NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 13, 9:05 PM EST, 5 hours 55 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 13, 9:05 PM EST, 5 hours 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1005 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous winter storm Tuesday morning. Low pressure developing
off the South Carolina coast this afternoon will become an
intense storm just east of New Jersey Tuesday afternoon. It then
tracks along the New England coast Tuesday night. A strong
northwest flow follows Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure
then builds across the region on Friday. Another storm system
should move southeast into southern New England Saturday
followed by high pressure by next Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Ocean County was inadvertently left out of the High Wind
Warning. It has been added.
A low pressure system is developing off the South Carolina
coast this evening and it will strengthen and lift northeastward
along the east coast overnight tonight. The low will be just
offshore of the southern Delmarva, adjacent to the Maryland
Beaches, by daybreak Tuesday. Precipitation has already begun
across srn Delaware and ne Maryland and flurries are also
occurring in parts of the Lehigh valley as well. Precipitation
will continue spreading across the area while increasing in
intensity overnight. Areas across far southern Delaware may have
a rain/snow mix, before becoming all rain overnight. The rest
of the area should start out as snow everywhere. For the
I-95/I-195 corridor, a period of snow/sleet mixture is expected
by daybreak Tuesday. Across portions of southern New Jersey and
Central Delaware, the precipitation could become a rain/sleet
mixture. For the rest of central/northern New Jersey and eastern
Pennsylvania, snow is expected to be the predominant
precipitation type.
Blizzard warning continue across parts of eastern Pennsylvania
as well as central/northern New Jersey since we expect a period
of heavy snow/blowing snow and gusty winds. Moderate to heavy
snow is expected to begin between midnight and 2 am, with the
period of heaviest snow and lowest conditions is between 4 am
and 10 am Tuesday morning. These area are expected to have the
highest snowfall amounts, with up to 2 feet possible in some
areas.
Winter storm warning continue over most of Srn NJ and parts of
Delmarva. Snowfall amounts across these areas will be highly
dependent on how much mixing occurs. For the warning, snowfall
amounts vary from as much as 4-6 inches across southern portions
of the warning, to as much as 6-10 inches across the northern
portions of the warning. For the advisory areas, around 1-2
inches of snow are possible.
Winds late tonight into Tuesday are expected to become very gusty,
with gusts along the coast reaching 50-60 mph and areas inland are
expected to gust 30-40 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Precipitation will be ongoing at the start of the day Tuesday as the
coastal low continues to pass just offshore of the Delaware and New
Jersey coasts during the day. The morning rush hour will be severely
affected across much of the area with moderate/heavy snow across the
northern half of the area, and some mixture of snow/sleet or
snow/sleet/rain across the southern areas. As the low passes to our
east by mid to late morning, cold air will likely begin moving back
into the area which could help change precipitation back to snow
across much of the area. Most snow accumulations should be during
the morning hours into early afternoon hours. Any precipitation
during the afternoon will likely become more showery in nature, but
still some accumulation is possible during the afternoon.
The strongest winds are expected to be during the morning into the
early afternoon hours with gusts along the coast continuing to reach
50-60 mph and inland areas are expected to gust 30-40 mph. Winds
will diminish through the day as the low pulls away from the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**cold pattern will be well established after this major snow and
sleet storm and will probably last into the last week of March**
500MB: Closed cold core aloft central and northern Appalachians
Tuesday night gradually shifts east and weakens off the east coast
Thursday night. The next strong short wave spinning east from
the northeast Pacific closed low will be crossing the Canadian
Rockies late Thursday then heading southeast from the Great Lakes
region in negative tilt fashion Saturday and maximizing its
potential across New England Sunday.
Temperatures: Daily average 15 to 18 degrees below normal Wednesday
and Thursday, in part because of the new snow cover. Temperatures
Friday still 10 to 15 below normal. Models diverge next Saturday
with options Saturday ranging from normal to 7 below normal.
Sunday and Monday should average 2 to 6 degrees below normal.
Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 12z/13 GFS/NAM mos Tuesday night
through Wednesday night, MEXMOS Thursday and thereafter WPC
guidance Thursday-next Monday.
The dailies...
This section will not update until 415 PM.
Tuesday night...additional small accumulations of an inch or
less in eastern PA and extreme northwest NJ with blowing and
drifting snow exposed farmland areas and the ridges.
Wednesday...Cold and blustery with snow showers or even a squall
possible, especially NJ as the cold trough aloft swings
eastward to the coast. Blowing snow will continue to pose a
hazard over the ridges of ne PA and nw NJ.
Wednesday night and Thursday...low level northwesterly flow pattern
for our region as the low pressure system continues to lift further
into the Canadian Maritimes. As a result of that, and some limited
instability, there is a small chance for snow showers across the
Poconos. Otherwise, cold and dry conditions will prevail for the
region. Highs on Thursday will be nearly 20 degrees below normal.
Friday through Sunday...Surface high briefly shifts over the region
during the day on Friday, before a shortwave trough could cross the
region Friday night into Saturday bringing a chance for precipitation.
Spent no time diagnosing since office energy was focused on the
impending major to severe storm. Still differences both run-
to-run and among models on the exact track and timing of this
trough, so have stayed close to the previous forecasts and a
blend of model solutions. Probably blustery Sunday. Confidence:
below average on any details.
Monday...Fair with diminishing wind. Low confidence on details.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
VFR conditions will deteriorate overnight, with low conditions
continuing into Tuesday. Snow is expected to spread across the
area this evening from south to north. All areas will become IFR
between 03-06z as snow spreads across the area. RDG/ABE will
remain all snow through the period, with a period of heavy snow
and 1/4 mile VSBY expected during the daylight morning hours.
The Delaware Valley TAFS from ILG-PHL- PNE-TTN will start out as
snow, then a mix of snow and sleet is expected to develop late
tonight into daybreak Tuesday, before changing back to snow
later in the morning. ACY/MIV are expected to start out as snow
briefly, then change over to sleet/snow/rain mix during the
overnight hours, with a change to all rain by daybreak Tuesday.
A rain/snow mix may develop again by late morning Tuesday for
ACY/MIV. All precipitation should change back to snow before it
ends during the afternoon.
Winds will generally be 5-10 knots out of the east to southeast for
the remainder of today, then increase out of the northeast overnight
tonight into Tuesday. Winds are expected to increase overnight
tonight through Tuesday and become quite gusty. Winds near RDG/ABE
are expected gust 25-35 knots by daybreak into the day Tuesday.
Winds for ILG/PHL/PNE/TTN are expected to gusty 30-40 knots. Winds
for ACY/MIV could gust around 40-50 knots. As the low pulls away
from the area during the afternoon, winds may begin to diminish
some. There will likely be areas of blowing and drifting snow for
areas where the heaviest snow occurs and little mixture of
precipitation occurs, especially for RDG/ABE/TTN.
Outlook...
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Conditions are expected to gradually
improve to VFR conditions. Still some brief scattered MVFR conds
possible in residual cold trough snow showers. Northwest wind
gusts 20 kt Tuesday night and 30 kt Wednesday.
Wednesday night through Friday...mostly VFR conditions are
expected. Still a gusty northwest flow Wednesday night and
Thursday.
Friday night...There is a chance for snow showers reducing
visibility and ceilings to MVFR or lower, primarily late Friday
night.
Saturday...Probably VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong coastal storm will lift northward along the east coast
tonight, passing near the Delaware and New Jersey coastal waters on
Tuesday. Strong winds will develop across the waters late tonight
through Tuesday, with storm force winds expected across the Atlantic
coastal water, and lower Delaware Bay. Upper Delaware Bay is
expected to have strong gale force conditions. The Storm Warning and
Gale Warning were left unchanged.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...strong SCA or low end Gale
force conditions may linger, but should generally diminish especially
Wednesday night.
Thursday...SCA conditions are expected. There is a small chance of
gale force gusts on the lower bay and coastal waters.
Friday...winds and seas should diminish below SCA criteria early in
the day.
Saturday...No headlines currently anticipated. Confidence: Below
average for Saturday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect from 7:00 AM until
3:00 PM Tuesday for coastal areas of New Jersey and Delaware,
including the back bays, Raritan Bay and Delaware Bay. A Coastal
Flooding Advisory is in effect for New Castle County, Delaware
and Salem County, New Jersey from 11:00 AM until 3:00 PM
Tuesday.
An onshore flow was already beginning to develop along our coast
this afternoon. Low pressure is forecast to intensify rapidly from
late tonight into Tuesday as it moves from near Cape Hatteras to the
waters off the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey. A very strong
onshore flow will develop during that time frame with sustained gale
force winds and gusts in excess of 50 knots.
We will continue to put some weight on the more aggressive ESTOFS
surge guidance. While not accepting ESTOFS totally, we will continue
to go above the consensus of the other surge guidance. In recent
similar events, the guidance has had a tendency to catch up with
reality as the event nears. We see no reason to think that trend
will not take place with this storm, especially being that it will
rapidly strengthen off our coast.
The very strong onshore flow will result in a good deal of wave
action that will enhance the coastal flooding and will cause
significant beach erosion.
Minor flooding is anticipated for the far upper Delaware Bay and the
far lower tidal Delaware River.
We are not expecting any tidal flooding issues on the upper eastern
shore of Chesapeake Bay.
Some lingering minor coastal flooding is possible around Tuesday
night's high tide.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RDG new record low this morning with 14 degrees around 713 AM.
March 14 daily records pcpn related and snowfall. We'll know
more at 330 PM this afternoon.
For what its worth some of this storms pcpn will occur prior to
05z/14 so that the liquid water equivalent values will be difficult
to exceed. The daily snowfall records will be much easier to exceed,
at least thats what we think as of this Monday morning's issuance.
ACY 1.57 - 1884 0.9-1904
PHL 1.56 - 1956 4.7-1999
ILG 1.65 - 1956 2.0-1999
ABE 1.32 - 1997 8.4-1958
TTN 1.56 - 1956
GED 2.33 - 1993
RDG 1.68 - 1913
MPO 2.04 - 1993
Record lows the 16th and 17th... it could be close for several of
these stations.
16TH 17TH
ACY 15-1992, 1893 14-1885
PHL 16-1916 10-1885
ILG 10-1991 14-1911
ABE 11-1993 13-1967
TTN 13-1916 11-1916
RDG 10-1993 7-1900
MPO 0-1916 12-1916
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ054-055-060>062-
101>106.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ070-071.
NJ...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ001-007>010-
012>015.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
NJZ012>014-020>027.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ016>022-026-
027.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ020-
022>027.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ023>025.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
NJZ016.
DE...Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
DEZ002>004.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ001.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for DEZ003-
004.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
DEZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ002.
MD...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ008-012.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ015-019-
020.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 2 AM to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ431-450>455.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430.
&&
Synopsis...Drag
Near Term...Robertson/O'Hara
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Drag
Aviation...Drag/Robertson/O'Hara
Marine...Drag/Robertson
Tides/Coastal Flooding...
Climate...