What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 1:58 PM EST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 1:58 PM EST, 1 hour 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
258 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable temperatures and mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. A front will push
through the area Saturday night, bringing somewhat drier and cooler
air for Sunday and Monday. More humid and unsettled weather are
expected by Tuesday as that front creeps back into the area from
the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop over the mtns/foothills and back across n Georgia and ern
TN. Area east of the Blue Ridge seems primed for another round
of scattered strong/severe storms again this afternoon/early eve,
with sbCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg. Similar to yesterday,
we should have another excellent downburst environment with mid
level dry air and dCAPE greater than 800 J/kg. Expect a few severe
storms with wind damage the primary threat. The shear is a bit
stronger today, so it will be interesting to see if the storms
can get better organized along cool pools.
Otherwise...the pattern remains persistent, although slowly
progressive, so a refresher on what happened the last few nights
just to our west is instructive. Each night, nocturnal convection
has developed closer to the trof axis, and that seems reasonable
tonight, but with the activity shifted shifted eastward by a
few hundred miles and over the NC mtns. So, after the convective
activity wanes later this evening, have kept a chance of precip
across the NC zones through the overnight hours. On Monday, the
trof axis should move slowly east across the fcst area with the
main short wave moving overhead in the afternoon. The fcst reflects
this with a chance of precip shifting east during the morning and
then to the south in the afternoon. Severe weather chances not as
good as the last few days with better dCAPE kept to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday: a long wave trough axis will set up roughly
along the Appalachians for Saturday and Sunday. This should be far
enough east to allow a cold front to push completely thru the CWFA
and usher in some drier, more stable air into the area. The 12z
model consensus looks a bit drier overall than previous runs,
depicting a 1020 mb high building across the Ohio Valley. Saturday
should see at least some isolated showers and tstms as the front
pushes thru and dry air slowly works in from the NW, but moisture
convergence looks weak. By Sunday morning, conditions should be dry.
Temps will be near to slightly above normal Saturday and near to
slightly below normal (with noticeably less humidity) on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thu: The stalled out front to our south will begin to
drift north Sunday night into Monday which will slowly increase
moisture over southern areas at first. Weak high pressure will
remain over much of western North Carolina through Monday. A
shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday will
have an associated weak cold front moving southeast which may help
to initiate convection for areas north of I-40 by Tuesday evening.
This front to our north will become stationary or nearly so
remaining near the northern parts of WV and VA going into late week.
Upper support for the front moving south will be minimal We will be
in a typical summer pattern of diurnal chances of afternoon and
evening showers and storms.
After weekend Min Temps being near or a little below normal, all Mas
and Mins through the rest of the medium range should be near steady
state normal.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR stratocu early this afternoon across the Piedmont
will eventually develop and give way to showers/storms developing
to the west. The situation is persistent, lending creedence to the
idea that another round of TSRA will move across or at least very
near the air field later today, in spite of the differences in the
convection-allowing model guidance. Thus, have opted for a TEMPO for
TSRA in the 21Z-01Z time frame. Environment is supportive of strong
downbursts, so gusty winds are expected near any storms. Showers
should linger into the mid evening, followed by convective debris
cloudiness overnight. The upper trof will be closer to our region
Friday morning, suggesting a better chance for precip on Friday
morning as has been seen off to the west the last few mornings. This
possibility will not be included in the fcst at this time, instead
have opted to bring the chance in at 15Z with morning heating. Wind
should stay SW when not influenced by thunderstorm outflows.
Elsewhere: Again, a persistence forecast, and similar to KCLT. Will
attempt to get the timing for storms in the late afternoon/early
evening. Nocturnal convection a better possibility over the mtns,
but will keep the chances down in the 30 pct range. KAVL and KHKY
also have the best chance of seeing any restrictions overnight.
Outlook: Moist and unsettled weather will continue through Saturday.
Thunderstorms may become more numerous Friday as an upper wave
passes followed by a cold front. Nocturnal restrictions can be
expected in any locations receiving heavy rainfall, and also in
the mountain valleys. Some drying is indicated by Sunday into
early next week.
Confidence Table...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 96% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PMHazardous weather outlook, Jul 6, 3:06 PM EST, 39 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
406 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-072015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
406 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region
through the evening hours. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning is
possible with any of these thunderstorms. A few of these storms are
expected to produce damaging wind gusts.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds to our office.
ARK
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 6, 3:20 PM EST, 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
420 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-019-062100-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
420 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL ELBERT...
SOUTHEASTERN HART...SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...
At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Hartwell, or near Iva, moving east at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Abbeville, Honea Path, Ware Shoals, Due West, Iva, Lake Secession,
Donalds, Starr, Hodges and Lowndesville.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible over
these areas.
LAT...LON 3417 8287 3446 8280 3446 8230 3445 8228
3443 8228 3443 8226 3442 8226 3440 8224
3440 8223 3439 8223 3439 8222 3406 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 275DEG 28KT 3427 8270
JPTSpecial weather statement, Jul 6, 3:27 PM EST, 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
427 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
NCZ068-070-SCZ008-009-062115-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-
427 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...SOUTH
CENTRAL GASTON...NORTHWESTERN YORK AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM EDT...
At 427 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Gaffney, or near Blacksburg, moving east at 20 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
York, Gastonia, South Gastonia, Clover, Blacksburg, Grover, Patterson
Springs, Earl, Smyrna and Kings Mountain State Park.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible over
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3493 8111 3501 8158 3525 8156 3523 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 275DEG 18KT 3510 8148
JPT
Local storm report, Jul 6, 3:31 PM EST, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0344 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW POWDERSVILLE 34.80N 82.51W
07/06/2017 ANDERSON SC 911 CALL CENTER
911 CALL CENTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE
TOWN OF POWDERSVILLE.
&&
LECSpecial weather statement, Jul 6, 3:31 PM EST, 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
431 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
NCZ065-507>510-062115-
Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
431 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND CENTRAL POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...
At 431 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Columbus, or near Chimney Rock State Park, moving east
at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Rutherfordton, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave, Spindale, Shingle
Hollow, Green Hill, Mill Spring, Edneyville, Lake Adger and Union
Mills.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible over
these areas.
LAT...LON 3524 8194 3531 8235 3549 8233 3549 8231
3546 8225 3550 8223 3551 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 274DEG 13KT 3540 8226
JPTLocal storm report, Jul 6, 3:35 PM EST, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW POWDERSVILLE 34.78N 82.54W
07/06/2017 ANDERSON SC 911 CALL CENTER
911 CALL CENTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN
SOUTHERN EASLEY.
&&
LECSpecial weather statement, Jul 6, 3:43 PM EST, 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
443 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
NCZ068-504>506-508-062130-
Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Cleveland NC-
Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
443 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...
NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHWESTERN
BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...
At 443 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Marion, or 4 miles east of Old Fort, moving east
at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Marion, Drexel, Glen Alpine, Casar, Lake James State Park,
South Mountains State Park, Lake James, Valdese and Lake Rhodhiss.
Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible over
these areas.
LAT...LON 3578 8156 3544 8155 3553 8206 3553 8214
3574 8212 3580 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 275DEG 25KT 3561 8211
JPT