A short fused-short lived, strong surface low pressure system developed on a front along the outer coast during the late morning hours on 11/13. This system was unique in that it was poorly handled by numerical models and NOT on any surface analyses.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A short fused-short lived, strong surface low pressure system developed on a front along the outer coast during the late morning hours on 11/13. This system was unique in that it was poorly handled by numerical models and NOT on any surface analyses. This low cause brief strong wind gusts 60 to 70 mph for Northern Prince of Wales, Kuiu, and southern Baranof Islands. There were also hurricane force gusts at Five Finger Light in Stephens Passage. Some minor damage was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 13, 5:57 AM AKST, 4 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
557 AM AKST Tue Nov 13 2018
.SHORT TERM...A rapidly developing low west of Haida Gwaii will
move north over the eastern Gulf Tuesday morning. Strong winds and
bands of heavy rain wrapped around the low will impact much of the
southern panhandle and central outer coast this morning through
early afternoon. Winds gusting to 45 mph are expected with a 60 kt
low level southerly jet residing over the southern panhandle. The
low quickly makes its way across the central outer coast and
northern inner channels Tuesday afternoon and eventually
dissipates tonight as it separates from its upper level support.
The broad upper trough extending over the NPAC will guide another
low into the southern Gulf early Wednesday. This low is not
expected to be as strong as today's as it drifts into the eastern
Gulf Wednesday. Showers will continue to spread, especially over
the southern panhandle, throughout the day. Model runs came into
fairly good agreement this morning, with the 06z NAM and REG
Canadian used to add detail to the winds Tuesday. Wednesday's
forecast remains pretty much on track, with only slight
adjustments to the placement of the low. Forecast confidence is
above average through today and tomorrow.
.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/A wet patterns remains in
place through the weekend. Thursday looks to begin with shower
activity associated with a remnant surface low pressure system in
place over the Panhandle. This system will dissipate through the
day with the associated shower activity diminishing as well. A
brief period of upper level ridging will build immediately behind
this system supporting the possibility of a brief dry period
between Thursday afternoon and Friday. The dry period will be
short lived as the next front arrives between late Friday
afternoon and Saturday morning. Some heavy precipitation
especially along the northeast gulf coast is expected out of the
this system with strong southerly flow supporting deep moisture
transportation into the area. As the upper level support shifts a
bit further east this weekend the front will push ashore the rest
of the Panhandle. A wet weekend is expected across the Panhandle.
As far as snowfall...there is not much support for low elevation
snowfall through the weekend, outside of the Highways near Haines
and Skagway. Strong southerly flow will warm temperatures to well
above freezing with snow levels rising back to between 3000 to
5000ft along the outer coast.
Overall forecast confidence is average with large spread between
model ensembles as well as poor run to run consistency.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ027.
Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ033-035-036-041-042.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-032-034-043-051-052.
Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&
DDH/JB
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau4 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Port Alexander measured gusts to 63 mph. No damage reported.
Point Gardiner had measured gusts to 74 mph. Five Finger Light had gusts to 64 Knots. No damage was reported.
Point Gardiner had measured gusts to 74 mph. Five Finger Light had gusts to 64 Knots. No damage was reported. Peak wind at the light was 91 mph.
Salmon Landing had gusts to 90 mph. The harbor had gusts to 70 mph. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 788339, 788340, 788342, 788343.