On the first day of February, a strong area of frontogenesis developed with the front moving north into the southern panhandle. N-NE-E outflow wind will kept temperatures cold enough on the north side of the front to allow snow to get up to southern Admiralty Island.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
On the first day of February, a strong area of frontogenesis developed with the front moving north into the southern panhandle. N-NE-E outflow wind will kept temperatures cold enough on the north side of the front to allow snow to get up to southern Admiralty Island. Increases in 850mb temps above freezing late Thursday night into Friday morning made the rain/snow line critical and difficult to forecast. Significant snowfall occurred for Port Alexander, Petersburg, Wrangell, Point Baker and Coffman Cove. Ketchikan had wintry mix. No damage was reports and the impact was snow removal.
Some places could have had blizzard conditions with this event due to strong outflow. Port Alex had gusts of around 40kt during bands of snow. Highest snow falls extended a little farther south then expected. Petersburg, to Whale Pass to Thorne Bay, and Coffman Cove got buried. lighter amounts elsewhere. Snow changed to rain early in Ketchikan and overnight at Kasaan limited snow amounts to 1 to 2 inches there. Hyder still snowing as of 11 am 2/2 with 7 inches accumulated so far, and up to 9.3 inches as of 730 pm. Unknown about Port Alexander and Kake.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 1, 3:04 PM AKST, 2 hours 56 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
304 PM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018
.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ A weak low pressure area
will move ENE across the far SE gulf tonight, then inland across
the southern panhandle Fri into Fri evening. A strong high will
persist over NW Canada into the weekend. Another weak low and
front will approach the area from the SE over the weekend, but
model differences remain on how far N this system will get before
turning E. Blended in the 12z GFS to handle Sat-Sat night to show
better definition to the pressure gradient over the area.
Otherwise made mostly manual adjustments to the forecast, mainly
to speed up system moving across the area tonight and Fri.
With faster system, ended up ending the current WSWs over the S
area several hours sooner than previous forecast had it. Still
looking like 6-10 inches of snow for zones 23 and 26, with 12-18
inches for 29. There is some concern that precip could remain
snow a bit longer over N end of zones 27 and 28 this evening, but
not putting out any winter hazards for those zones. Precip should
taper off from the W Fri afternoon and evening, mostly exiting
the Hyder area by midnight.
Flow regime aloft favors potential for Taku Winds in the Juneau
area Fri night and Sat. Strong cross barrier flow (40+ kt) is
expected with inversion base near 850 mb and critical level around
500 mb. Not showing a flow reversal scenario though, so may not
get maximum wave reflection off the critical level. Going for
gust potential to 65 mph in downtown Juneau and Douglas Fri night
into Sat, with diminishing trend by late Sat afternoon as some
weakening of cross barrier flow occurs. Will issue high wind watch
for the Taku wind area for Fri night and Sat.
Otherwise, will extend the wind chill advisory headline for zone
18 until 18z Sat based on updated temp/wind forecast for White
Pass area. Keeping strong wind headlines going for zones 18 and 25
as well through Fri afternoon. Kept in gale to storm force N winds
for much of the N inner channels and out of interior passes into
the NE gulf. Much of the N will have freezing spray with heaviest
expected over Lynn Canal and N end of Stephens Passage. Still have
10-16 ft seas for Lynn Canal, N end of Chatham Strait, and far N
end of Stephens Passage W of the Auke Bay area.
.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/ As of 10pm Wednesday
Higher pressure over the Alaska Interior and Northwest Canada will
be keeping most of the precipitation over the southern gulf and
southern half of the Panhandle. Precipitation will be mainly south
of Frederick Sound through Sunday before again advancing north.
This second push of precipitation will reach up to the far reaches
of Skagway- Haines areas by late Sunday night/early Monday
morning. Heaviest precipitation remains in the southern half of
the Panhandle.
Temperatures will continue to be warm enough for rain in the
southern parts of the Panhandle this weekend. By Monday areas as
far north as Tenakee Springs/Pelican could see daytime highs go
above freezing. The gentle warm push will continue northward by
mid week reaching all but the far north in the Haines/Skagway
area. As temperatures are looking to be warming into the upper 30s
by the end of the weekend for the south, a swing of precipitation
type could occur. Daytime precipitation will likely change to all
rain while nighttime precipitation will change back to snow, with
a mix during the transition hours.
With a surface low in the gulf, and the high pressure in the
Yukon, outflow winds will continue across the northern Panhandle.
Strong gales force wind will continue Sunday for Lynn Canal.
Skagway/Haines area will be windy, as well. Winds will be on the
diminishing trend early next week as the gradient weakens over the
northern Panhandle, a much awaited reprieve for Lynn Canal.
An ensemble approach with a lean to the GFS was the main solution
for the minor adjustments to the forecast. The ECMWF and the NAMnest
lent some value, while moving through the updates. The main
message is for increasing temperatures and decreasing winds into
mid week. Both changes will be slow, but persistent in its
advancement from south to north.
Forecast confidence is average.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Friday
for AKZ023-026.
High Wind Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
for AKZ025.
Strong Wind through Friday afternoon for AKZ018-019-025.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST
Friday night for AKZ029.
Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
Storm Warning for PKZ012-013.
Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031-034-035-043-051.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-032-033-041-042-052-053.
&&
RWT/KV
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau4 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
We could not get any measurements for Southern Baranof Island, but radar looked like Port Alexander got dumped on during the morning of 2/2. Happy Ground Hog's Day. Gusts 40 mph could have caused blizzard-like conditions on 2/2.
Happy Ground Hog's Day. Petersburg, Kake, and Point Baker got at least 7 inches of snow in 12 hours overnight. 6 inches at Wrangell. Impact was snow removal.
Happy Ground Hog's Day. Storm total for Hyder was 9.3 inches in 12 hours ending at 1930 on 2/2. Impact was snow removal.
So, 6.5 inches at Thorne Bay as of 930 pm 2/1 and 3 inches at Kasaan as of 9 pm 2/1. Observed 7.0 inches 24 hour total at Thorne Bay gives a storm total 9.0 inches. DOT on Prince of Wales observed 7 to 9 inches near Thorne Bay and Coffman Cove. Impact was snow removal.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2018Every state in 2018This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, February 2018
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 738514, 738515, 738516, 738513.