Minnesota, 2017Flash Flood and Hail in Minnesota, July 6, 2017
July 6, 2017 · NWS MPX · 3 events in 1 county or zone
A small complex of severe storms drifted southward across northern Kanabec County and produced a swath of large hail, torrential rainfall and flooding. The hail lasted nearly an hour in some spots, with damaging hail generally from the Knife Lake area northeast to the Pomroy Lake area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $75,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A small complex of severe storms drifted southward across northern Kanabec County and produced a swath of large hail, torrential rainfall and flooding. The hail lasted nearly an hour in some spots, with damaging hail generally from the Knife Lake area northeast to the Pomroy Lake area. Flooding was also reported, with damage to area roads.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 10:01 PM CST, 3 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 10:01 PM CST, 3 hours 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1101 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017
Despite an extremely unstable airmass with uncapped SBCAPE of
greater than 5000 J/kg thanks to dewpoints in the low to mid 70s,
the lack of forcing has greatly limited the thunderstorm
potential this evening. A developing LLJ may be enough to spark a
few storms after midnight, primarily across central MN, but the
best chance will be further north with a stronger short wave. Even
the cu field is largely non-existent across northeast ND and
northern MN this evening, but there are some hints at better
development near Minot, ND and especially across southern Canada.
Already reduced PoPs earlier, but will need to take them out for
at least the next several hours until the developing complex well
to the north spreads activity southeastward. This may not occur
until Thursday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017
The short term concerns remain convective/severe potential tonight
and thursday.
Water vapor imagery showing the back end of upper trough exiting
eastern MN at this time. Some mid cloud trying to develop
along/ahead of the western fringe...but latest mesoanalysis shows
decent capping remains to the east. We may yet see some
redevelopment associated with this feature...but should be mainly
into west central WI. Then HIRES models have continued to trend some
redevelopment to the northwest cwa late this afternoon/evening. Main
boundary is farther north but the RUC and water vapor imagery
suggests a weak short wave moving through eastern NODAK now. This
may be enough to generate at least some widely scattered convection
mainly this evening to the northwest. Then the HRRR tries to develop
something farther to the west as the cold front moves across North
Dakota and drops that into central MN after 06z. We will trend PoPs
up to high end chance for now after 06z and spread them southeast
through 12z. SPC Day1 looks good for the overnight. Activity is
conditional but if it does develop it would likely become severe
with high cape and decent shear expected. It will definitely have to
be monitored this evening.
The front is progged into eastern MN by 18z THU and redevelopment is
still a question...especially if we do get any outflow from
overnight activity. We will continue to play the chance PoP scenario
over the eastern area through the day. Expected temperatures will
still warm through the lower 90s into sc MN ahead of boundary
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017
Not much change to the extended part of the forecast. Northwest flow
Thursday night will lead to subsidence and surface high pressure
building in for the weekend, meaning cooler and drier air starting
Friday. As of now, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms is
Sunday night into Monday where the GFS/GEM/ECMWF 05.12 all depict an
MCS moving across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Beyond
that, there will be a few additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms heading into next week.
Friday will have breezy northerly winds as high pressure moves into
the area. Forecast soundings show a thin sliver of elevated
instability, but large-scale subsidence should win out. There is a
compact PV anomaly, but it should be east of the region by Friday
afternoon so any pops associated with is will be across eastern
Wisconsin. Saturday will be sunny with light winds and dewpoints in
the upper 50s to the north and lower 60s to the south. Moisture will
try to return on Sunday, which will lead to around 2000-3000 J/kg of
MUCAPE by late afternoon. Deep layer shear will be around 40 to 50
kts, so should see organized storms grow upscale into a squall line
that moves across the region overnight.
Temperatures beyond Sunday will be near the seasonal average for mid
July. A few shortwave troughs could bring showers and thunderstorms
at times next week, but timing and placement of these features is
unrealistic at this point in the forecast, so continued with blended
model guidance which carries slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms across parts of the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017
Clear skies at taf issuance time, with increasing potential for
thunderstorms overnight mainly north of I-94. More storms may
develop near EAU Thursday, but it appears the best chance will be
to the east across central Wisconsin.
KMSP...No concerns this evening. The risk of storms overnight
appears to be diminishing a bit, with the best chances north.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind NW at 10G15kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S at 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 7:02 PM CST, 6 hours 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
802 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017
MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
070115-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
802 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
There is a marginal risk of severe weather late tonight. A few
storms could produce large hail and damaging winds.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday
toward central Wisconsin, with a slight risk across the remainder
of west central Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota. However, a
severe storm is possible as far west as the Twin Cities metro and
Mankato.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed overnight and Thursday.
Borghoff
Hail, Kanabec
- When
- July 6, 1:15 AM CST to 1:30 AM CST
- Where
- Kanabec County, 0.12 mi WSW of Woodland to 4.17 mi S of Warman
- Measured
- 1.75 in hail
- Property damage
- $50,000
- Reported by
- Public
- Coordinates
- 46.119, -93.282
There was a swath of large hail, up to golf ball size, that damaged siding, broke windows and damage campers in northern Kanabec County.
Hail, Kanabec
- When
- July 6, 1:30 AM CST to 1:45 AM CST
- Where
- Kanabec County, 4.79 mi SSW of Warman to 3.71 mi WSW of Kroschel
- Measured
- 1.75 in hail
- Property damage
- $15,000
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 46.010, -93.330
Another area of large hail, up to golf ball size, occurred north of Mora, between Knife Lake area east to Pomroy Lake area, lasting for 15 minutes. Some damage was reported to area homes and campers.
Flash Flood, Kanabec
- When
- July 6, 2:30 AM CST to 5:00 AM CST
- Where
- Kanabec County, 2.16 mi NW of Warman to 5.8 mi NW of Kroschel
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Property damage
- $10,000
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 46.088, -93.317
Torrential rainfall that lasted over two hours, caused flooding, especially between the Knife Lake area, east to the Pomroy Lake area. There was some damage to roads due to the flooding.
- Hail
- Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Excessive Heat in Nevada, July 6 to 8, 201720 deaths · 1 event
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 6, 2017$4.4 million · 3.5 in hail · 24 events
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strikes in Georgia, July 6, 2017$115,000 · 55 kt wind · 14 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 6 to 7, 2017$44,000 · 1.25 in hail · 17 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 6, 2017$39,000 · 1 in hail · 8 events
- Flood and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, July 6, 2017$20,000 · 56 kt wind · 14 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Michigan, July 6, 2017$23,000 · 61 kt wind · 9 events
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Virginia, July 6, 2017$22,000 · 50 kt wind · 10 events
- Tornado in Minnesota, July 6, 2017EF1 · 1 event
- Damaging Winds in Louisiana, July 6, 201753 kt wind · 22 events
- Damaging Winds and Heavy Rain in South Carolina, July 6, 2017$200 · 60 kt wind · 18 events
- Flooding in Virginia, July 6, 201717 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 712364, 712365, 712663.