Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 6, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
630 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Forecast focus continues to be on thunderstorm potential late
this afternoon/evening.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding convective
initiation/evolution late this afternoon and this evening.
Overnight/early morning convection has helped generate another
weak mid-level shortwave that has since moved east of the area.
Meanwhile, a synoptic cold front associated with a shortwave
trough passing to the north over Canada has been approaching from
Minnesota.

A few questions still remain on the convective initiation this
afternoon. Large scale forcing is weak, with the main upper
shortwave displaced north, although a weaker wave could provide
modest support by late afternoon. Some mid-level height falls do
arrive this evening, too. Boundary layer convergence appears
unimpressive along the front with relatively light flow. However,
convection could also get a boost from any old outflow boundaries
across central Wisconsin. With the overall weak forcing, models
show a range of solutions regarding the location and areal extent
of convection. This is likely, in part, due to the variability in
available boundary layer moisture/capping and weak forcing.
Overall, though, confidence remains highest in at least scattered
thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening across
central Wisconsin with slightly better upper forcing along with
the synoptic/outflow boundaries providing some low-level
convergence. The degree of convective development is more
uncertain farther south and west, with overall confidence lowering
in these areas. With the weak forcing and the front still to the
northwest into the late afternoon, in the absence of any outflow
boundary related development, would not be surprised to see
convection a little slower to develop towards early evening.

That said, the convective environment will be favorable for severe
storms with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range along with 25-40
kts of deep layer shear. Although shear is not terribly high, it
may be enough for a few supercells to start if storms form before
a messier/linear storm mode ensues, dependent on storm coverage.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats,
although will have to watch rainfall if any mesoscale boundaries
help trigger repeated storms over a particular area, especially
across central Wisconsin, where a few areas received over 2 inches
of rain yesterday. Expect the storms to largely exit the region
by late in the evening behind the frontal passage.

Cooler and less humid air will filter across the region on Friday
behind the front. A shortwave trough dropping south during the
afternoon could result in a few afternoon showers/storms, especially
over western Wisconsin. With the drier airmass, instability will be
much lower, but the combination of up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts
of deep layer shear, a few strong storms could develop during peak
heating, especially across central Wisconsin. Highs will be in the
70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

Northwest flow will persist through the period with the mean
longwave ridge position expected to gradually translate from the
Rockies this weekend towards the plains later next week. For the
weekend, high pressure at the surface on Saturday should lead to
mainly dry day. Some model solutions have tried to develop a few
storms later in the day and evening across northeast Iowa with
some weak warm/moist advection.

Otherwise, for Sunday and into next week, deterministic model
guidance indicates the potential for several upper level waves to
impact the area. Timing of these systems and associated
thunderstorm chances remain tough to pin down. There is a general
consensus, though, of one such wave bringing increased chances
for showers/storms later Sunday or Monday with lower confidence in timing
these disturbances through the middle of next week. Temps look to
remain close to seasonal averages through much of this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

A cold front continues to makes its approach, with a few isolated
showers and thunderstorms trying to develop north of I-90 at the
moment ahead of that feature. There remains a very small risk that
a rogue shower or storm could impact LSE or RST through late
evening, though confidence has increased that in all likelihood
those spots will remain dry, with VFR conditions expected right on
through Friday afternoon as drier air works in behind the front,
though with some diurnal cumulus development expected on Friday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Lawrence

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
230 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-071200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
230 PM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered severe storms are possible this evening between 6 PM
and 11 PM. The highest threat for severe weather looks to be
across portions of central Wisconsin, mainly along and east of
Interstate 94. Damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy
rainfall are the primary threats. Isolated hail greater than 2
inches in diameter is possible. Over central Wisconsin, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, however, the tornado threat
appears low at this time.

In addition, heat indices will reach into the 95 to 100 range
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There will be periodic thunderstorm chances through the weekend
into early next week. However, it remains too early to discern
any severe threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 6 PM and 11 PM.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
636 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

MNZ079-088-WIZ032-033-070000-
Wabasha-Winona-Buffalo-Trempealeau-
636 PM CDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PARTS OF WINONA...
WABASHA...SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO...AND WESTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 635 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Buffalo City,
or 9 miles southeast of Alma, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winona, Arcadia, Alma, Buffalo, Buffalo City, Fountain City, Dodge,
Waumandee, Cochrane, West Newton, Minneiska, Pioneer Campground,
Merrick State Park, Cream, Highway 88 And County O, Weaver, Highway
95 And County G, Highway 95 And County C, Herold and Highways 37 And
35.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4422 9198 4435 9193 4426 9148 4405 9157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 294DEG 22KT 4422 9182

Lawrence