Washington, 2017

High Wind in Washington, January 1, 2017

January 1, 2017 · NWS SEW · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Brief high wind occurred on Lopez Island.

Where it happened

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  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.

Brief high wind occurred on Lopez Island.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 1, 3:32 PM PST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 1, 3:32 PM PST, 1 hour 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
332 PM PST Sun Jan 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A modified arctic front will sweep across the area
tonight for locally gusty northerly winds. Meanwhile, a low
pressure system aloft will slowly weaken through Monday before
drifting off the Oregon coast Monday night. High pressure aloft
will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday for dry, chilly weather.
Temperatures will be below normal through at least midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Snow showers mainly lingered over northeast Clallam County
(adjacent to the Strait of Juan de Fuca), the north slopes of the
Olympic range, and the southeast corner of the CWA. These areas
were likely receiving measurable snowfall. This is especially
true for northeast Clallam County (adjacent to the Strait of Juan
de Fuca) and the north slopes of the Olympic range, where upslope
flow was enhancing snowfall rates. Will allow the Winter Weather
Advisory for these areas to expire at 6 PM. Additional snowfall
amounts after 6 PM should be below advisory criterion. Expect the
snow showers to gradually diminish or taper off overnight as a
drier air mass invades the region.

Meanwhile, the modified arctic front was still hung up near the
USA/Canadian border. However, the northerly pressure gradient was
tightening due to rising surface pressures over British Columbia
and lower pressure over northern Oregon. The front (albeit much
weakened) should sweep across the CWA once the surface low over
Oregon slips farther south. Will keep the Wind Advisory going
through tonight; although, speeds will likely diminish during the
night.

The upper level Low will gradually weaken through Monday, with the
low center drifting to off the Oregon coast Monday night. Expect
a clearing trend later tonight through Monday, with the snow
shower threat ending for the entire CWA by Monday evening. Wind
and/or clouds will keep min temperatures from becoming too cold
tonight. However, under clear skies and less wind (for most
areas) Monday night, expect temperatures to be as much as ten
degrees colder than tonight. This will be especially true for the
snow covered areas.

High pressure aloft will prevail over the region Tuesday through
Wednesday for dry weather with below normal temperatures. Decided
to lean towards the ECMWF solution for Wednesday. The operational
GFS appeared to be the outlier of the various solutions. On the
plus side, the 1800 UTC GFS cycle has backed off on the idea of a
major winter weather event impacting the CWA. In other words, this
model was now coming more in line with the other solutions.

.LONG TERM...
At this point, Thursday still appeared dry and chilly for the
CWA. Beyond Thursday, confidence in the details was low. The
models agreed that the flow aloft will become westerly and then
back to southerly by the end of the period. However, there was
disagreement on how quickly this will happen. In general, the GFS
was the faster of the solutions. Decided to lean towards the
slower ECMWF. Depending on how quickly the chilly air mass scours
out, one can expect a threat of lowland snow before the precip
changes over to rain. This could happen quickly or it could be a
gradual process.

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low will remain quasi-stationary over
southwest Washington tonight and Monday with light easterly flow
aloft. At the surface, moderate to strong northeast offshore flow
will prevail with high pressure over southern British Columbia.
The air mass is stable. Areas of low and mid clouds should
continue to decrease tonight as drier air moves into the area.

KSEA...Mid level clouds floating around this evening should
gradually decrease with no ceilings by Monday. North wind 10 to
15 knots. Schneider

&&

.MARINE...High pressure over southern British Columbia will
produce moderate to strong northeast offshore flow tonight through
Monday. Gale force Fraser River outflow winds are likely across
the northern inland waters and in the eastern and central Strait
of Juan de Fuca, with small craft advisory winds over the
remaining marine zones. Moderate northeast to east flow will
prevail Tuesday through Friday. Schneider

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected the next 7 days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM this evening
	 for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Olympic range.

	 Wind Advisory in effect until 4 AM Monday for San Juan
 	 County and the lowlands of western Whatcom and Skagit
	 Counties.

PZ...Gale Warnings are in effect for the central/eastern Strait
	 of Juan de Fuca and the Northern Inland Waters.

	 Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the remaining waters.

 	 Small Craft Advisory for rough bar in effect until 10 AM
	 Monday for the Grays Harbor Bar.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

An illustrated version of this forecast discussion can be seen at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 1, 11:57 AM PST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1157 AM PST SUN JAN 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     SNOW             WSW GLENOMA             46.51N 122.16W
01/01/2017  M6.0 INCH        LEWIS              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ELEVATION 820 FEET.

&&

GRUB

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, San Juan

When
January 1, 5:15 PM PST to 7:15 PM PST
Where
San Juan forecast zone
Measured
35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
48.531, -123.025 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Lopez Island recorded high wind of 40 mph gusting to 47 mph.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Washington in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 673025.