Drought in Florida, February 1 to 13, 2018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
815 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018

.UPDATE...

No significant changes were made to tonight's forecast, but slight
adjustments were made to temperatures based on latest observations
and model projections. The western edge of a broad area of high
pressure is still present over our area, so dry conditions will
continue overnight. However, light southerly flow ahead of an
approaching upper level trough will increase upper level moisture
and high clouds from west to east during the early morning hours.
Low temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 30s across most of
our inland areas. Lower-mid 40s are possible across parts of SE
Alabama and the FL Panhandle where increasing cloud cover could
keep temperatures from dropping as fast as locations farther to
the east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [620 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Upper level flow will be briefly zonal across the Gulf Coast
overnight. Surface high pressure along the Carolina Coast will
slide out to sea allowing winds over our area to swing around to
onshore. This will gradually bring in additional moisture and
result in some increase in cloud cover overnight. The clouds
should keep temps front dropping as low as this morning. Most
inland areas will dip to the upper 30s to around 40 degrees, with
portions of the FL Panhandle west of the Apalachicola river only
dropping into the middle 40s.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
A broad, but shallow trough will sweep across the eastern CONUS
on Thursday, pushing the tail end of a front across the forecast
area. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm into the upper
60s Thursday afternoon. With minimal moisture return, weak upper
dynamics, and poor low-level convergence, showers are expected to
be limited, with only scattered showers expected with the passage.
A cooler airmass behind the front will allow for temperatures to
fall into the lower to mid 30s Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
A more significant shortwave will dive into the base of the broad
eastern trough by Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Large-scale
forcing and available moisture appear to be more favorable with
this system, leading to a more widespread rain event as the
surface low tracks eastward along the Gulf Coast. Still, with the
rapid movement of the system, QPF amounts are expected to
generally remain below one inch. Guidance is fairly pessimistic at
this point with regards to any available instability, so will
leave the mention of thunder out for the time being.

The airmass behind this system is expected to be terribly cold, so
expect temperatures near normal for early next week.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail tonight through tomorrow morning as
light southerly winds prevail. Mid-high level clouds will
gradually increase from west to east overnight through the
morning, with some cigs around 5000 ft or slightly lower possible
at our western terminals during the morning.

.MARINE...
Easterly winds today will become southerly on Thursday ahead of a
weak cold front. Winds may rise to exercise caution or advisory
levels behind the front on Friday into early Saturday. Winds will
increase and become onshore again by Sunday with another
approaching front.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture will increase on Thursday ahead of an approaching weak
cold front with no concerns on Thursday. Much drier air will move
in behind the front on Friday afternoon with RH values close to
critical levels across portions of the Florida panhandle. Wind and
fuel moisture values are also forecast to be borderline on Friday
afternoon for red flag conditions across the Florida panhandle.

.HYDROLOGY...
The next chance for significant rainfall will likely be late in
the weekend. However, with rainfall totals expected to be less
than one inch, no flooding issues are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   38  68  53  64  36 /   0  10  20  10   0
Panama City   48  67  54  62  39 /   0  10  30  10   0
Dothan        40  67  49  58  32 /   0  20  30  10   0
Albany        36  67  50  59  33 /   0  10  30  10   0
Valdosta      36  68  51  63  35 /   0  10  10  20   0
Cross City    39  70  50  69  38 /   0  10  10  20   0
Apalachicola  46  65  56  65  40 /   0  10  20  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Lahr
NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Camp