Wildfire in Oklahoma, February 3, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1126 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The February 2-3, 2016 06 UTC TAF discussion follows:

&&

.AVIATION...
Stratus deck with VFR to MVFR conditions is expected to persist
from near I-44 to the southeast through the overnight hours.
Greatest confidence for MVFR ceilings will be at KSPS/KLAW with
lower confidence farther north (KOKC/KOUN). Expect any stratus to
dissipate by mid-morning. Otherwise, northeasterly winds will veer
to the southeast through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 850 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated hourly temperatures through 14Z Friday morning.

DISCUSSION...
Opted to raise hourly/low temperatures a few degrees where
the greatest low-level cloud cover has been observed--generally
along and southeast of I-44.

Most short-term guidance (NAM12/HRRR/HRRRX) suggests these low
clouds (2500-4500 ft stratus) will remain quasi-persistent through
the overnight hours, which should keep temperatures slightly
warmer than the previous forecast. Otherwise, no significant
changes were made to the forecast.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/

AVIATION...
Stratus deck is expected to remain nearly unchanged through much of
the overnight period. Will need to watch for the possibility of
OKC/OUN dropping into MVFR category, otherwise will maintain MVFR
ceilings at LAW/SPS. Expect ceilings to become VFR around or just
after sunrise with light east/northeast surface winds.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST Thu Feb 2 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early this afternoon, the cold front that passed through our area
yesterday is approaching the Texas coast and extends westward
through the Rio Grande Valley. Much of the southern Plains was
experiencing cold temperatures with north/northeasterly low level
flow. Even areas of Oklahoma that have seen clear skies today have
struggled to rise through the 30s. Mid to upper 30s were common
across the area, with 40s being confined to the southeast portion
of the forecast area.

280-290k isentropic surfaces in the short term models show
neutral to weak ascent and are saturated or nearly saturated. Using
this guidance to anticipate spatial evolution of low stratus
suggests little expansion or dissipation until late tonight or early
tomorrow morning when mean winds in this layer veer and advect
drier air in. Latest water vapor loop shows a zonal flow regime
aloft and a fairly extensive plume of mid-high level moisture
streaming east-northeast from the Pacific across the western
CONUS. This is occurring ahead of a deep closed low off the
California/Oregon coast. One minor shortwave trough that ejects
eastward quickly will have little consequence on our weather other
than augmenting mid-high level moisture/clouds resulting in cirrus
overspreading our area late today through tomorrow.

In response to the second in a series of shortwave troughs, low
level flow will turn southerly tomorrow night advecting moisture and
low stratus northward into the area once again. Our earlier
forecasts expressed concern over the depth of low level saturation
being great enough late tomorrow night into Saturday for drizzle,
but confidence in low level moisture being deep enough for drizzle
has lessened some. We have retained very low probabilities of
measurable precipitation across the southern portion of the area,
and mentioned very light rain and patchy drizzle. Forecast
soundings suggest this variety of precipitation is most likely (if
precipitation occurs at all) given the saturation being confined
to low levels beneath pronounced mid level warm layer.

In the wake of the second wave, veering low level flow should
support warmer temperatures beginning in the west Saturday where
clouds will clear out during the afternoon. Warmer temperatures
are anticipated across the entire area Sunday into early next
week. A slightly more amplified and broader shortwave trough
approaching on Monday may be enough for more favorable thermal
profiles for showers across eastern portions of the area. There
may be weak instability present, supportive of thunder.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  25  41  30  54 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         24  43  32  63 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  29  48  36  58 /   0   0  20  20
Gage OK           19  39  28  69 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     22  40  28  55 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         34  48  35  46 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

10/30/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
507 PM CST THU FEB 2 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-032315-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
507 PM CST THU FEB 2 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT
TUESDAY.

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