An incoming front brought high winds to several locations in southwest Oregon, mostly along the south coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to several locations in southwest Oregon, mostly along the south coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 3, 8:37 AM PST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
837 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2017
.DISCUSSION...The latest Satellite image shows a band of
precipitation already in southwest Oregon and the next one just
west of the marine waters. The current band of precipitation will
gradually move east to northeast during the course of the day and
the next one will reach the coast around midday, then move onshore
this afternoon. It was windy yesterday afternoon and evening in
the Shasta Valley and south end of the Rogue Valley, but they have
since decreased last night and this morning due in part to
ongoing rainfall and a more relaxed pressure gradient. Guidance
still suggest winds will increase again later this morning and
afternoon and the models suggest gusty winds in these areas. The
main question is do they get to warning criteria. As mentioned in
the previous discussion. Confidence is low high wind criteria
will be met in the Shasta Valley. We'll take a closer look at this
and consider downgrading to an advisory if there's enough
evidence to support this.
Otherwise a preliminary look at some of the new guidance does not
show any significant changes from this evening through Saturday.
However they have come into better agreement with the track of the
surface low on Sunday which will make for a tricky wind forecast
along the coast and marine waters. Taking things at face value
suggest Cape Blanco be the dividing line between gusty south
and north winds. This will be looked at in more detail this
morning. -Petrucelli
&&
.AVIATION...03/12Z TAF Cycle...A couple of disturbances will bring a
mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings and visibilities with periods of mainly
light to moderate precipitation through Saturday morning. The
freezing level will be around 5500 to 6000 FT. Conditions will be
worst on southwest facing slopes, such as along the Curry County
coast and in the Mount Shasta area, due to upslope heavier
precipitation and lower ceilings/visibility. There will also be
gusty low level southerly winds with 15 to 30 KT winds and gusts to
45 KT common at the coast, over the mountains, in the Shasta Valley,
and across the east side. /DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 500 AM PST Friday 3 February 2017...
A strong front today and another tonight will bring southerly gales
with high and very steep seas. Seas will reach a long lasting peak
of around 13 to 17 feet at 10 to 11 seconds late this morning
through this evening. Conditions will slightly and briefly improve
on Saturday with southerly winds near or above advisory strength
while seas remain high and very steep at 10 to 12 feet at 10 seconds.
Winds and seas are likely to increase on Sunday as another low moves
into the waters. There is uncertainty regarding the track of the low.
If it moves toward the central Oregon coast, gales are possible
across the waters. But, a majority of the 00Z models take the low
toward Cape Blanco which would restrict gales to the area from Cape
Blanco southward. Wind wave and fresh southerly swell dominated
seas are likely reach a new peak late on Sunday afternoon or evening.
The pattern will remain active next week with gradually improving
conditions Monday into Wednesday although short period seas will
likely remain steep. Another front may bring higher winds and seas
around Thursday. /DW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2017/
SHORT TERM...IR satellite imagery shows low pressure centered
near 43.1N and 131.2W early this morning. This system will send
multiple disturbances onshore today through this evening resulting
in periods of rain, gusty winds and mainly high elevation snow.
One area of light to moderate precipitation is moving through
areas from Siskiyou County northward up along the Cascades and
this will impact the East Side over the next couple of hours.
Meanwhile, cold air that bled southward down the east slopes of
the Cascades into northern Klamath and Lake Counties overnight
will be overrun by this moisture. As a result, we expect some snow
that will eventually mix with and change to sleet and freezing
rain from Chiloquin to Chemult, Crescent and portions of the
Christmas Valley this morning. A winter weather advisory is in
effect until 10 am this morning (WSWMFR). Then, south winds will
strengthen to warning levels (NPWMFR) over the East Side by late
this morning and this should be able to scour out most of the cold
air. Expect most of the precipitation to turn to plain rain this
afternoon, except at the highest elevations above 5000 feet. The
Cascades near Crater Lake (above 5500 feet) will likely get 10-20
inches of snow today through Saturday morning.
Elsewhere, gusty winds will also occur in the Shasta Valley near
Weed. Confidence wasn't high enough to downgrade the warning, but
suspect we'll see mainly advisory level winds there today through
tonight.
The low will gradually push east-northeastward and move onshore
tonight. A period of gusty winds may accompany the frontal system
along the coast, but should remain below warning strength. The
heaviest rainfall will likely be in the favored orographic areas
of Curry County and also in western Siskiyou County.
Another disturbance will move through tonight into Saturday in the
prevailing southwest flow aloft. This will focus precipitation
over the terrain and along the coast, but rain is likely just
about everywhere west of the Cascades. Precipitation chances
diminish east of the Cascades.
A cold front will push onshore Saturday night and this will lower
the snow level briefly down to 4500 feet. But, the front will
stall nearby Sunday allowing another area of low pressure off the
California Coast to ride east-northeastward along it. This will
bring another round of strong winds and rain. Models have been
struggling with how far north this low will come, but it looks
pretty strong with 850mb winds reaching 65-70 kt along the coast.
The ECMWF/GEM bring the low a bit farther north than the other
guidance, which would keep the heaviest precipitation focused
north of Douglas County, but would also bring stronger winds. A
farther south solution like the GFS/NAM would still bring strong
winds to the coast (mainly south of Cape Blanco), but would focus
heavy rainfall over our coastal zones and portions of inland
Douglas County. Since there is still some uncertainty with the
track of the low, have held off any watches at this time. But the
potential is there for another high wind event for the coast,
Shasta Valley and East Side. If rainfall is heavy enough Sunday,
there is also some potential for urban and lowland flooding of
creeks/streams, though main stem rivers are not forecast to flood
at this time. -Spilde
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Night...The blocking ridge
over Alaska will be the primary source of uncertainty regarding
the forecast during the extended term, as the models have not been
handling systems moving around or under this ridge very well. As
a result, model runs over the past several days have been very
inconsistent with the timing and strength of various waves and
frontal systems. While confidence in details remains low, the
general pattern does remain consistent. The forecast area will
remain under cyclonic flow aloft, and with several shortwaves
traversing or undercutting the ridge upstream, there will be
periods of showers and wind. Have therefore kept at least a slight
chance of precipitation in the forecast during each period, with
higher chances here and there to illustrate the best chances for
passing systems.
Snow levels and temperatures have also swung back and forth with
each subsequent run. The latest model tuns are producing a colder
air mass over the area Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed
by much warmer temperatures Wednesday into Thursday. The resulting
forecast places snow levels down to almost 1500 feet Tuesday
morning, then well above all but the highest peaks by Wednesday
evening. This is a new pattern in the model suites, so will need to
monitor the next few runs and update as necessary. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Saturday for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
ORZ029>031.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for ORZ027.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ026.
CA...High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Saturday for CAZ085.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for CAZ085.
High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 7 AM PST Sunday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
652 AM PST FRI FEB 3 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM HEAVY RAIN GOLD BEACH 42.41N 124.42W
02/03/2017 M0.94 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 7
HOURS.
&&
CZSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
706 AM PST FRI FEB 3 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0705 AM HEAVY RAIN BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
02/03/2017 M1.00 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
24 HOURS.
&&
CZSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
APRSWXNET/CWOP station E4856 at Brookings reported a gust to 60 mph at 03/1132 PST. The Flynn Prairie RAWS recorded a gust to 61 mph at 03/1813 PST and to 60 mph at 03/1713 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, February 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 668880.