NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 9, 6:59 AM EST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 9, 6:59 AM EST, 1 hour 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
659 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm will bring heavy snow to the entire region with
blizzard conditions across southeast Massachusetts Today. High
pressure builds in with drier colder air tonight through Friday
night. Two weather systems then affect us over the weekend, bringing
a chance of snow Saturday and rain or snow Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A Major Winter Storm Impacts The Entire Region Today With
Heavy Snow And Blizzard Conditions Across Southeast
Massachusetts ***
7 am update...
No major changes with this morning update as current trends on
radar reflect the forecast and the most of the latest mesoscale
guidance. Minor adjustments to timing of POPs and updates to the
current temps/dwpts to reflect the possibility of a little bit
of RA to start on the Cape/Islands.
Previous discussion follows.
00z model guidance has trended stronger with coastal storm impacting
the region today, this includes heavier snowfall and stronger winds
than previous runs. Thus have trended the forecast in this
direction.
Potent short wave trough across the TN valley early this morning has
induced a frontal wave over VA. As this mid level trough amplifies
and the frontal wave interacts with a very baroclinic environment
south of New England, explosive cyclogenesis occurs later this
morning and afternoon as surface low tracks from the DE coast at 12z
to near the 40N/70W benchmark at 18z. During this time the low bombs
with a 14 mb pressure drop from 993 to 979 in 6 hrs!
As mid level heights crash the open wave at H7 becomes a closed
circulation directly over southern New England. A strong mid level
deformation zone sets up and with heights crashing mid level lapse
rates steepen in a saturated environment. This will set the stage
for intense snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour at times along with a
low risk of thundersnow. Despite this system remaining progressive
with a duration limited to about 12 hrs...intense snowfall rates
will result in a fairly blockbuster/high end snowstorm. The only
uncertainty with the forecast is pinpointing exactly where the
heaviest snow bands set up, which is typically a challenge given the
mesoscale nature of these snow bands.
Timing and Snowfall Intensity...
Good model agreement on snow overspreading the region this morning
between 5 am and 8 am from west to east. Snow quickly becomes
moderate to heavy shortly after the onset. Precip will likely begin
as rain or a mix of rain and snow at the start across the south
coast of MA and RI including Cape Cod, before changing to all snow by
midday or so. Period of heaviest snow appears to occur from about 9
am to about noon across CT and western-central MA. Farther east into
RI and eastern MA heaviest snow will fall from about noon to 4 pm.
As mentioned above intense snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour will
develop during this time. Always difficult to pinpoint exactly where
these mesoscale bands setup. Typically a favorable location is in
the northern-northwest semi-circle of the H7 low which develops
across RI and eastern MA. In fact the new 03z SREF has probabilites
up to 60% for hourly snowfall rates of 3" across eastern CT-RI-
southeast MA...possibly clipping the Greater Boston area. Thus
increased confidence in these intense snowfall bands to develop from
eastern CT into RI and eastern MA...extending back into the
Worcester Hills. It's during this time that travel will become
extremely dangerous with snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour resulting
in near white out conditions.
Snowfall Accumulations...
Given 00z models have trended upward with widespread 1.0+" of qpf
and both global and high res guid approaching 2" of qpf along the
south coast of MA and RI. This supports a large swath of 12-18"
snowfall across the region. 18" amounts will be tied to the location
of where the stronger snow bands set up with the favorable locations
for this across eastern CT-RI and eastern MA extending back into the
Worcester Hills. A secondary max of 18" is possible along the coast
of Plymouth county and the upper Cape where OES contributions
increase late this afternoon and evening as much colder air streams
across the relatively warm ocean waters on gusty NNE winds. Isolated
20" amounts not out of the question especially if thundersnow
materializes.
Strong to Damaging Wind Potential...
00z model guidance has also trended upward regarding strong to
damaging winds as coastal wave bombs to a sub 980 mb low as it
tracks near the 40N/70W benchmark. All guid including model
soundings support a period of NNE winds up to 60 mph from 1 pm to 7
pm across the Cape and Islands. Blizzard warnings across this area
incorporate the risk for 60 mph wind gusts. The combination of winds
of this magnitude combined with wet snow for a period of time today
there is a low risk for isolated power outages across Cape Cod, the
islands and coastal Plymouth county. These winds combined with near
zero vsby in heavy snow will result blizzard conditions along with
considerable blowing and drifting snow.
Headlines...
No changes to headlines over land. Only change was to increase
snowfall totals and higher wind speeds for the Cape and Islands this
afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Tonight...
Snow...heavy at times lingers this evening across Cape Cod and
Nantucket...then tapering off toward midnight. Elsewhere snow tapers
off 4 pm to 7 pm from west to east. Despite snow ending gusty NNW
winds will result in considerable blowing and drifting especially
across RI and eastern MA where winds will be strongest. Very cold
air dives in on the backside of this departing coastal storm. Most
locations dip into the single digits tonight but combined with gusty
NNW winds, wind chills will be considerably colder.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...
* Snow showers on Saturday from clipper system.
* Mixed precipitation event appears more likely Sun into Mon.
* Seasonable temperatures for early to mid next week.
Overview and model preferences...
Noting that synoptic scale pattern remains relatively unchanged
through early next week. Following the trof associated with
today's storm, progressive pattern remains in place through the
weekend even as wave with associated clipper moves through Sat.
By late Sun into Mon, while there is good agreement on the
formation of a cutoff low pres at H5 but exactly where this sets
up will impact thermal profiles associated with an initial
inside runner. Beyond this, and because of the interactions with
longwave trof across Labrador and Greenland, there is some
question about how the pattern unfolds across the NE, as some
are more arctic influenced while other solutions remain
attached to the SE CONUS ridging. Once again, will lean more
heavily on ensemble means for this update, as they better
account for thermal profile possibilities than any one
deterministic model.
Details...
Fri...
Cold and dry with brief ridging of high pres. H92 temps warm
from -18C at the lowest at 12Z to -14C by 00Z Sat. This will
keep highs mainly in the 20s, possibly a few low 30s,
exacerbated by new snowpack. Mins Fri night likely fall into the
teens and could make the single digits except increasing low-
mid clouds and a risk for early AM snowfall. Wind chills remain
an issue, in the single digit below 0F to start the day, but
even at peak heating they will struggle to reach the lower
double digits above freezing. Wind gusts early 20-30 mph will
gradually fade toward the end of the day as pres gradient
slackens in response to peak ridging.
Sat into early Sun...
Still noting the passage of a modest clipper mainly across N
New England late Sat and Sat night. Weak overrunning combined
with PWATs near 0.75 inches suggest overall QPF values ranging
between 0.1 and 0.3 inches. Initial low lvl thermal profiles
support all snow, but H92 temps rise above 0F mainly S of the
Mass Pike by late day, which could lead to some changing to rain
and overall lowering of SLRs even further N with the influence
of warmer air. In fact, the omega associated with the warm
advection is so light, it will likely be unable to override the
warming. Therefore, maintain that any snow totals should remain
at most low end Advisory levels, but most likely below. Temps
closer to seasonal normals. Mainly upper 20s to upper 30s for
highs, while lows drop into the 20s.
Late Sun into Mon...
As mentioned above, a deepening wave with dual origins in
northern BC Provence and the eastern Pacific will gradually
deepened to a full fledged cutoff across New England by early
Mon morning. While initially, this suggests a parent inside-
runner, there has been a significant trend in the formation of a
secondary low near or even just off the SE Coast of New
England. This suggests thermal profile changes are in play,
initially warm enough for widespread rain. However, it could,
depending ultimately on the track of a secondary low, introduce
freezing rain/sleet or even a full fledged change to snow before
ending on Mon. In fact initial bufkit profiles already support
this transition in areas such as the Worcester Hills and
Berkshires. Too early to call based on complex interactions and
mesoscale forcing. However with 1.00 to 1.50 inch PWATs and the
additional convergence/deformation provided by another low pres
development could yield heavy rain or mixed precip it times
early Mon. Will need to watch this given the risk for another
round of wintry mix/snow for the early work week.
Tue...
Brief ridging will follow the strong secondary low pres exiting
to the E. Ensemble mean thermal profiles suggest temps mainly
near seasonal following this feature.
Wed and beyond...
If the suggested phasing of the trof from late weekend and
longwave trof over Labrador/Greenland verifies, will need to
watch for another cold storm system, however this requires all
plays leading up to this point to work out as progged. Still with
longwave trof upstream, will need to keep an eye on development
for this period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
12Z update...No significant changes, except to better time snow
onset this morning.
Snow overspreads through 14Z from west to east. Snow quickly
becomes moderate to heavy. Heaviest snow appears to fall 13z-17z
across CT and western-central MA...and 16z to 20z across RI and
eastern MA...lingering until 00z over Cape Cod and the islands.
During this time hourly snowfall rates of 2-4" at times are
likely. Low risk of thundersnow as well.
As for cigs and vsbys, VFR during the predawn hours quickly
lowering to IFR by 15z/16z. Then LIFR at times in heavy snow
15z-21z from west to east. NNE winds will gusts up to 45 kt this
afternoon and evening across southeast MA including Cape Cod and
the islands. Precip begins as rain along the south coast
including Cape Cod and the islands but changes over to snow this
afternoon.
Thursday night...high forecast confidence on trends but lower on
exact timing details.
IFR in snow heavy at times continues until about 03z across
Cape Cod and islands...then tapering off thereafter and
improving to MVFR.. Elsewhere drying trend develops with
conditions quickly improving to VFR. Big story here will be very
strong NNW winds up to 50 kt across Cape Cod and the Islands
21z-02z this evening. Winds not as strong elsewhere.
KBOS TAF...high forecast confidence in trends but slightly lower
in precise timing details. The terminal could drop to 1/4 mile
or less for a time in heavy snow from about 16z-20z.
KBDL TAF...high forecast confidence in trends but slightly lower
in precise timing details. The terminal could drop to 1/4 mile
or less for a time in heavy snow from about 13z-17z.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Main issue will be wind gusts, 25-35 kt out of the
NW.
Friday night into Saturday night...Moderate confidence.
Mix of MVFR/IFR at times with low CIGS and SHSN/SHRA. Light snow
accumulations. Winds generally at or below 10-15 kt, and will
veer from the SE to the W.
Sunday and Monday...Moderate Confidence.
Mix of IFR and LIFR possible depending on track of second low
pres center Sun night. The best chance for lowest conditions
would be in another round of SN, but some ice also possible.
Otherwise, widespread rain. Precipitation types remain a low
confidence forecast at this time, but have high confidence in
lower categories in spite of these uncertainties.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short Range /through Tonight/...
Today...
NNE winds increase and peak 1 pm to 7 pm with strongest winds up to
50+ kt across the south coastal waters northward into Cape Cod Bay
and the waters east of Cape Cod. This will result in seas rapidly
building to 15 to 20 ft across the eastern MA waters, but up to 25
ft possible east of Cape Cod. This is the result of rapidly
intensifying low from the DE coast to the 40N/70W benchmark this
afternoon and then into Georges bank this evening. Rain and snow
changing to all snow this afternoon will result in vsby near zero at
times.
Tonight...
NNE winds shift to NNW and drop from storm force to gales as coastal
low pulls away. Very cold air and gusty winds will result in
moderate freezing spray. Thus have issued a freezing spray advisory
for tonight. Snow results in poor vsby during the evening across
eastern MA waters but slowly improving after midnight.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday...High confidence.
Gale force winds continue through much of the daylight hours
Friday offshore. NW 35-40 kt expected with slightly weaker
winds near shore. Seas, peaking early in the morning around
15-18ft on the SE waters will gradually slacken through the day.
Freezing spray lingers, but more light than moderate.
Friday night into Saturday night...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas may briefly drop below Gale, then even small
craft thresholds during the late night/early morning Saturday
timeframe, but this will be short lived. On Sat and Sat night,
Winds will veer from SE to W through the day on Sat, but gusts
at times may reach 25 kt as seas also 5-6ft so small craft
advisories may be needed.
Sunday and Monday...Moderate confidence.
Low pres initially passes inland Sun, followed by the
development of a second deepening low pres Sun night which may
pass near or even over the waters. Depending on this
development, there is a risk for another round of gale force
winds. Otherwise, expect another round of small craft advisories
with building seas.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect along the Massachusetts
east and northeast facing shorelines for the mid to late morning
high tide. Waves and surge will be ramping up during that high tide.
Anticipate waves approaching 10 feet and a surge of 1 to 1.5 feet
around the time of high tide. This looks to be enough to produce
areas of minor coastal flooding and splashover along east/northeast
facing shorelines from Salisbury to Boston to Plymouth, along the
north side of the Cape from Sandwich to Dennis, Chatham, Nantucket,
and possibly Martha's Vineyard. We anticipate the stretch of
coastline most likely to be impacted to be from Hull to Plymouth.
Some erosion is also likely especially along the ocean side of the
outer Cape and the east side of Nantucket.
Although the surface wind would have backed around to the northwest,
there may be pockets of splashover at the time of the this evening
high tide due to a lingering and lengthening period swell. We also
noted that our experimental wave run-up procedure depicted some
splashover along the Gunrock section of Hull for the evening high
tide in response to that lingering swell, even though the evening
astronomical high tide is over a foot less than the morning high
tide in most locations.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for
CTZ002>004.
MA...Blizzard Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for MAZ019-
022>024.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for
MAZ002>018-020-021-026.
RI...Blizzard Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for RIZ008.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EST this evening
for ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
Freezing Spray Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Friday for ANZ231>235-250-251-254-255.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ230-236.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-251.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/Doody
NEAR TERM...Nocera/Doody
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Nocera/Doody
MARINE...Nocera/Doody
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...