Winter Weather in Tennessee, March 11, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1141 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 06z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 855 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this evening places a cold front
along the Gulf Coast. Cool north northeasterly winds persist with
temperatures as of 8 pm CST in the 40s at most locations. Will
make some adjustments to cloud cover to account for short term
trends. Otherwise, remainder of forecast on track at this moment.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Skies remain sunny over much of the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures from the upper 40s to around 60 degrees. A dry
and cold night is expected tonight as high pressure remains in
control. Temperatures will be on the chilly side with readings in
the low to mid 30s. With temperatures expected to be at or below
freezing over northern sections of the forecast area, a freeze
warning is in effect for these areas. Areas south of the freeze
warning will see temperatures in the mid 30s so a frost advisory
is in effect for these areas.

An upper level disturbance will be dropping south through Missouri
on Saturday. Light precipitation will begin to form over northern
sections of the forecast area in the morning and then move south.
There may be a period where precipitation will be a mix of rain
and snow before changing to all rain by mid-morning. Temperatures
will be on the cool side with highs from the upper 30s to lower
50s.

As the upper level disturbance moves through the region Saturday
night, light precipitation will continue to fall. As temperatures
drop back to near or below freezing, rain will change over to snow
especially over northern sections of the forecast area. Some
accumulation is expected over northern sections of the forecast
area with most locations in this region seeing less than 1 inch
of snow. Further south, the change from rain to snow will occur
later in the night so little if any accumulation is expected.
Temperatures will be colder Saturday night with lows in the upper
20s to lower 30s.

Dry weather will return on Sunday as high pressure returns to the
region. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Sunday with fewer
clouds around. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 40s to
lower 50s. A cold front will approach western Arkansas Sunday
night. Some precipitation will form ahead of the front and some of
this activity may reach far western sections of the forecast. If
precipitation forms, it may be in the form of rain or snow as
temperatures will be close to freezing. The remainder of the
forecast area will be dry will lows Monday morning in the mid to
upper 30s.

The cold front will move through the region on Monday spreading
light precipitation ahead of it. With temperatures expected to be
above freezing no winter weather is expected. The front will move
out of the forecast area Monday night with rain ending. High
pressure will build back into the region by Tuesday with dry
weather and below normal temperatures expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Another upper level disturbance will approached the region on
Thursday and move into the forecast area next Friday. This
disturbance will spread more light rain into the region for the
period from Thursday through next Friday. Temperatures will remain
above freezing during the period so no winter weather is expected.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/

VFR conditions will continue overnight, but mid-level clouds will
overspread the Mid-South during the early morning hours. Initially
dry air in the lower troposphere will keep precipitation chances
low through 12z, but gradual top-down moistening will lower cloud
bases and moisten the boundary layer. Showery precipitation is
expected to develop between 12-15z, becoming a bit more widespread
during the late afternoon and evening hours. As the thermal
profile cools during the late morning and early afternoon hours,
light rain showers may mix with snow, especially from KJBR-KMKL
north.

Ceilings may bounce around a bit tomorrow from late morning into
early afternoon, but are forecast to range from 2500-4500 ft for
the most part. By sunset, the column should be sufficiently cool
to support a change-over in the north, potentially seeing very
light snow as far south as KMEM. However, precipitation is
expected to decrease from north to south fairly quickly after 06z.
This will limit the duration of snow, but IFR conditions are
expected to set in for the remainder of the overnight period.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for Clay-Greene-
     Lawrence-Randolph.

     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-Mississippi-Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for Alcorn-Benton
     MS-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Panola-
     Pontotoc-Prentiss-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union.

TN...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Gibson-Henderson-
     Henry-Lake-Madison-Obion-Weakley.

     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for Fayette-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Lauderdale-McNairy-Shelby-Tipton.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
304 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-112315-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lawrence-
Lee AR-Lee MS-Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-
Panola-Pemiscot-Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Francis-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-
Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-Yalobusha-
304 PM CST Fri Mar 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Freezing temperatures are expected to arrive in the Mid South
tonight...remaining below freezing through mid-morning Saturday.
The coldest temperatures may dip into the upper 20s. Fruit trees,
bushes, and tender vegetation that has sprouted early may be
impacted by the freezing temperatures. A freeze warning remains in
effect for northern areas with a frost advisory further south for
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is the potential for light accumulating snow across
portions of the Mid South, mainly north of Interstate 40 for
Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. Please refer to the
latest graphical products for accumulation details.

Freezing temperatures are expected again over a larger portion
of the Mid South including eastern Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, far north Mississippi, and west Tennessee late Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

Some late night and early morning freezing temperatures will
remain possible through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please send snow accumulations to the National Weather Service in
Memphis Tennessee.

JLH

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