A stationary boundary persisted across the Mid-Atlantic region. High moisture content led to high rainfall rates and due to multiple rounds of heavy rain flooding occurred across the region.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A stationary boundary persisted across the Mid-Atlantic region. High moisture content led to high rainfall rates and due to multiple rounds of heavy rain flooding occurred across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 2:55 AM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 355 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary persists across the Mid-Atlantic through tonight. Low pressure crosses the area today with another surface low passing through the area tonight. A cold front will cross through the region Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic behind the front this weekend and persist into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... At 345 AM objective analysis indicates quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped just to the SW of the forecast area...with upper low/vort max near southern Illinois. Area of ongoing showers continues to the NE of the boundary in an region of upper-level divergence out ahead of vort max. Radar observations indicate best coverage/intensity across north Central VA moving into the southern DC suburbs...with mainly light rain elsewhere. High resolution guidance beginning to converge on heaviest rainfall setting up from now through late morning/midday between Loudoun and DC (perhaps into south central MD) south to Culpeper and Stafford. Latest radar trends support this as echoes have been increasing over this area during the last 30 minutes. Thus, we have increasing concern of at least localized flooding across this area through midday as 850 mb moisture transport is maximized in an area of anomalously high PWATs (2+ inches)...which will lead to torrential rainfall rates. Storm motions near 10 mph so far have helped...thus, held off (for now) on a Flash Flood Watch. Though, we will certainly be watching how this area of precipitation evolves as FF ingredients are certainly favorable across this area. Regardless of flash flooding potential... moderate- to-heavy rainfall will certainly complicate the morning commute across parts of the area. Expect isolated-to-scattered redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon near the frontal boundary...which by that time should have made some northeastward progress into the area. A few stronger storms are possible near and south of DC this afternoon if airmass can sufficiently recover. Gusty winds are the primary threat as water loading enhances downward momentum transfer. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Primary vort max approaches the area tonight...with surface low traversing over the area into the day Friday. General consensus is for heaviest rain to occur to the N of the low track...which would place N/W MD in the axis of heavier rainfall tonight. Deep-layer moisture remains very high...so heavy rainfall is likely where rainfall axis sets up. Cold front approaches the area from the NW late Friday into Saturday...with a possibility of thunderstorms reaching the far NW portion of the forecast area by Friday evening. Otherwise most areas should remain dry into Sunday as high pressure building into the area allows for drier air to filter into the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday, and perhaps Monday as well, will be the quietest portion of this 7-day forecast. High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic. The recent cold front would have brought sub-60 degree dewpoint air into the region. Temperatures aloft would support highs in the 80s, although we may be pushing 90 degrees again by Monday around DC and points south. Overnight lows will be pleasant for early July as well...in the 60s, even in the cities. A cold front will be dropping southeast by Tuesday. Moisture will be drawn north ahead of this boundary. The forecast questions have revolved around how quickly that will happen. Although it is a long way out, there is increasing evidence that Monday won't be entirely dry; thunderstorms would be isolated in nature. The better chance of rain would be Tuesday and Wednesday, although confidence right now not higher than chance PoPs. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Primarily MVFR conditions at TAF sites through at least midday with localized VFR or lower...especially in areas of heavy rainfall (especially at IAD/DCA). Showers and thunderstorm chances continue through tonight...with flight restrictions likely in the heaviest activity. Improving conditions expected late Friday into the weekend as drier air filters into the region. VFR flight conditions expected Sunday, and should extend into Monday. There is an outside chance of a thunderstorm Monday PM. && .MARINE... Relatively light winds expected over the waters through today...though, showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are possible. A few storms across the Tidal Potomac and middle Bay could contain gusty winds this afternoon...with perhaps an isolated SMW. Winds could increase to SCA Friday into Saturday as cold fronts cross the area. Light (less than 10 kt) winds expected Sunday under high pressure. There may be onshore flow by afternoon. As the high departs by Monday, a south flow regime will become established. Speeds should be in the 10-15 kt range. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Light onshore flow persists through today before turning southerly briefly tonight and then westerly Friday. Anomalies have increased to just above a half a foot...though even sensitive sites have remained at action stage or less. Best chance for coastal flooding would occur on tonights high tide cycle at Annapolis and Straits. Will reassess this after this mornings high tide cycle. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...MSE SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...HTS AVIATION...MSE/HTS MARINE...MSE/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MSE
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 511 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-070915- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George- 511 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and adjacent counties in central Maryland and northern Virginia as well as the District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Slow-moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain will be possible today and tonight. These showers and storms may lead to isolated flash flooding. An isolated thunderstorm capable of producing gusty winds over the waters are possible this afternoon across the Tidal Potomac and middle Chesapeake Bay. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-070915- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 511 AM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland with the exception of Garrett County. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Slow-moving thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain will be possible today and tonight. These showers and storms may lead to isolated flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
17 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding reported near the intersection of Keith Road and Cannonball Gate Road.
The 3500 block of Route 1 closed near Potomac Creek due to flooding.
Dunbar Drive closed near Rock Hill Church Road due to stream flooding.
Shelton Shop Road closed at the Accokeek Creek bridge near Courthouse Road due to flooding.
Route 1 flooded and closed near Aquia Creek and Telegraph Road.
Flooding reported at the intersection of Poplar Drive and Heflin Road.
Flooding reported at the intersection of Barrington Woods Boulevard and Tacketts Mill Road near Heflin.
Route 1 flooded and closed near Locust Shade Park adjacent to Quantico.
Baldwin Street was closed just east of Lee Highway due to flooding of Mill Run.
Lee Highway flooded and closed between Comfort Inn Drive and Dumfries Road in Warrenton due to flooding.
Flooding reported at the intersection of Stefaniga Road and Mountain View Road.
Flooding reported at the intersection of Catharpin Road and Heathcote Boulevard.
Wellington Road flooded and closed at a stream crossing near Rollins Ford Road.
Both Pageland Road and Artemus Road were flooded and closed where Little Bull Run crosses due to the stream being out of its banks.
Woodburn Road was flooded and closed at Accotink Creek.
Burke Road flooded and closed near Mill Cove Court.
The stream gauge on Broad Run at Bristow exceeded flood stage. It peaked at 12.06 feet at 18:00 EST. Piper Lane was flooded near Manassas Airport. Trails near the stream were also flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 713189, 713192, 713193, 713194, 713196, 713197, 713198, 713201, 713190, 713191, 713199, 713200, 713202, 713204, 713206, 713207, 709386.