California, 2018

Wildfire in California, November 8 to 25, 2018

November 8 to 25, 2018 · NWS STO · 1 event in 1 county or zone

An extended period of dry weather through the summer and fall with above normal temperatures coupled with a gusty north to northeast wind event created a situation for extremely rapid fire growth. A large wildfire developed, the deadliest and most destructive in history for California.

The toll

Deaths
86
Injuries
12
Property damage
$17 billion
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS STO wrote it up.

An extended period of dry weather through the summer and fall with above normal temperatures coupled with a gusty north to northeast wind event created a situation for extremely rapid fire growth. A large wildfire developed, the deadliest and most destructive in history for California.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sacramento, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 3:25 AM PST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 8, 3:25 AM PST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
325 AM PST Thu Nov 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with above normal temperatures through the forecast
period. Strong north to east downslope wind today into Friday
morning resulting in critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High amplitude upper ridging in EPAC with short wave trough
digging along leading edge of ridge through NorCal. Surface high
extends from EPAC through PacNW into Great Basin. Surface pressure
gradient is trending up and is over 4 mb from KRDD-KSAC, over 8
mb from KRDD-KMFR, and nearly 9mb from KSFO-KRNO. As a result,
strong gusty north to east wind will occur across portions of
interior NorCal today that will persist into Friday morning.
Sustained wind speeds will generally run from 15 to 35 mph with
gusts up to 45 mph on western and northern portions of the Central
Valley, and up to 60 mph through favorably oriented canyons and
over ridges in the foothills and mountains. Downslope wind is also
producing a significant lowering in humidity with critical fire
weather conditions existing across portions of interior NorCal.
Upper trough moving through will bring a few degrees of synoptic
cooling in the Central Valley and upwards of 10 degrees in the
foothills and mountains.

Wind speeds trend down in the Central Valley this evening, but
remain strong in portions of the foothills and mountains overnight
into tomorrow morning. Lower dewpoints with lighter wind in the
Central Valley tonight will produce strong longwave radiational
cooling with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s for
some locations. Wind sheltered areas in the foothills and
mountains could see minimum temperatures in the teens and 20s.

Pressure gradients decrease Friday afternoon resulting in
decreasing wind. Lighter wind forecast on Saturday, then models
suggest increasing wind again Saturday night into Sunday as next
short wave moves down leading edge of EPAC upper ridge into the
Great Basin. Little change expected in high temperatures Friday
into Sunday with low to mid 70s in the Central Valley, and upper
40s to upper 60s for the foothills and mountains.

PCH

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Dry with above normal temperatures through the extended period as
upper level high pressure remains over the west coast. Upper
ridge axis forecast to center over the west coast on Monday
bringing a little warming with substance under the ridge keeping
conditions very dry for this time of year. Minimum RH values will
drop into the lower teens many areas keeping fire danger fairly
high but winds should remain relatively light on Monday. A Pacific
frontal system flattens the west coast ridge around next Tuesday
afternoon as it moves into the Pacific northwest. This will bring
a little cooling and a slightly more onshore flow but otherwise
have little impact with winds remaining fairly light and RH values
remaining low. Temperatures warm slightly Wednesday and Thursday
as upper ridge rebuilds. Winds are still not expected to be
especially strong mid week but RH values will stay quite low each
afternoon in the dry airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over interior Norcal next 24 hours. Local North to
northeast wind gusts to 35 knots northern Sacramento valley and
up to 50 knots over ridgetops through about 00z. Winds decreasing
slowly after 00z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 AM PST Friday for Burney Basin and
Northeast Plateau in Shasta County Including Northwest Lassen NF
north of Lassen NP-Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento
Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County
Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of
Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-Napa-Sonoma Unit-
Northern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of
Nevada-Yuba-Placer-Amador and ElDorado Units-Northern Sacramento
Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern San
Joaquin Valley in San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties Below 1000
ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes
portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-Northern Sierra
Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of the
Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-Beckworth Peak)-
Northern Sierra Including the Tahoe and ElDorado NF/S West of
the Sierra Crest-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western
Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Motherlode From 1000 to
3000 Ft. Includes portions of Calaveras-Tuolumne Unit-Southern
Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer,
southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft-Stanislaus NF
West of the Sierra Crest.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Burney Basin /
Eastern Shasta County-Central Sacramento Valley-Clear
Lake/Southern Lake County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta
Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-Southern Sacramento Valley-
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen
Park.

&&

Event by event

1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley

When
November 8, 6:33 AM PST to November 25, 3:00 PM PST
Where
Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley forecast zone
Deaths
86 direct, 0 indirect
Injuries
12 direct, 0 indirect
Property damage
$17 billion
Reported by
Fire Department/Rescue

The Camp Fire began on the morning of November 8, 2018, by Camp Creek Road, near Pulga in Butte County. The fire was not fully contained until November 25. This fire was the most destructive wildfire in California history, destroying much of the city of Paradise, the community of Concow, and damaging the towns of Pulga and Magalia. There were 18,804 structures destroyed, 13,696 of them single homes, along with 514 commercial structures and 3,718 outbuildings and 153,336 acres burned. There were a total of 86 deaths from the fire, with 12 civilians and 5 firefighters injured. There were 3 people missing as of 1/24/2019, when Butte County Sheriff closed their missing persons call center for the Camp Fire. Damage costs to insured buildings has been estimated to be at least $10 billion. |Conditions which lead to this fire included several recent years with drought conditions, late spring rainfall bringing additional growth of grass for fuel, dry weather for seven months prior to the fire, very low humidity due to several north wind events, record dry fuel and gusty northeast winds the day of the fire. Local wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph were measured nearby at Jarbo Gap, with a peak gust in the early morning of 52 mph. These winds caused the fire to spread very quickly. The fire forced the rapid evacuation of over 27,000 people from Paradise, Magalia, Centerville, Concow, Pulga, Butte Creek Canyon, Berry Creek and Yankee Hill. The fire also threatened the communities of Butte Valley, Chico, Forest Ranch, Helltown, Inskip, Oroville, and Stirling City. All residents were not allowed to return home until December 15, when the final evacuation orders were lifted. |Smoke from the fire was dense at times across much of Northern California, concentrated by strong atmospheric inversions. Air quality was reported by the Air Resources Board as some of the worst on record, causing many schools to close and events to be canceled across the area. Visibility was below 1/2 mile at times.|The cause of the fire is under investigation, though there evidence suggests it occurred near damaged power lines.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect
Wildfire, Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley2018-11-08UnknownDirect

What these are

Wildfire
A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in California, November 2018

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 788675.