a 30 percent chance
that a Small Craft Advisory will be needed between Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...08/152 PM.

An extended period of offshore flow will bring elevated to
critical fire weather conditions to the area today through the
end of next week. A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event will
continue today through Friday across Ventura and Los Angeles
counties. Northeast winds will increase this afternoon and
evening, peak in strength tonight and Friday morning (gusts 50-70
mph) then diminish during the day on Friday. Very dry air will
move into the area with humidity dropping into the single digits
this afternoon and Friday with little or no recovery tonight. So,
widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected across
Ventura and Los Angeles counties today through Friday evening and
a RED FLAG WARNING remains in effect.

For San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties, the offshore winds
will be much weaker. However, there still will likely be wind
gusts between 25 and 35 mph across the mountains and foothills
today through Friday. With humidity dropping into the single
digits (with poor overnight recovery), elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions can be expected through Friday.

On Saturday, the offshore winds will abate, but RED FLAG
conditions may still continue across the mountains. Elevated fire
weather conditions can be expected elsewhere.

For Sunday into the first half of next week, another round of
Santa Ana winds is expected, although the strength of the winds
will be less than the current event. However, very dry atmospheric
and vegetation will remain. So, there is a good chance of
widespread critical fire weather conditions Sunday through
Tuesday.

Considering the wind speeds, extremely dry vegetation and fuels,
and the long duration of the event, this is a dangerous situation.
The public needs to be reminded to be very careful with any
potential fire ignition sources. Large fires have been started by
things such as discarded cigarettes, dragging tow chains, metallic
weed whackers, campfires, and welding equipment.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Freeze Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST
      Sunday for zone 37. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Friday for zones
      40-41. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Friday for zones
      44-45-53-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Friday for zones
      46-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST
      Friday for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Hard Freeze Watch in effect from late Friday night through
      Sunday morning for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 PM PST Friday for zones
      240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Friday for
      zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected through the
period with gusty Santa Ana winds at times and very low
humidities. Sub-freezing temperatures expected Sunday morning in
the Antelope Valley and interior SLO County and possibly through
the middle of next week as well.

&&

PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Smith
FIRE...Thompson
SYNOPSIS...Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Event by event

2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Santa Monica Mountains Recreation Area

When
November 8, 9:38 PM PST to November 9, 4:00 AM PST
Where
Santa Monica Mountains Recreation Area forecast zone
Measured
63 kt (72 mph) measured gust
Reported by
RAWS

Strong Santa Ana winds developed across the Santa Monica Mountains. Peak wind gusts reported by the local RAWS network including gusts up to 72 MPH at South Mountain and gusts up to 67 MPH at Boney Mountain.

High Wind, Los Angeles County Mountains Excluding the Santa Monica Range

When
November 8, 11:53 PM PST to November 9, 4:00 AM PST
Where
Los Angeles County Mountains Excluding the Santa Monica Range forecast zone
Measured
54 kt (62 mph) measured gust
Reported by
RAWS

Strong Santa Ana winds developed across the Los Angeles county mountains. Peak wind gusts reported by the local RAWS network including gusts up to 62 MPH at Oat Mountain and gusts up to 60 MPH at Warm Springs.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in California, November 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 795840, 795842.